Chance (2 Feb 2020)
"The Pale Horse Part 2"


 
Hello John and Doves,

A bit more on the pharmaceutical impact of the coronavirus.

And I forgot to link the article on 'China as the world's pharmacy' on "The Pale Horse" letter.  Sorry.  Here it is -

https://www.usnews.com/news/best-countries/articles/2018-05-08/trumps-quest-for-lower-drug-prices-may-provoke-china-trade-war-experts-warn

China’s Lock on Prescription Supply a Weapon in Trump's Trade War | Best Countries | US News
(snip form article)
"Multinational drug companies, many of them headquartered in the United States, began buying ingredients for critical drugs in China after the U.S.-China Fair Trade Agreement passed nearly two decades ago.  State-owned Chinese companies, buoyed by heavy government subsidies, set their prices so low that they were able to undercut established manufactures in the U.S. and elsewhere, prompting them to shut down their plants and move their operations to China, the authors say." (end snip)

Big examples:  Johnson & Johnson opened a new research and development center in 2009 in Shanghai and Pfizer moved it's antibiotic research program to Shanghai.  Eli Lilly sold it's regional rights for two of it's major antibiotics (Vancocin and Ceclor - broad-spectrum antibiotics) along with a manufacturing facility to a drugmaker in China.

And now it may be India picking up the slack in drug manufacturing!

"Coronavirus outbreak: China shutdown to hit Indian drug manufacturers":  "Coronavirus outbreak is likely to disrupt supplies of drug ingredients for Indian pharma manufactures, mostly antibiotics and vitamin makers....Indian drug manufacturers are to a large extent dependent on China for sourcing their drug ingredients or the active pharmaceutical ingredients, as the industry words it.  This is largely for drugs like antibiotics - crucial among them being penicillin G (and other products based on it such as amoxicillin and ampicillin), tetracycline - and for vitamins such as vitamin C and D.  All of these are based on drug ingredients made using the fermentation-based process, an area where China has achieved global dominance.  Now the coronavirus scare has added a new dimension with an air of uncertainty around how the supply situation from China will unfold."

"Currently, the Chinese government has extended the New Year holidays.  They were to be from January 25th till February 3rd but will now be till around mid-February.  However, if these get further extended then,  Indian drug manufacturers mostly formulation plants, which use the drug ingredients and make the tables and capsules that we consume, could get impacted..India today is completely dependent on China for Penicillin G and this is not just for meeting the Indian market needs but also for supplies to the US with drugs based on this ingredient."

"Wuhan, the epicentre of the coronavirus is not really a major pharmaceutical manufacturing hub, though it has many units. It is regions like Zhejiang on the East coast of China, we are told by Indian pharma makers, that have more pharmaceutical manufacturing activity in China.  However,t he issue now is that the scare has gone beyond Wuhan and most are on alert. .....China has also taken a lead in other chemicals-based ingredients to such as those used to make some cardiovascular drugs or medicines to cater to heart conditions and for blood vessels such as cholesterol medications such as statins."

https://www.businesstoday.in/sectors/pharma/coronavirus-outbreak-china-shutdown-hit-indian-drug-manufacturers/story/395005.html
Coronavirus outbreak: China shutdown to hit Indian drug manufacturers

"Two quarantined in Zhejiang for Wuhan coronavirus"  January 20, 2020 So it's in China's eastern province of Zhejiang - where the most pharmaceutical manufacturing is in China!  https://www.thestandard.com.hk/breaking-news/section/3/140403/Two-quarantined-in-Zhejiang-for-Wuhan-coronavirus
Two quarantined in Zhejiang for Wuhan coronavirus | The Standard

This would be a perfect storm - China gets hit hard with the coronavirus and has all/most of the antibiotic producing capabilities...and these get shuttered due to the spread of the infection.  And other important drugs cease being manufactured.

Don't know if this virus will be one of the 'birth pangs', but it's off to a good start!

Pray for the peace of Jerusalem!

Maranatha!

Chance