Hello John and Doves,
The quarterly report of
the International Atomic Energy Agency dated August 29, 2024
is quite sobering concerning Iran's nuclear capabilities.
Iran has three known
plants the IAEA has monitored at some point - Natanz, Fordow
and Esfahan.
The IAEA's
report notes that Iran's breakout time (time to produce
weapons grade uranium - 90% - for a nuclear device) is
ZERO. Iran could quickly make nuclear
explosives within days.
Iran could quickly
enrich its 60 percent HEU (highly enriched uranium) using
four advanced centrifuge cascades that are already
installed,it could directly fashion four nuclear
weapons.
Using its known 20 and
60 percent enriched uranium, Iran could produce nine nuclear
weapons in one month. Iran could produce multiple quantities
of 25 kg of WGU (weapons grade uranium) in a week - 25 kg is
enough for one nuclear weapon. In the next month they
could have another three nuclear weapons.
The IAEA admits these
are conservative estimates and their monitoring of Iran's
nuclear program has been greatly hindered by Iran.
The IAEAd reported that
they are unable to detect diversion of nuclear materials and
equipment to secret locations. Based on this diminished
monitoring, they reported very conservatives estimates of
nuclear weapon production.
IAEA Findings:
Iran can produce more
weapon-grade uranium since the IAEA's last report in May
2024 due to increased stocks of enriched uranium and a
greatly enlarged advanced centrifuge capacity.
Iran has enough enriched
uranium (at 25 kilograms per weapon) for nine nuclear
weapons in one month, 12 in two months, 13 in three months,
14 in four months and 15 in five months.
Iran can produce its
first quantity of weapons grade uranium (WGU) in about one
week. The IAEA would have difficulty detecting this
breakout.
With the installation of
eight more IR-6 centrifuge cascades at the deeply buried
Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant since the last report means
that Fordow alone could allow Iran to breakout within
days. With careful planning in advance and
placement of all the stocks of 20 and 60 percent enriched
uranium at the Fordow Plant, it could produce enough WGU for
four nuclear weapons in about two weeks and enough for
almost six in a month. By the end of the second month,
it could make enough WGU for nine nuclear weapons. The
installation of more IR-6 centrifuge cascades, as planned,
would worsen the situation.
Iran has made it very
difficult for the IAEA inspectors to really see what Iran is
doing. Iran is able to move their stocks of uranium
without the IAEA being aware of where they are going.
The report also noted
that Iran has used its stock of uranium extensively to
produce new 20 percent and 60 percent enriched uranium, far
beyond Iran's civilians needs. And Iran has not turned
over data or footage associated with monitoring devices and
cameras - Iran has prevented inspectors from seeing it's
program - and Iran refused to install new surveillance
cameras. Essentially keeping the IAEA blinded to it's
nuclear program.
Iran could move its
stocks of HEU and WGU without being detected. Iran has
nearly 10,600 advanced centrifuges installed at Natanz
Fordow, which most are deployed at the Natanz Fuel
Enrichment Plant (FEP)
During the reporting
period, Iran installed eight new IR-6 cascades at Fordow,
for a total of 10 IR-6 cascades, two or which are currently
operation. Iran plans to install at total of 160 IR-6
cascades at Fordow.
Iran's contention has
been that their primary goal is to accumulate 4-5 percent
enriched uranium for use in nuclear power reactor
fuel. Instead, Iran has used this stock extensively to
produce near 20 percent and 60 percent enriched uranium, far
beyond Iran's civilian needs.
The IAEA has not been
able to inspect other locations in Iran.
The IAEA believes that
Iran could accumulate a secret stock of advanced
centrifuges to be used at clandestine enrichment plants or
during a breakout. Iran has proven its ability to
secretly move manufacturing equipment to new, undeclared
sites, further complicating any future verification effort
and contributing to uncertainty about where Iran
manufactures centrifuges.
The IAEA cannot assure
the peaceful nature of Iran's nuclear program, because
Iran removed all of the Agency's previously installed
equipment for surveillance and monitoring activities.
