Keith C (10 Oct 2011)
"Mercer - for your consideration"

Hi Mercer

Always look forward to your posts.  I think we share similar beliefs.

I felt like I needed show the scriptures I used to form my opinions.  I realize that putting a lot of scripture in an email can seem a bit tedious at times.

Hopefully, you will find some comfort in my conclusion.



I think we agree that the rapture happens before the start of the 70th week.

The END of the 70th week concludes the “This generation…”  Mat 24:34  Verily I say unto you, This generation shall not pass, till all these things be fulfilled.

So if we know when the generation starts, and how long a generation is, then we know approximately when the rapture is. 

(Assuming that the 70th week is 7 years.)



In Matthew 24, Jesus is answering “the when” question.


He tells us when it begins:

Mat 24:5  For many shall come in my name, saying, I am Christ; and shall deceive many.

Mat 24:6  And ye shall hear of wars and rumours of wars: see that ye be not troubled: for all these things must come to pass, but the end is not yet.

Mat 24:7  For nation shall rise against nation, and kingdom against kingdom: and there shall be famines, and pestilences, and earthquakes, in divers places.

Mat 24:8  All these are the beginning of sorrows.


He tells us when it ends:

Mat 24:9  Then shall they deliver you up to be afflicted, and shall kill you: and ye shall be hated of all nations for my name's sake.

Mat 24:10  And then shall many be offended, and shall betray one another, and shall hate one another.

Mat 24:11  And many false prophets shall rise, and shall deceive many.

Mat 24:12  And because iniquity shall abound, the love of many shall wax cold.

Mat 24:13  But he that shall endure unto the end, the same shall be saved.

Mat 24:14  And this gospel of the kingdom shall be preached in all the world for a witness unto all nations; and then shall the end come.


And then, He gives an extra special warning specifically for the Jews:

Mat 24:15  When ye therefore shall see the abomination of desolation, spoken of by Daniel the prophet, stand in the holy place, (whoso readeth, let him understand:)

Mat 24:16  Then let them which be in Judaea flee into the mountains:

Mat 24:17  Let him which is on the housetop not come down to take any thing out of his house:

Mat 24:18  Neither let him which is in the field return back to take his clothes.

Mat 24:19  And woe unto them that are with child, and to them that give suck in those days!

Mat 24:20  But pray ye that your flight be not in the winter, neither on the sabbath day:

Mat 24:21  For then shall be great tribulation, such as was not since the beginning of the world to this time, no, nor ever shall be.


But it’s this next verse that I want to focus on.

Mat 24:22  And except those days should be shortened, there should no flesh be saved: but for the elect's sake those days shall be shortened.


A minor question arises -

Specifically which set of “days” is Jesus speaking of when He says that they will be shortened - the first half, or the second half? 


In the verses immediately preceding Matthew 24:22, He is speaking about the “abomination of desolation”, an event that happens in the middle of the tribulation.

He even tells us where to look – in Daniel:

Daniel 9:27 “And he shall confirm the covenant with many for one week: and in the midst of the week he shall cause the sacrifice and the oblation to cease,

and for the overspreading of abominations he shall make it desolate, even until the consummation, and that determined shall be poured upon the desolate.”




So Matthew 24:15 thru 24:21 is dealing specifically with the middle of, and the 2nd half of the tribulation.

Mat 24:22  And except those days should be shortened, there should no flesh be saved: but for the elect's sake those days shall be shortened.


The word rendered “shortened” here in the New Testament is the Greek word “koloboo”, and appears only 4 times – twice in Matthew 24:22, and twice in Mark 13:20.

Mar 13:20  And except that the Lord had shortened those days, no flesh should be saved: but for the elect's sake, whom he hath chosen, he hath shortened the days.


All verses that I’m aware of indicate that the 1st half of the 70th week is 1260 days long, but I am of the opinion that scripture teaches that the 2nd half is shortened.


How much shorter isn’t really clear.  There are those that see the 2nd half being 1040 days, based upon 2300 days in Daniel.  I’m not certain yet.  But for the sake of this argument, I’m going to use 2300 days.




