Chance (29 June 2025)
"Does Iran Have Nuclear Weapons?"


 
Hello John and Doves,
 
Connecting some dots....
 
Does Iran already have nuclear weapons?
 
Over the years, I have written several letters on the IAEA's reports on Iran - all of them tell of being put in blinders, lied too, deceived - cameras have been removed or shut off, inspectors have been denied access, specific inspectors have not been allowed in, certain areas have been 'off limits'.  There has been much deception, much hidden.  The IAEA reports have been marginalized and incomplete on Iran's nuclear advancement and nuclear capabilities.
 
Here's my letter on the IAEA's August 2024 report on Iran's nuclear program:
 
Back then the IAEA said Iran's 'breakout' time for a nuclear device was zero.  They could quickly make nuclear explosives in days.
The IAEA's August Report on Iran's Nuclear Program and the Twelver Shiia Muslims
 
We've heard for years that Iran was "6 months away from a bomb", "8 weeks away from a bomb", and on and on.  Years of this. And just recently, 'Iran is two weeks away from a warhead'.  Their centrifuges have not been idle.  
 
Even the IAEA has said in repeated reports that Iran was actively and aggressively pursuing a bomb.
 
There are 'rumors' that Iran already has a dozen plus nuclear warheads.  Maybe Iran doesn't 'need to come to the table' because they have accomplished what they set out to do.  Their goal remains the same.  They are Twelvers and they want an apocalypse to bring back their Mahdi to set up a worldwide caliphate.  They absolutely believe this.
 
And they have threated to nuke the capitols of Europe.  Are they bluffing??
 
In February of 2023, the IAEA found uranium enriched to 83.7% at Fordow.  That was TWO YEARS ago.
UN report: Uranium particles enriched to 83.7% found in Iran | AP News
 
The IAEA May 31, 2025 Report on Iran:
 
The most recent IAEA report, May 31, 2025, noted that "One has to conclude that Iran's real intent is to be prepared to produce large quantities of WGU (weapons grade uranium, 90%) as quickly as possible, in as few centrifuges as possible."
 
Iran can convert its current stock of 60 percent enriched uranium into 233 kg of WGU in three weeks at the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant, enough for 9 nuclear weapons, taken as 25 kg of weapon-grade uranium (WGU) per weapons.
 
Iran can produce its first quantity of 25 kg of WGU in Fordow in as little as two to three days.
 
Breaking out in both Fordow and the Natanz Fuel Enrichment Plant, the two facilities together could produce enough WGU for 11 nuclear weapons in the first month, enough for 15 nuclear weapons by the end of the second month, 19 by the end of the third month, 21 by the end of the fourth month, and 22 by the end of the fifth month.
 
In front of the inspector's eyes, Iran is undertaking the near-final step of breaking out, now converting it's 20 percent stock of enriched uranium into 60 percent enriched uranium at a greatly expanded rate.
 
The IAEA's efforts to verify Iran's nuclear activities, particularly its uranium enrichment activities, continue to be seriously affected by Iran's decision last fall to withdraw the designation of several experienced inspectors.  The IAEA repeatedly requested that Iran reconsider this inappropriate, political act, including in a June 2024 Board of Governors censure resolution, but Iran has not done so.  The IAEA states in its accompanying report, NPT Safeguards Agreement with the Islamic Republic of Iran:  "The withdrawal of the designation of several experienced inspectors was also not in line with the required spirit of cooperation."
 
As of May 17, 2025, the net overall enriched uranium stock, including all levels of enrichment and all chemical forms, had increased by 953.2 kg, from 8294.4 kg to 9247.6 kg (Uranium mass)
 
As of May 17, 2025, Iran's stockpile of 60 percent HEU in the form of uranium hexafluoride was 408.6 kg.  This represents a net increase in the stock in the form of uranium hexaflouride of 133.8 kg since the previous reporting period.''
 
The IAEA reports that it has lost continuity of knowledge in relation to the production and current inventory of centrifuges, rotors and bellows, heavy water and UOC (uranium ore concentrate), while it will not be possible to restore.
 
The IAEA concludes that Iran's decision to remove all of the Agency's equipment previously installed in Iran for JCPOA-related surveillance and monitoring activities has also had detrimental implications for the Agency's ability to provide assurance of the peaceful nature of Iran's nuclear programme.
 
Although the IAEA can ascertain the number of centrifuges deployed at Fordow and Natanz, it cannot know how many more Iran has made and stores or deployed at an undeclared site.  A risk that Iran will accumulate a secret stock of advanced centrifuges, deployable in the future at a clandestine enrichment plant, which would only need to house a relatively few advanced centrifuge cascades to enrich Iran's current stock of 60 percent HEU (highly enriched uranium, 60%) to WGU (90% enriched).  At the least, this situation complicates any future verification effort and contributes to uncertainty about the status of Iran's nuclear activities and facilities.
 
