Hello John and Doves,
Much happened this last week in
the Ukraine-Russia war theatre. And none of it is
good news. Big moves by Russia. This
is some of the latest news I came across, by Saturday,
July 22, 2023.
From looking through the recent
news analysis of the Ukrainian counteroffensive -
where progress is measured 'by yards/meters and not
km/milies"....it's pretty dismal, pretty sobering
news. But not a surprise to most. And support
of this war is faltering. There is not an endless
supply of money and weapons. And the U.S. is
emptying it's pockets for Ukraine!
A group of military analysts
wrote up their take on the Ukraine-Russia war - updated
July 20, 2023. Sixteen points are listed in their
analysis.
The Ukrainian military
much touted counteroffensive is making little progress
against the Russian forces. And it was
noted that "less able bodied and older men" are being
called up for service.
One striking part of the 16
point analysis is #15: "The narrative that Ukrainian
progress thus far is slow just because of a lack of
weapons deliveries and support is monocausal and is not
shared by those we spoke to actually fighting and
exercising command on the frontline." That is very
telling. Also, operations 'to scale' aren't being
done - there are just too many hurdles to get over for
this to happen. The Russians are putting up a strong
front.
A major point is Ukraine
is "facing off against one of the world's most powerful
militaries." And as for the 'operations
not being to a scale' to make a difference - it was noted
that "no Western type of military can really do
this sort of combined arms operations at scale, with the
exception of the United States. But even the
United States Armed Forces would have a very difficult
time breaking through these defensive laryers because no
Western miltiary in the world currently has an
experience in breaching the types of defenses in depth
that the Russians put up, in the south and east of
Ukraine." They also point out that due to
Russian technology the HIMARS success is "definitely
over". If other long-range precision guided
munitions are provided to Ukraine - the Russians will find
a countermeasure to it.
But at what cost and with what
weapons will Ukraine 'win'? With attrition taking a
toll on Ukrainians and the rapid depletion we've seen of
munitions.... This Wall Street Journal article says
"Only weapons can end the Ukraine War - Europe should
provide humanitarian aid so the U.S. can provide
tanks, F-16s and artillery shells."
Only
Weapons Can End the Ukraine War - WSJ
Yikes! This would
absolutely make this a direct war between the U.S. and
Russia. It's pretty close to that already. And
Biden said only F-16s capable of carrying tactical nuclear
weapons will be allowed to go to Ukraine and Russia said
if this happens - since they won't know if an F-16 is
carrying a nuke or not - they'll consider all F-16s as
crossing their nuclear red line.
At the 2022 Carnegie Nuclear
Policy Conference the end of 2022, a panel of experts met
with MIchael Mazaar (RAND Corporation senior political
scientist). Mazaar said "It seems like one
of the central dilemmas here is that WE NEED PUTIN TO
LOSE." The panel believed at the time
that by summer 2023, "Russia will have been pushed out of
the entirety of the territory of Ukraine, including
Crimea." They downplayed the use of Russian nuclear
weapons being used on Ukraine...unless Putin felt 'pushed'
to use them. And they admit that the West is
fighting a proxy war in Ukraine.
Can
Russia’s War in Ukraine End Without Nuclear Weapons? -
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
We can see that that has not
happened. The Russians have dug in. Ukraine is
running out of 'soldiers' and munitions - and NATO can't
keep up! Sure seems like something is going to have
to give.
Neither side will accept
defeat. The West has made it abundantly clear from
the get go there will be NO peace treaty with Russia.
Our military analysts believed
this Ukraine-Russia war would be short lived - that
Ukraine would quickly be victorious - how wrong they were!
Various reports are circulating
- looks like cluster munitions were used on a Russian
village - inside Russia! Cluster munitions
have also been used on Russian positions. Polish
and Lithuanian soldiers will be going to Ukraine to
fight since the Ukrainian military has been
decimated. Russia believes that part of Ukraine
will be occupied by Ukraine, Poland and Lithuania.
Reports are
out stating that Poland is planning to take parts of
Western Ukraine and Western Belarus in a land
grab. Parts of Ukraine use to be part of
Poland. "President
Vladimir Putin on Friday (July 21, 2023) accused NATO
member Poland of having territorial ambitions in the
former Soviet Union, and said any aggression
against Russia's neighbor and close ally Belarus would
be considered an attack on Russia." Russia will
respond 'with all the means at our disposal.'