5/14/1948 plus 70 years (anniv.) = 5/14/2018 


5/14/2018 minus 2520 days = 6/21/2011  (already past)

5/14/2018 minus 2300 days = 1/27/2012  (still future)


I’m of the opinion that the “70 year generation” timeframe is NOT yet completed – meaning that we are still in the “rapture window” until 1/27/2012.



Why didn’t I use 360 days to calculate the the 70 year generation?

Well, two reasons, neither are especially technical. 

One, from the first Pentecost until the start of the 70th week, it is the time of the Gentiles – and Gentiles typically use 365.24 days in a year.

And two:

5/14/1948 plus 70 years (360) = 5/11/2017.


5/11/2017 minus 2520 days = 6/18/2010  (already past)

5/11/2017 minus 2300 days = 1/24/2011  (already past)



Additionally, why did I use 70 years for a generation?

For a long time, I looked at a 40 year generation, especially counting from June 1967.

Moses and the 40 year wandering makes a really good argument.

Right up to the point that the date came and went.

Then I read something the other day that intrigued me.  It is somewhat a custom in Israel that when a man reaches 83, he has a 2nd Bar Mitzva.

The first one at 13, a lifetime until 70, and then a second one at 83.  Pretty cool, if true.




Between now and 1/27/2012, I think there are a couple promising dates.



If you are aware of Harold Camping, and his predictions, then you might like my logic here. 

Harold Camping makes a rapture predictions every few years.  I remember seeing billboards of his 10 years ago proclaiming a date for the end.

The little I know about him and his beliefs disturbs me, but that’s not what this is about. 

Most recently, he made the news for a May prediction, and when it failed, he revised it to October 21, 2011.

If ever there was a date that people think that the rapture WON’T happen on, it would be then.



Many people have been seeing 11’s, myself included.  I recognized it in myself a couple years after 9/11/2001.  Enough that I spoke about it with close friends.  A year or two after that, I started reading about others having similar experiences.  Might there be something to it?  Something other than a simple sensitivity caused by the traumatic attacks on 9/11/01?  I don’t know.  But that day, the singularly most Christian nation on earth (of all times) was given a black eye and a bloody lip by the devil worshiping “religion of peace”.  And we haven’t been the same since. 



A rapture on the day that celebrates Jesus’ birth would make the bigger meaning pretty hard to miss.



I can’t fathom the extent of Gods mercy.  If waiting until the very last nano second allows one more person to accept Jesus as their savior, sparing them from an eternity of torment, I’m good with that.  I can wait.  God knows what He’s doing.




Here is something that I found to be interesting – not necessarily valid, simply interesting.

Rev 9:15  And the four angels were loosed, which were prepared for an hour, and a day, and a month, and a year, for to slay the third part of men.


1 hour, 1 day, 1 month (30 days), 1 year (360 days) for a total of 391 days (and 1 hour).

These 4 angels prepare for 391 days and 1 hour.  That is a very VERY specific time frame.  They have a very specific starting point, down to the very hour.

I can’t help but think about New Years Eve.  All around the world, there is a countdown to the very second. 

It’s celebrated all around the world, all cultures, all beliefs, and there is no other day of the year has that countdown.


Interestingly enough, counting back 391 days from 1/27/2012  is 1/1/11, New Years Day.  An hour earlier – the countdown.


Might the preparation clock have started on 1/1/11?

Revelation 9:15 is the 6th trumpet - I personally believe that the judgments are in sequential order.  So then, the 2nd seal can’t be broken until after the 1st  seal. 

The 6th trumpet doesn’t happen until all 7 seals are opened, and the first 5 trumpets are blown.  THEN the 6th trumpet.

Now how long between each seal, and how long between each trumpet, I don’t know.  I’m not aware of any requirement that they be spaced days / weeks / months apart.  The 7 seals COULD happen in pretty quick succession in my opinion.

Two chapters later, Revelation 11:3 introduces the two witnesses.  We know that their ministry is 1260 days long, and they are killed at the half way point – meaning that they must start their ministry right at the beginning of the tribulation. (granted, it’s parenthetical).




If the year 2011 has been known for anything, it’s been known for natural disasters (not to mention political, financial, economic disasters, Arab spring, etc) starting almost immediately.

