Chance (4 May 2025)
"Pakistan - India Follow Up - The Escalation Continues"


 
Hello John and Doves,
 
Looks like the Pakistan - India situation isn't dying back down.  Talk of military strikes 'in hours'.
 
Here's a collection of recent articles on this situation:
 
Hal Turner reported that "Pakistan has ordered citizens living on the border with India to have 2 months supply of food and water, due to the possibility of war with India."
 
"For two weeks now, Pakistan and India have been openly moving troops, tanks, artillery and attack aircraft into positions for war."
 
The Pakistani Foreign Minister held a meeting on the Indus Water treaty that India unilaterally froze.  He said that the water is legally shared and guaranteed.
 
Pakistan's Air Force "launched two major exercises - deploying most of its combat fleet, drones, air defenses and EW assets...Pakistan issued NOTAM closing air routes between Lahore and Islamabad from April 28 - 30 for major air warfare exercises.
Clash Report on X: "Pakistan Air Force launched two major exercises — “Fiza-e-Badr” (Northern Command) and “Lalkar-e-Momin” (Central Command) — deploying most of its combat fleet, drones, air defenses, and EW assets. All three PAF commands will be active by tonight." / X
 
"Following Pakistan's airspace restriction for Indian airlines, several European carriers, including Lufthansa, Air France, British Airways and SWISS, are now avoiding Pakistani airspace."
 
"Some airways in northern Pakistan are NOTAM'd unavailable through May, leading to adjusted routings with Pakistan as well.  On Friday, it said, Lufthansa, ITA Airways and LOT joining the list of airlines routing around Pakistan (May 2.)."
 
"The moment India-Pakistan conflict escalates, all flights will steer clear of the conflict zones.  Airlines have done their last-minute rerouting as many planes will be enroute when and if the conflict escalates," said an official of a leading western airline."
 
In this article dated May 2, 2025:
 
Pakistan has closed "designated parts of the airspace in these regions (Karachi and Lahore) will remain closed from 4:00AM to 8:00AM throughout the month....The airspace restrictions and heightened aerial vigilance reflect Pakistan's preparedness and focus on national security in a tense regional environment."
Pakistan temporarily closes portions of Karachi, Lahore airspace
 
This article came out on May 1, 2025:
 
India has closed areas of their airspace with NOTAMs - that "has been issued from 30 April to 23 May.  During this time, no Pakistan registered aircraft or military aircraft can enter Indian airspace." 
 
"All Pakistanis are being sent back to Pakistan one by one.  India has completely closed its doors and routes for Pakistanis.  A NO ENTRY board has been put up for Pakistanis on the Indian border."

"Meanwhile, a big news has also come from Pakistan.  Pakistan's Deputy Prime Minister has again said that war is confirmed in 36 hours."  Pakistan believes that India is going to attack Pakistan in 36 hours.
 
"With the passage of time, the chances of conflict are increasing, not decreasing.
India closed airspace for Pakistani aircraft, issued 'NOTAM' till May 23
 
"India has hinted at the possibility of an imminent but limited military strike.  Pakistan says it would respond militarily."
 
"India has a 'no first use' policy.  That means it will only retaliate with nuclear weapons if there is a nuclear attack on Indian forces or Indian territories.  Pakistan had a different policy, full spectrum deterrence, aimed at using tactical nuclear weapons to counter nuclear threats and conventional military attacks from its bigger, stronger, and richer regional rival.  Pakistan has not ruled out using nuclear weapons first it an existential threat.  But Pakistan can ill afford to initiate nuclear war with India because of its neighbor's superior firepower.  It has lost three conventional wars in the past.  Instead, Pakistan uses its nuclear arsenal to deter India from invasion or massive attack."
 
"Neither country knows what nuclear weapons the other has or how many.  Thinktanks suggest Pakistan has 170 warheads while India has 172."  Pakistan could have as many as 200.  These two countries do have a pact that "bars them from attacking each other's nuclear facilities."
 
:'..there is huge domestic pressure on India to respond this time because most of the victims last week were Indian."
Pakistan and India hint at imminent military action over Kashmir. A look at the nuclear rivals | AP News
 
The Pakistan Minister Hanif Abbasi "openly threatened India with nuclear retaliation, warning that Pakistan's arsenal - including Ghori, Shaheen and Ghaznavi missiles along with 130 nuclear warheads - has been kept "only for India."  If India halts the Pakistani water supply "by suspending the Indus Waters Treaty, it should prepare for a full-scale war."
130 nukes aimed at you: Pak minister's open threat to India as tensions flare
 
This article came out on May 1, 2025:
 
India does not have the infrastructure to stop the flow of the Indus River to Pakistan...Plans to build the infrastructure system of dams, reservoirs, and canals that would be needed to withhold or divert significant Indus flows, as some Indian authorities have announced, would take years to realize."  Any dams could only hold back water for a short period of time."
 
"Delhi's decision to suspend the Indus Water Treaty could become dangerously counterproductive...ratcheting up the water pressure could equally risk further destabilizing an already volatile neighbor."
 
"And India lies downstream from an increasingly assertive China...As geopolitical competition across the region deepens, more than a few Indian observers fear that Delhi's use of water against Islamabad risks licensing Beijing to adopt the same strategy against India.  Ultimately, India's use of the water weapon to cut Pakistan's Indus lifeline could prove to be a double-edge sword."
Can India Cut Off Pakistan’s Indus River Lifeline?
 
In other words, India isn't just facing Pakistan in this 'dust up'.  China could easily get involved.  And things could just snowball from there....
 
The situation is still very volatile.  India is under great public pressure to retaliate against Pakistan.  And Pakistan is geared up for a hit.  Possibly followed by retaliation from their side for the hit.  This could escalate out of control.
 
Just another hot spot to watch as "A fourth round of nuclear negotiations between the United States and Iran has been postponed amid rising tensions and the threat of military action from President Trump, casting doubt on the future of diplomatic efforts to avoid war.  Talks originally scheduled to take place in Rome on Saturday are now on hold, with no new date confirmed."
 
Maybe Iran is waiting to see if the Pakistan-India war will break out..leaving an open door to all kinds of 'opportunities.'
 
Pray for the peace of Jerusalem!
 
Maranatha!
 
Chance