Combined with Iran's refusal to resolve outstanding safeguards violations and the program's unresolved nuclear weapons dimensions, the IAEA has a significantly reduced ability to monitor Iran's complex and growing nuclear program.  The IAEA's ability to detect diversion of nuclear materials, equipment and other capabilities to undeclared facilities remains greatly diminished.
 
Fordow has emerged as a multipurpose facility that can produce 60% enriched uranium then easily produce 90% weapons grade uranium.
 
60% enriched uranium possesses a significant breakout risk, since it is a short step away from weapons grade uranium.  In fact, in terms of enrichment requirements, 60% enriched uranium is 99% of the way to 90% weapon grade uranium.
 
Under a civilian cover, Iran has thoroughly practiced the main steps of breakout.  It can go directly from 5% to 60% enrichment.
 
In December 2024, Iran dramatically increased their production of 60% enriched uranium.  Iran has no use or justification for the production of 60% enriched uranium, particularly at the level of hundreds of kilograms.
 
It's rush to make much more of the 60% enriched uranium, quickly depleting its stock of near 20% enriched uranium, which has a civilian use in research reactors, raises more questions.
 
Iran has gone way beyond an excuse of using 60% as bargaining leverage in nuclear negotiations.
 
One has to conclude that Iran's real intent is to be prepared to produce large quantities of weapons grade uranium as quickly as possible in as few centrifuges as possible.  As discussed, it can do this now.
 
Iran's formal 'breakout' time remains at ZERO.  It has enough 60% enriched uranium to directly fashion 10 nuclear explosives.
 
Some Closing Thoughts:

In one month, from April to May this year, Iran increased their 60% enriched uranium by almost 1,000 kg.   And 134 kg more of uranium hexafluoride.  Even the IAEA said Iran was in a BIG hurry to breakout with a nuclear weapon.  According to the IAEA, one weapon requires 27 kg of weapon grade uranium.
 
Did Iran go ahead with the enrichment and produce weapon grade uranium (WGU)?  The IAEA does not know - but reported that Iran was on the way to doing this.
 
It seems reasonable to assume that Iran made the breakout, anticipating that at some point Israel and/or the U.S. would do massive attacks on their nuclear facilities.  Israel did a massive attack on June 15, 2025 and the U.S. hit the 3 nuclear facilities hard on June 21/22.   Iran has had plenty of time to reach their goal of becoming a nuclear state.
 
Scott Horton, ex CIA said that Fordo is 400 meters underground (that's 1200 feet) and its covered with concrete, granite and steel.  The U.S. had thought about BBBs years ago - actually creating these huge bombs for Fordow and testing them at White Sands, decided not to go ahead with bombing it.  Too deep.  Too hardened.
 
Last April 2024, WarNews24/7 (a site I found to be credible) reported that Russia informed Netanyahu that Iran had nuclear weapons.  According to the IAEA reports that year, they expected it.
 
Is it just too scary to think Iran has been enriching to 90%?  They've certainly had the time and the means.  And why would they not?  That's been their goal all along.
 
Just connecting the dots, I don't think it's much of a stretch to say Iran is a nuclear state now.
 
I think the U.S. and Israel, for whatever reason, haven't announced this possibility, maybe because they don't have actual proof of a nuclear weapon, and they are still saying Iran does not have nuclear weapons.  And that now, the U.S. has destroyed Iran's ability to make a nuclear bomb.  President Trump made a point of saying Iran didn't have any nuclear weapons.  He absolutely doesn't know this.  Is this just wishful thinking?  Not wanting to cause a panic?  Does he think we can't handle that possibility??
 
Do the Twelvers have nuclear warheads?  They have the ICBMs that can reach the East Coast.  Why would they have those, if they didn't have the warheads for them?  And they probably have tankers with launchers on them they can move near a coastline.  They can reach the capitols of Europe - they've already threatened to nuke them.
 
"Russia's Security Council said on 21 June that attempts to dismantle Iran's nuclear program are unlikely to succeed and could backfire.  The council warned that Tehran might resort to deploying nuclear weapons - if it possesses such arms - in response to external threats.  The Russian body did not provide evidence that Iran already has a nuclear arsenal, and Tehran has consistently denied pursuing nuclear weapons."
Russia Warns Iran Could Use Nuclear Arms if Threatened | DeepNewz Middle East
 
Was, "if it possesses such arms" a wink, wink?  Knowing every one is still denying this. 
 
Add that to the WarNews report that Russia warned Netanyahu in 2024 that Iran has the bomb.
 
The question then would be:  how many do they have?  One would be bad enough - but if they have dozens....we just don't know.
 
Are we close to finding out that Iran is nuclear??
 
This IS our war.  It's the whole world's war.  As Iran moves toward world dominion, conversion won't be an 'option' - convert or die.
 
The IAEA report is very damning.  And sobering.  We know the U.S. and Israel have seen this report.  They can connect the dots much better than us.  And it doesn't look good, no matter who is connecting the dots.  
 
Pray for the peace of Jerusalem!
 
Maranatha!
 
Chance