I gotta tell ya – something seems to have started on 1/1/11.





More Than 1,000 Dead Birds Fall From Sky in Arkansas-January 2

Dead fish cover 20-mile section of Arkansas River-January 2

Earthquake Near Japan Triggers Tsunami Warning-January 3

Powerful earthquake hits south-east Iran-January 3

Earthquake 7.0 magnitude hits northern Argentina-January 3

Hundreds of dead blackbirds found in Louisiana-January 3

10,000s of Birds found dead in Manitoba-January 3

Thousands of Birds fall from the sky in South America-January 3

Major Flood in Rockhampton, Australia-January 3

Dead Birds Found In Kentucky-January 4

100 tons of dead fish wash up on Brazil's shores-January 4

Hundreds of dead birds found in East Texas-January 5

Dead birds in Sweden, millions of dead fish in Maryland, Brazil and New Zealand-January 5

Shift of Earth's magnetic north pole affects Tampa airport-January 5

40,000 crabs found dead on England beaches-January 6

Heavy floods leave at least 35 dead in Brazil-January 6

Huge Waves Destroy Homes in E. Indonesia-January 12

Thousands of marine animals found dead  in MATO GROSSO DO SUL/AMAZON Region-February 4

Magnitude 6.3 earthquake- SOUTH ISLAND OF NEW ZEALAND-February 21

Thousands of dead fish have washed up at Sebastian Inlet State Park Florida-February

Millions of small fish including anchovies, sardines and mackerel were found dead at King Harbour area at Redondo Beach, California-March

Magnitude 8.9 earthquake and tsunami devastating Japan-March 11

Magnitude 6.5 earthquake- Vanuatu- March 17

Magnitude 7.0 earthquake strikes northeastern Burma-March 23

Magnitude 6.8 earthquake hits Myanmar, Thailand-March 23

Magnitude 6.4 earthquake off the coast of Japan-March 25

Thousands of dead fish wash up in Florida-March 25

Hundreds of dead fish found in Midland, Texas-March 26

Hundreds of dead fish and frogs in Marquette Lagoon-April 1

Magnitude 5.4 earthquake in South Sandwich Islands Region-April 1

Magnitude 6.4 earthquake Fiji-April 3

Magnitude 6.7 earthquake in South of Java, Indonesia-April 3

Magnitude 6.5 earthquake hits Vera Cruz, Mexico-April 7

Dead birds fall into Kansas yard-April 8

Magnitude 7.4 earthquake hits shore of Japan-April 7

Dead fish found in Cedar Creek, Texas-April 10

Magnitude 6.5 and 6.2 earthquakes hit eastern Japan-April 11

Dead fish float up in 36 lakes in the state of Connecticut-April 

Deadly Tornadoes hit N. Carolina and Virginia, at least 47 dead-April 16

Thousands of dead fish are hauled away in Lakeside, NY-April 27

A massive thunderstorm front spawned 137 tornadoes, killed at least 180 people, and mangled sections of Tuscaloosa, Birmingham, and Huntsville, Alabama-April

Dead fish wash up in San Tan Heights pond-May

Deadly Tornado hits Albany, New Zealand, at least 1 death-May 3

Major Mississippi flooding, destroys many homes-May

Dead fish found in Valsad district of south Gujarat-May 3,4

6.5 Magnitude Earthquake hits Papua New Guinea, Tsunami warning-May 15

Iceland's Grimsvotn Volcano erupts, followed by small earthquakes-May 21

Deadly Tornadoes hit Minneapolis and Missouri-May 22

Deadly Tornadoes hits Oklahoma City-May 24

Chedeng exits Philippines, leaves 3 dead-May 28

800 tons of dead fish float ashore in Philippine fish farms-May 29

At least 10,000 metric tons of fish dead in Bolinao and Anda waters in Pangasinan-May 31

