Chance (31 Jan 2026)
"The Chagos Islands - Parliament to Vote On"


 
Hello John and Doves,
 
The UK has a deal going to hand over the Chagos Islands to the island country of Mauritius.  Disputes over ownership are decades long.  Mauritius is some 1,250 miles from the Chagos Islands (a collection of some 60 islands) - how is this not just trading the 'ownership of the colonization'?  
 
One of those islands, Diego Garcia, has the joint UK/US naval and bomber base - a very strategic military base for operations in the Middle East, Africa and Asia. 
 
Argentina is now considering going after the Falkland Islands in the International Court of Justice - since PM Starmer agreed to the court's ruling on the Chagos Islands.  Argentina wants ‘full sovereignty’ of Falklands after return of Chagos Islands | The Independent
 
President Trump now has some deal going on with NATO and Greenland - he's dropped the threat of tariffs and it looks like NATO and the EU consider Greenland very important for the security of Europe...and want the US to step up for that defense.  Which President Trump is very happy to do.
 
Will something similar happen with the Chagos Islands and Diego Garcia? 

The UK Deal With Mauritius:
 
The UK and Mauritius have been working on a deal for quite some time.  It will cost the UK about $4.6 billion.
 
The Independent is reporting this will cost the UK "up to 30 billion pounds" - that's about $40.5 billion.  PM Starmer is "accused of 'lying to the public'.

Sir Keir Starmer’s Chagos deal to cost UK up to £30bn
 
The Chagos Islands are the UK's last African colony.  France ceded the islands to the British in 1814 as "part of the treaty of Paris after the defeat of Napoleon".
 
Diego Garcia is to be leased back to the UK for 99 years..  And the Mauritans cannot resettle the island, even though they will control it.  The total lease time is about 140 years.
 
The deal is:  The UK will pay Mauritius about $222 million every year for the first 3 years, then from years 4 - 13 they will pay about $160 million.  "After that, payments will be linked to inflation."  The US will pay for the military base's 'running costs'.  The deal also includes approx $54 million trust fund to support the Chagossians.
 
PM Starmer said that President Trump approved the deal last year after negotiations were complete.

What is the UK's Chagos Islands deal and what has Trump said about it?
 
The deal was agreed to by the UK and Mauritius in May 2025 - but it has not yet been ratified by the UK Parliament...so it's still British territory.
 
At one time Mauritius was a British colony.  In 1965 the islands (which are some 1,250 miles away from Mauritius) were separated from Mauritius - the islands were purchased by Britain for about $3 million, which Mauritius said was part of the deal to gain independence from Britain.  They said t hey were 'pressured' to sell the islands.  Also, part of the deal was that "the islands would return to Mauritius once they were no longer needed for British defence."  
 
Mauritius has claimed sovereignty over the islands and in 2019 the International Court of Justice ruled the decolonisation of Mauritius was not lawful and the UK was "under an obligation to bring an end it is administration of the archipelago as rapidly as possible."  A treaty between the UK and Mauritius was signed by PM Keir Starmer on May 22, 2025.  Starmer said that legal action was not realistic.  "The UK could just ignore such orders but without an agreement it would not have legal grounds to prevent China or other nations from establishing bases on the other islands or conducting joint exercises near Diego Garcia, it was claimed."

Keir Starmer accuses Donald Trump of Chagos Islands deal reversal
 
 What's The Rub?:
 
 It seems that the US initially supported the 'deal' but then President Trump turned around and called it "an act of great stupidity" and "total weakness", citing national security reasons.  Some believe this has to do with Trump's interest in Greenland for "national security reasons".
 
The International Court of Justice is the U.N.'s judicial organ, located in The Hague.  The International Court has often been criticized - biased rulings, biased judges, illegal procedures and its lack of authority. 
 
I doubt China or Russia will care what the International Court of Justice has to say about anything.  In fact, the U.S. withdrew their "declaration consenting to jurisdiction".  So the U.S. doesn't care what the ICJ has to say.  And initially, the UK government didn't care either!!  Only PM Starmer's government took the ICJ's 'advise' on the matter as legally binding.
 
When the ICJ in 2019, "issued an advisory opinion on the arrangement, finding that the UK had an "obligation" to bring its administration of the islands to an end "as rapidly as possible".  This was NOT a legally binding judgment, and the Conservative administration in power at the time disagreed with it.  Less than a year after his election victory, Sir Keir (Starmer) announced that Labour was taking a different approach and striking a deal with Mauritius.  This is "absolutely vital" for the "safety and security of the British people," he said.  The government argues that the deal will guarantee the Diego Garcia base for the long term...and secure the base and islands against China or other states that may want to set up a presence there."
 
"Following Mr Trump's comments, a government spokesperson said, "The UK will never compromise our national security.  we acted because the base on Diego Garcia was under threat after the court decision undermined our position and would have prevented it operating as intended in the future."
What is the UK’s Chagos Islands deal and why has Trump labelled it ‘great stupidity’? | The Independent
 
Yet, Starmer seems to believe that the ICJ can keep China from 'establishing bases in the Chagos Islands or conducting joint exercises near Diego Garcia'.  Mautirius and China have strong bilateral relations - China is very much interested in economic development and 'financial services' with Mautirius.  Surely, PM Starmer knows of the tight connections between Mautirius and China...??
Mauritius and China chart new avenues for financial and economic cooperation
 
PM Starmer opened a can of worms....will Argentina sue in the ICJ, like Mautitius, for the Falkland Islands? 
 
What about the Cayman Islands?  Turks and Caicos Islands?  Bermuda?  British Virgin Islands?  Are those up for grabs?  Seems PM Starmer and his government are perfectly happy selling out the British people.
 
Is President Trump right about this being a 'stupid' decision?   The Chagossians are upset that they had no say in the agreement and they want it 'renegotiated' to include their rights to the islands.  And other parties in the UK are contesting the British government's actions in signing the agreement in the first place.  
 
And, "MPs will be digesting Trump's latest intervention when they debate a bill later in Parliament which is required for the Chagos deal to be ratified and brought into force."  The Commons and the House of Lords are working on the wording of the agreement.  And one amendment wants the total cost of the deal made public.

Chagos sovereignty no longer up for debate, says Mauritius, after Trump criticises UK deal - live updates - BBC News
 
Diego Garcia is an important military base....China moving on to adjoining islands would not be a good thing.  We used Diego Garcia for actions in the Middle East - this could compromise future operations and military operations to help Israel.
 
At the Davos meeting January 21, 2026 President Trump met with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte resulting in "President Donald Trump said on Thursday he had secured total and permanent U.S. access to Greenland in a deal with NATO, whose head said allies would have to step up their commitment to Arctic security to ward off threats from Russia and China.  News of a framework deal came as Trump backed off tariff threats and ruled out taking Greenland by force"...the details of the agreement have not been reached yet.
 
Does President Trump  has something similar in mind for the Chagos Islands?  Diego Garcia?  The military base on Diego Garcia was built to thwart Soviet military expansion in the area....but what about Chinese expansion today?  Does NATO consider China a threat too?  Will Russia expand in the area?  NATO knows Russia and China like seeing the West divided...will NATO step in for 'security' concerns like they did with Greenland?
 
Maranatha!
 
Chance