Putin
tells Poland any aggression against Belarus is attack
on Russia | Reuters
July 21, 2023,
"Russian President Vladimir Putin claimed Friday that
Poland wants to seize Western Ukraine....In a video
address to his national security council, the Russian
leader claimed the increased military cooperation
between Ukraine, Poland and Lithuania since the Russian
invasion could provide an opportunity for Warsaw to
settle historical disputes and stake its own claim to
Ukrainian territory. Under the guise of a friendly
"military union" and citing the threat posed by Russia,
Poland could send troops to Western Ukraine and "if
we're being blunt", remain there for good, Putin
argued..."The possibility is obvious, Putin said.
"If Polish troops enter, for example, Lviv or other
Ukrainian territories, they will stay there and they
will stay there forever." Putin went on to accuse
Poland of "also desiring parts of Belarus...The would
trigger war, he said. "We'll respond to that by
every means," Putin said.
Putin
is again warning that Ukraine could be invaded and
occupied by Poland
On July 19, 2023, "Russia's
Defence Ministry said on Wednesday that it would deem
all ships travelling to Ukrainian ports to be potential
carriers of military cargo" and their flag
countries to be parties to the conflict on the Ukrainian
side. This move follows Russia's decision
this week to pull out of the U.N.-brockered Black Sea
grain export deal which had guaranteed the safety of
Ukrainian exports for the past year."
"In connection with the
termination of the Black Sea Initiative and the end of the
maritime humanitarian corridor, from 00.00 Moscow time on
July 20, 2023 all ships proceeding to Ukrainian ports in
Black Sea waters will be considered as potential carriers
of military cargo", the ministry said in a statement on
the Telegram messaging app." Russia also
declared SE and NW parts of the Black Sea's
international waters to be "temporarily unsafe for
navigation".
Russia
to deem Ukraine-bound ships 'potential carriers of
military cargo' from Wednesday eve | Reuters
In Summary:
So we've got Wagner group
preparing with the Belarus military for an invasion from
Poland. Rumors Wagner has tactical nukes. And
it's believed Russian tactical nukes have been placed in
Belarus by Putin. Cluster munitions are being used
on Russian troops and possibly a Russian village.
Russia has announced all ships going to Ukraine ports
as supplying war material to Ukraine along with
their flag countries as pro-Ukraine in this war.
Russia has ceased guaranteeing the safe passage of Ukraine
grain exports. Russian missiles have destroyed, so
far, some 120 tons of grain at grain storage
facilities. Russia believes Poland/Lithuania are
going to move on Ukraine and Poland on
Belarus.
Wow. This last week has
really seen some major movement going on concerning the
Ukraine-Russia war. If Poland/Lithuania move into
Ukraine or attack Belarus, Putin sees this as a red
line. And it's believed that Putin has moved
tactical nukes into Belarus.
There are reports that
Putin has drafted a 'retaliation order' that will 'go
into effect soon'. Stating '..the worst is yet to
come." We'll see what comes of this...
And
as of last week: Much of Ukraine's grain isn't
being exported now as Russia has launched strikes on
ports of Odessa and on July 20, 2023 India banned
exports of non-basmati rice - that's 25 to 30% of the
global rice taken out of the world market. "India
is the world's leading rice exported, accounting for
more than 40% of the global rice trade." (Rice
prices will increase due to this.)
India's
rice export ban could send decade-high prices spiking
even further
Ukraine has been Europe's
breadbasket" - "providing about 10 percent of the global
share of wheat exports and almost half of the world's
sunflower oil. Almost 90% of Ukraine's grain exports
left from Black Sea ports...China was the biggest
purchaser, buying about 25 percent of Ukrainian grain
shipped out."
Last week was a big mile marker
in this war...so much happened. "Is seems like the
gloves are off" and Russia is on the move. Countries
are squaring off. Bombing grain silos is pretty
extreme. Checking all Black Sea ships for military
supplies is pretty extreme. And NATO allies are
preparing.... This is a very unpredictable situation
that's turned from bad to worse just recently.
Pray for the peace of Jerusalem!
Maranatha!
Chance