Deadly tornado hits Springfield, Massachusetts-June 1

Dead fish found in Ogeechee River-June 3

Dead fish wash up in Bulacan and Ilocos Sur-June 4

Volcano erupts in Chile for the first time in 50 years-June 6

Massive wildfires in Arizona, claimed more than 30 homes-June 8

6.0, 5.5 and 4.4 Magnitude Earthquakes hit Christchurch, NZ-June 11,12

Hundreds of dead fish float up in Delco Lake,Creek-June 15

Buildings, trees and mountains miraculously appear in a China lake (no explanation)-June 17

40 Tornadoes rip through Nebraska, Kansas-June 21

7.2 Magnitude Earthquake hits Fox Islands, Aleutian Islands, Alaska-June 24

Massive dust storm hits Phoenix-July 5 

7.8 Magnitude Earthquake hits New Zealand-July 7

7.3 Magnitude Earthquake hits northeastern Japan-July 9

6.2 Magnitude Earthquake hits Philippines-July 11

Hundreds of fish found dead in lake in Kuantan-August 9

A ton of dead fish found in River Segura-August 9

Large number of fish found dead in Central China River-August 12

5.3 earthquake hits Colorado-August 22

5.9 earthquake hits Virginia, jolts NY and Carolinas-August 23

Hurricane Irene hits SC,NC,VA-August 26,27

Deadly Typhoon hits Taiwan and China-August 29

6.8 Magnitude Earthquake hits Alaska-September 2

6.7 Magnitude Earthquake hits Argentina-September 2

7.0 Magnitude Earthquake hits Vanuatu-September 3

6.6 Magnitude Earthquake hits Northern Sumatra, Indonesia-September 5

6.4 Magnitude Earthquake hits Vancouver-September 9

Floods in Pennsylvania-September 10

Texas Fire destroys 1,554 homes, 17 people missing-September 11

Magnitude 6.8 Earthquake hits Northeastern India-September 18

Tornado hits Siloam Springs, AR-September 18

Deadly Typhoon hits Philippines-September 27

Magnitude 5.0 Earthquake hits Aisen, Chile-October 7







WASHINGTON — Nature is pummeling the United States this year with extremes.

Unprecedented triple-digit heat and devastating drought. Deadly tornadoes leveling towns. Massive rivers overflowing. A billion-dollar blizzard. And now, unusual hurricane-caused flooding in Vermont.

If what's falling from the sky isn't enough, the ground shook in places that normally seem stable: Colorado and the entire East Coast. On Friday, a strong quake triggered brief tsunami warnings in Alaska. Arizona and New Mexico have broken records for wildfires.

Total weather losses top $35 billion, and that's not counting Hurricane Irene, according to the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration. There have been more than 700 U.S. disaster and weather deaths, most from the tornado outbreaks this spring.

Last year, the world seemed to go wild with natural disasters in the deadliest year in a generation. But 2010 was bad globally, and the United States mostly was spared.

This year, while there have been devastating events elsewhere, such as the earthquake and tsunami in Japan, Australia's flooding and a drought in Africa, it's our turn to get smacked. Repeatedly.

"I'm hoping for a break. I'm tired of working this hard. This is ridiculous," said Jeff Masters, a meteorologist who runs Weather Underground, a meteorology service that tracks strange and extreme weather. "I'm not used to seeing all these extremes all at once in one year."

The U.S. has had a record 10 weather catastrophes costing more than a billion dollars: five separate tornado outbreaks, two different major river floods in the Upper Midwest and the Mississippi River, drought in the Southwest and a blizzard that crippled the Midwest and Northeast, and Irene.

What's happening, say experts, is mostly random chance or bad luck. But there is something more to it, many of them say. Man-made global warming is increasing the odds of getting a bad roll of the dice.

Sometimes the luck seemed downright freakish.

The East Coast got a double-whammy in one week with a magnitude 5.8 earthquake followed by a drenching from Irene. If one place felt more besieged than others, it was tiny Mineral, Va., the epicenter of the quake, where Louisa County Fire Lt. Floyd Richard stared at the darkening sky before Irene and said, "What did WE do to Mother Nature to come through here like this."

There are still four months to go, including September, the busiest month of the hurricane season. The Gulf Coast expected a soaking this weekend from Tropical Storm Lee and forecasters were watching Hurricane Katia slogging west in the Atlantic.

