Chance (22 June 2025)
"Gino: "it can't happen here?" , Iran's IBMS Can Reach Our East Coast, America's Poor Anti-Missile Defense System Letter Part 2"


 
Hello John and Doves,
 
In this letter I wrote about our bunker busting bombs (BBB) and tactical nukes.

Fordow appears to be the next target.
 
And I wrote about Iran's ICBMs and the U.S. anti-missile defense system.
 
Is President Trump holding back on his plan with Israel on attacking Iran because we really don't have a way of taking out their nuclear facilities that are deep underground?
 
If they aren't completely removed, they will just rebuild and we'll be back to where we are now somewhere in the future. "Rinse, and repeat."
 
IF we can't 'get' to them, what's the point?
 
BBBs (bunker buster bombs) are designed to penetrate 200 feet of mountain rock or 60 feet of concrete before exploding.  This is not deep enough for the underground Iranian missile cities.
 
Even tactical nukes would be challenged to get to that depth and destroy what's there.
 
At the end, I included a short video on a buster bunker bomb attack on an Iranian nuclear facility and thoughts on that.
 
President Trump has a major dilemma because the military can't guarantee BBBs will reach or even destroy the nuclear facilities of Iran.
 
President Trump Hesitant On Iran Strike:
 
In this April 19, 2025 article:
 
"Donald Trump has conveyed to defence officials that any military strike on Iran's deeply buried uranium enrichment facility at Furdow would only make sense if the so-called "bunker buster" bomb - the GBU-57 Massive Ordinance Penetrator (MOP) - could be guaranteed to destroy the target."
 
"Defence officials briefed on the matter have expressed doubts that even multiple conventional GBU-57 bombs could fully penetrate and destroy Iran's Fordow, which Israeli intelligence estimates to be buried as deep as 300 feet (approximately 90-meters) beneath a mountain."
 
As for possibly using a tactical nuclear weapon - "to destroy Fordow would involve first "softening" the ground with conventional bombs before deploying a tactical nuclear weapon from a B-2 stealth bomber to obliterate the entire site..."
 
One B-2 can carry two GBU-57 (30,000 pound bomb) at a range of 6,000 miles without refueling.  Each bomb contains 6,000 pounds of high explosives "designed to blast through layers of rock and concrete".  These bombs are guided to their target via GPS-targeting systems and have a delayed action-fuse - detonating down in the ground at 200 feet.
 
"Fordow is a fortified uranium enrichment facility situated near the city of Qom in central Iran.  Built inside a mountain, it covers roughly 54,000 square feet and houses approximately 3,000 centrifuges used for uranium enrichment."  It's estimated to be 300 feet before the surface.  The IAEA has reported that Fordow "remains operational and undamaged by recent Israel attacks, making it a critical component of Iran's program and a key target for any potential military intervention aimed at curbing Tehran's nuclear ambitions."
 
Iran Has ICBMS:
 
In this article, Nov. 9, 2024, "Analysts believe the missile launched by Iran yesterday is likely a "super heavy' type, carrying a substantial warhead similar to the Khorrahmsharhr-4 (I wrote about the 'mystery' third generation Khorramsharhr in Part 1), Iran's most modern and ballistic missile developed to date.  Iran has reportedly conducted a test launch of an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) at its missile testing and space center in Shahroud, northern Iran."
 
"Analysts suggest this ICBM test serves as a warning to both Israel and the United States."
 
As for Iran's Khorramshahr-4 missile "Iranian officials have hinted that the actual range may be between 4,000km and 5,000km, despite public claims of a 2,000km limit."
 
In this article, June 17, 2025, Ted Cruz reported to Congress:
 
"Iran has reportedly conducted a test launch of an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) at its missile testing and space center in Shahroud in norther Iran."
 
"The ayatollah is a religious nutcase.  He is a theocratic mass murderer.  And when he chants 'Death to America' and "Death to Israel' he does so in front of mobs of people.  He also refers to Israel as the little Satan and America is the great Satan." Cruz said.  "There is a reason the Ayatollah is developing ICBMs  ICBMS are intercontinental ballistic missiles.  You don't need an ICBM to bomb Israel.  They're bombing Israel with ballistic missiles.  You need an ICBM to get to America."
 
