The 2012 U.S.
presidential election presents a contrast
to the 2008 election in terms
of their perceptions by the Russian elite.
In 2008,
then-PresidentDmitry
Medvedevexpressed a desire to work
with a "modern" U.S. leader rather than one
"whose eyes are turned back to the past." He
was referring to Democratic presidential
candidate Barack Obama. But influential Russian
elites voiced their support for the Republican
candidate, John McCain, despite McCain calling
PresidentVladimir
Putina KGB spy who has no soul
and calling to expel Russia from the
Group of Eight leading industrial nations.
Even though McCain
was more critical of the Kremlin, some members
of Putin's entourage favored McCain because
they believed he was more predictable than Obama.
They insisted that Russia was doing well
economically, whereas the United States was
losing one position in the world after another.
Therefore, when confronted with the U.S.
threat, Russia might only get stronger
and consolidate its status as a great
sovereign power. The elite's main concern is
with rebuilding power and geopolitical
influence. If McCain were in the White House,
the thinking went, Putin would have
a convenient anti-Russian bogeyman whom
the Kremlin could exploit for domestic
political reasons, giving it another pretext
to ratchet up its anti-Americanism, increase
defense expenditures and crack down on the
opposition.
Yet it seems that
the Kremlin's support for U.S. hawks is
shifting. In March, Medvedev took issue with
U.S. presidential candidate Mitt Romney's
characterization of Russia as the "No. 1
geopolitical foe." He said the view "smelled
of Hollywood stereotypes" and suggested
that it was rooted in the Cold War.
But it wasn't only
Medvedev and his pro-Western supporters who
became critical of the Republican's views.
Although President Vladimir Putin recently thanked
Romney for his openness regarding
the "No.1 foe" comment, he also indicated that
it would be hard for the Kremlin to work
with Romney as president, especially
on sensitive security issues such as
the missile defense system. During Putin's
interview with RT state television, he also called
Obama an "honest man who really wants
to change much for the better." This
comment was widely viewed as Putin's most direct
endorsement of Obama in the presidential
race.
The change
in Russia's perception can be explained
by the sobering effects of the global
financial crisis and progress that Russia
and the United States have made since 2009.
The crisis ended Russia's era of 7 percent
average annual growth from 1999 to 2008.
Russia, which is overly dependent on energy
exports, was hit particularly hard by the 2008
crisis. Its gross domestic product fell about 8.5
percent in 2009, while China and India
continued to grow, albeit at a slower
pace.
It took Russia's
leadership some time to adjust its foreign
policy to the new global conditions. Obama's
decision to improve relations with
the country and establish strong ties with
Medvedev despite Russia's war with Georgia
in August 2008 was essential.
The diplomacy of pressing the "reset"
button with Russia proved important
for alleviating the Kremlin's fear
of NATO expansion and the region's
destabilization in response
to Washington's strategy of regime change
in several countries.
Since 2009,
the two sides have cooperated by signing
and then ratifying the new START treaty,
imposing tougher sanctions on Iran
and working to stabilize Afghanistan. Not
only did the Kremlin provide overflights
and overland transportation, but it also
recently approved NATO's use of the Ulyanovsk
airport as a transit point for soldiers
and cargo to and from Afghanistan.
Russia also renewed a strong interest
in developing economic relations with
the United States and completed
negotiations over its membership in the World
Trade Organization.
The progress
in U.S.-Russian relations since 2009 does not
mean that Russians are entirely satisfied with their
relations with the U.S. Russia remains critical
of the U.S. proposal to develop
the missile defense system jointly with
the Europeans without Russia's participation.
At the end of 2010, Moscow had
to swallow its pride by shelving
Medvedev's proposal to create
a pan-European security treaty after getting
an ice-cold reaction from the U.S.
and NATO. Furthermore, NATO remains supportive
of Georgia's eventual membership in the
alliance, a particularly sore point
in U.S.-Russian relations. Finally,
the Kremlin's stubborn support of Syria
in the United Nations Security Council remains
an irritant for Obama and even more
so for Romney.
Despite all
the Kremlin's frustrations, it remains hopeful
that Obama will be re-elected and that he will
help to move U.S.-Russian relations forward.
The stronger dialogue and engagement that
may result from an Obama presidency is
an opportunity to weaken nationalist
phobias in both Russia and the U.S. This
opportunity must be seized.