The insurance company Munich Re calculated that in the first six months of the year there have been 98 natural disasters in the United States, about double the average of the 1990s.

Even before Irene, the Federal Emergency Management Agency was on pace to obliterate the record for declared disasters issued by state, reflecting both the geographic breadth and frequency of America's problem-plagued year.

"If you weren't in a drought, you were drowning is what it came down to," Masters said.

Add to that, oppressive and unrelenting heat. Tens of thousands of daily weather records have been broken or tied and nearly 1,000 all-time records set, with most of them heat or rain related:

_ Oklahoma set a record for hottest month ever in any state with July.

_ Washington D.C. set all-time heat records at the National Arboretum on July 23 with 105 and then broke it a week later with 106.

_ Houston had a record string of 24 days in August with the thermometer over 100 degrees.

_ Newark, N.J., set a record with 108 degrees, topping the old mark by 3 degrees.

Tornadoes this year hit medium-sized cities such as Joplin, Mo., and Tuscaloosa, Ala. The outbreaks affected 21 states, including unusual deadly twisters in Minnesota, Wisconsin and Massachusetts.

"I think this year has really been extraordinary in terms of natural catastrophes," said Andreas Schrast, head of catastrophic perils for Swiss Re, another big insurer.

One of the most noticeable and troubling weather extremes was the record-high nighttime temperatures, said Tom Karl, director of NOAA's National Climatic Data Center. That shows that the country wasn't cooling off at all at night, which both the human body and crops need.

"These events are abnormal," Karl said. "But it's part of an ongoing trend we've seen since 1980."

Individual weather disasters so far can't be directly attributed to global warming, but it is a factor in the magnitude and the string of many of the extremes, Karl and other climate scientists say.

While the hurricanes and tornado outbreaks don't seem to have any clear climate change connection, the heat wave and drought do, said NASA climate scientist Gavin Schmidt.

This year, there's been a Pacific Ocean climate phenomenon that changes weather patterns worldwide known as La Nina, the flip side to El Nino. La Ninas normally trigger certain extremes such as flooding in Australia and drought in Texas. But global warming has taken those events and amplified them from bad to record levels, said climate scientist Jerry Meehl at the National Center for Atmospheric Research.

Judith Curry of Georgia Tech disagreed, saying that while humans are changing the climate, these extremes have happened before, pointing to the 1950s.

"Sometimes it seems as if we have weather amnesia," she said.

Another factor is that people are building bigger homes and living in more vulnerable places such as coastal regions, said Swiss Re's Schrast. Worldwide insured losses from disasters in the first three months this year are more than any entire year on record except for 2005, when Hurricane Katrina struck, Schrast said.

Unlike last year, when many of the disasters were in poor countries such as Haiti and Pakistan, this year's catastrophes have struck richer areas, including Australia, Japan and the United States.

The problem is so big that insurers, emergency managers, public officials and academics from around the world are gathering Wednesday in Washington for a special three-day National Academy of Sciences summit to figure out how to better understand and manage extreme events.

The idea is that these events keep happening, and with global warming they should occur more often, so society has to learn to adapt, said former astronaut Kathryn Sullivan, NOAA's deputy chief.

Sullivan, a scientist, said launching into space gave her a unique perspective on Earth's "extraordinary scale and power and both extraordinary elegance and finesse."

"We are part of it. We do affect it," Sullivan said. "But it surely affects us on a daily basis – sometimes with very powerful punches."





Mercer – the point is this:


1Th 4:14  For if we believe that Jesus died and rose again, even so them also which sleep in Jesus will God bring with him.

1Th 4:15  For this we say unto you by the word of the Lord, that we which are alive and remain unto the coming of the Lord shall not prevent them which are asleep.

1Th 4:16  For the Lord himself shall descend from heaven with a shout, with the voice of the archangel, and with the trump of God: and the dead in Christ shall rise first:

1Th 4:17  Then we which are alive and remain shall be caught up together with them in the clouds, to meet the Lord in the air: and so shall we ever be with the Lord.

1Th 4:18  Wherefore comfort one another with these words.


5/14/2018 minus 2300 days = 1/27/2012  (still future)


Best regards,