Iran has probably tested nukes too.  For their new ICBMs.  Too many questionable 'earthquakes' in Iran the last few years and recently.  And Pakistan/North Korea have been 'helping' them.
 
"..some analysts have raised the possibility that the seismic activity could be linked to underground nuclear testing by Iran - a claim that remains unverified."
 
America's Anti-Missile Defense:
 
"And from this article reviewed January 2025, "Current U.S. Missile Defense Programs at a Glance" Arms Control Association, according to the Defense Department's independent testing office, existing U.S. missile defenses have "demonstrated capability" to defend the U.S. homeland against a small number of intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) threats that employ "simple countermeasure"."
 
"Leaders of the U.S. missile defense enterprise have increasingly voiced concerns that the current U.S. approach to national and regional missile defense is unsustainable and that existing defenses must be augmented with emerging capabilities to reduce the cost of missile defense and keep pace with advancing adversary missile threats."

And in this February 2022 article in Breaking Defense "No US missile defense system proven capable against 'realistic' ICBM threats:  Study."  The study concludes that "all these systems' whether based on land, at sea in the air or in space, "would face very difficult technical challenges" and "be unable to defend the entire continental United States."
 
 
The U.S. military has 7 (an 8th is coming 2025) THADD batteries.  And we lend them to various countries.  They are mobile.  
 
According to this report from a few years ago, three are based in Fort Bliss, TX.  Two are at Ft. Cavazos, TX.  One is in South Korea and one is in Guam.  We sent one to Israel recently.  The article states they can only engage targets at 150 to 200km during the missiles terminal stage of flight.  That's not much of a range - and that certainly can't cover the East Coast.  (The Patriot missiles have a range of 99 miles.  These ranges for THAAD and Patriot anti-missile missiles are the 'official' ranges - the 'unofficial/secret' ranges may be way more.)
 
"The Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) System"  April, 25, 2024:
IF12645.1.pdf
 
 
President Trump's Golden Dome probably won't even come about before his term expires.  Presently, the U.S. doesn't have the anti-missile coverage necessary.
 
Iran has recently threatened to attack European capitols.  And if we aren't expecting any ICBMs coming from Iran - because "they don't have ICBMs or nuclear warheads" we won't be ready with much of an anti-missile defense along our East Coast.  (And I haven't mentioned any cargo ships/? that could carry a launcher and nuke.)
 
Bunker Buster Bomb Myth:
 
Professor Theodore Postol is a Professor of Science, Technology and National Security Policy at MIT.
 
This video is about the GBU-57 (Massive Ordinance Penetrator) "designed to penetrate up to 200 feet into reinforced concrete or rock before detonation."
 
(my notes)
 
Most of the 30,000 pounds of this bomb is steel - they need a lot of weight to penetrate and protect the 6,000 pounds of explosives inside the bomb.
 
What are these bombs really capable of?
 
We really don't know exactly where the tunnels/cities underground are.  Craters are created with a diameter of 20 - 30 meters.  If a tunnel is below it at 20 meters, it could punch through to that.  But the tunnels have to be within 10 or 20 meters of location of the explosion.  What is the tunnel is offset by 30 meters?  We have no idea where the tunnels are.  The Iranians have designed their tunnel anticipating bombing.
 
The underground structures are under hills (and mountains).  Lindsey Graham and others need to understand that we are dealing with a highly sophisticated country (Iran) and highly sophisticated and well trained scientists.  Used for Iran's defense. 
 
If you are attacking a concrete bunker you want the missile to hit perpendicular.  But if it hits a surface with an angle, it will twist/deflect.  One would intentionally build concrete covers with such angled sections.  Who is to say what's under the ground?
 
Prof Postol read that Natanz (Iran nuclear facility) has 250 feet of concrete above it.  If that's the case, "I can tell you they won't be able to destroy it."  'It it's that thick, and they designed the concrete to deflect bombs' - BBBs won't destroy it.
 
(end notes)
run time 12:32
 
All of this points to President Trump's hesitation on striking Iran.  Can we even make a difference?  And if we do hit them with BBBs, Iran said they would retaliate against American targets.  If we can't destroy their nuclear facilities, but get our bases attacked, sleeper cells activated, etc.- what good did we actually do for Israel, for the us, for the world??
 
Pray for the peace of Jerusalem!
 
Maranatha!
 
Chance