The IAEA reiterates,
"The Agency has lost continuity of knowledge in relation
to the production and inventory of centrifuges, rotors
and bellows, heavy water and uranium ore concentrate
(UOC)." There is concern that Iran has
installed advanced centrifuges at an undeclared
site. The stocks of 60 percent of highly enriched
uranium (HEU) is growing.
"Such a scenario is
becoming more worrisome and viable, since a relatively
small number of advanced centrifuge cascades would suffice
for the rapid enrichment of the 60 percent HEU to
weapon-grade. This hybrid strategy involves Iran
diverting safeguarded HEU and enriching the material to
weapon-grade using three or four secretly manufactured and
deployed cascades of advanced centrifuges. With the
greater uncertainty about the quantity of advanced
centrifuges Iran is making, there is a greater chance of
Iran hiding away the requisite number of advanced
centrifuges to carry out this scenario."
"Combined with Iran's
refusal to resolve outstanding safeguards violations and
the program's unresolved nuclear weapons dimensions, the
IAEA has a significantly reduced ability to monitor Iran's
complex and growing nuclear program, at a time when Iran
is also under new scrutiny by U.S. and Israeli
intelligence for conducting nuclear weapons-related
activities. The IAEA's ability to detect diversion
of nuclear materials, equipment and other capabilities to
undeclared facilities remains greatly diminished."
The IAEA urgently
wants to determine if Iran is diverting to a secret
enrichment plant.
"Because Iran no
longer allows IAEA to monitor its manufacturing and
assembly of advanced centrifuges, it could also be
stockpiling advanced centrifuges without the IAEA's
knowledge, a shortcoming it regularly acknowledges."
'Iran's formal
breakout time remains at zero. It has enough 60
percent enriched uranium, or HEU (highly enriched
uranium), to be assured it could directly fashion almost
four nuclear explosives."
"The export of Shia
Islam, specifically the 'Twelver' branch, is one of the main
conduits through which Iran has consolidated its 'axis of
resistance' in the Middle East. It is worth noting
that the 'axis' transcends the bounds of Shia Islam; Iran's
allies include both the Alawite Assad regime and the Sunni
Muslim Brotherhood (of which Hamas is an offshoot) and it
often assumes stances with the whole Islamic world in mind,
particularly in its approach to Israel and the U.S.
Religion
as a Soft Power Tool: Iran’s Export of Twelver Shia Islam
to Syria | Royal United Services Institute
"Twelver Shiism is the
largest branch of Shiite Islam, with about 85 percent of
Shiite adhering to the belief in the 12th Imam." They
believe that the 12th Imam, Muhammad al-Mahdi was born in
Iraq in 869 A.D. and never died - he is presently in
hiding. He will return "as a messiah with Jesus to
bring peace to the world and establish Islam as the ruling
faith across the globe."
"The Mahdi is
expected to appear when the world is wracked in utter
chaos and war....The Twelve beliefs have raised concern in
conjunction with Iran's steeped interest in furiously
pressing forward with its nuclear program, combined with
threats against Israel and the West."
Some believe the
Ayatollah plus others in Iran would "go so far as to
hasten a nuclear showdown and cataclysmic strike - perhaps
an attack on Israel and inevitable retaliation - to hasten
the arrival of the 12th Imam.
The
12th Imam: The Mahdi and Iran Today
It looks to be far too
late to rein Iran in. They are racing full speed ahead
for nuclear weapons. Does anyone really doubt that
Iran already has nuclear weapons fashioned and ready to
go...somewhere in Iran's control?
Israel, of course, is
monitoring the Iranian nuclear program - probably better
than the U.S. or IAEA. The Israelis understand the
Twelver mindset - the U.S./West does not or doesn't
care. Israel must be allowed to deal with Iran as they
see fit -- as now, they are the only nation with Iran in
their sights.
Pray for the peace of
Jerusalem~
Maranatha~
Chance