Chance (2 Feb 2020)
"The Pale Horse"

Hello John and Doves,

We have probably all seen the extrapolated charts out now on the spread of the coronavirus, 2019-nCoV.  None of them are bearers of good news.

IF these projected infection/mortality rates are indeed a true prediction of this coronavirus, then the world is in a whole lot of trouble.

Here is one such chart that shows the progression of the infection - by 2/8/2020, 737,000 people will be infected and by 2/12/202 183,900,000 will be infected.  The chart is based on only ONE infected person infecting 2.0 to 2.5 people.  (I think this is very conservative because regular flu statistics show that one infected person infects 10 - 14 people and this new coronavirus is 'airborne' and transmissible between humans.)

To date I have seen mortality rates ranging from 11% to 20% (even one study showing it's closer to 50%).  So, it may be somewhere around 25% (or higher), as we doubt China is reporting the full extent/impact of this virus.

Revelation 6:8:  "Then I looked and saw a pale horse.  Its rider's name was Death, and Hades followed close behind.  And they were given authority over a fourth of the earth, to kill by sword, by famine, by plague, and by the beasts of the earth."

This plague and other pestilences written about in the New Testament that come about in the End Days...obviously, don't have a treatment (or a very poor treatment) - are there no antibiotics available? Or can no antibiotic be made?

If I was looking at this verse in terms of what is happening today...we have a POTENTIAL world pandemic/'Spanish Flu on steroids'.  A 25% mortality rate would take out a fourth of the population on earth.  The resulting famines, violence would add to the death toll.

Illness/death resulting from this virus is by flu-like symptoms along with breathlessness, fever, pneumonia, respiratory failure; and it's 'the hell on earth' for those infected, soon to be infected, and those afraid of being infected.  Being isolated/quarantined in a city, not knowing who/what is infected, how long this will last - shut off from the world, knowing hospitals are backed-up/overflowing, not knowing if help coming, must be a terrible burden to bear.  Fear and panic will spread the longer this continues.

60 million people in Chinese cities have been quarantined...businesses are closed; people are staying home; factories are shut down; people are sick and dying.  At some point, as this continues to spread through China and around the world, there will be less goods produced, less food planted/harvested/processed.  This could lead to a devastating famine.

As for violence/war...people will flee in fear trying to escape this and take over surrounding areas.  Plus, the extreme may happen - the culling of the population to prevent the spread.

Check out this article in the EPOCH Times:  "Faced with Existential Threat to Their Rule, Chinese Leaders Decide to Save 11 Cities From Coronavirus Epidemic:  Insider"  February 1, 2020 (see my other letter to Doves today)
Faced With Existential Threat to Their Rule, Chinese Leaders Decide to Save 11 Cities From Coronavirus Epidemic: Insider

As for 'the beasts of the earth' killing people - I never could get a grasp on this.  But this may be a couple of possible explanations -

"Commentary:  The Wuhan virus and the problem with the wildlife trade"  "The Wuhan virus outbreak suggests we still haven't learnt the lessons from SARS, says an expert....Early cases were linked to wildlife markets and restaurants in Guangdong, China where researchers found SARS-like coronaviruses in animals including palm civets and a raccoon dog."
Commentary: The Wuhan virus and the problem with the wildlife trade - CNA

"Field studies have revealed that the original source of SARS-CoV and MERS-Cov is the bat, and that the masked palm civets and camels, respectively, served as intermediate hosts between bats and humans.  In the case of this 2019 coronavirus outbreak, reports state that most of the first group of patients hospitalized were workers or customers at a local seafood wholesale market which also sold processed meats and live consumable animals including poultry, donkeys, sheep, pits, camels, foxes, badgers, bamboo rats, hedgehogs and reptiles...."

" the Journal of Medical Virology...scientists conducted an analysis and compared the genetic sequences of 2019-nCoV and all other known coronaviruses....the researchers used an analysis of the protein codes favored by the new coronavirus and compared it to the protein codes from coronaviruses found in different animals hosts, like birds, snakes, marmots, hedgehogs, manis, bats and humans.  Surprisingly, they found that the protein codes in the 2019-nCoV are most similar to those used in snakes.  Snakes often hunt for bats in the wild.  Reports indicate that snakes were sold in the local seafood market in Wuhan, raising the possibility that the 2019-nCoV might have jumped from the host species - bats - to snakes and then to humans at the beginning of this coronavirus outbreak.  However, how the virus could adapts to both the cold-blooded and warm-blooded hosts remains a mystery.  "
Did the coronavirus outbreak in Wuhan, China originate in snakes? Some scientist say it's likely | PhillyVoice

Not only are there viruses transmitted from people to people now but there may be a connection to spread from pets to people -

This article came out "Chinese residents 'ordered to cull pets amid fears they may spread coronavirus'  "Local authorities across a number of provinces have supposedly taken the drastic step after coming under pressure from higher-ups to do more to tackle the epidemic.  Villagers in Hubei were urged to 'deal with' furry companions within five days, while residents in Shanxi were handed notices asking them to 'consider the overall situation' and dispose of cats and dogs immediately."
Chinese residents 'ordered to cull pets amid fears they may spread coronavirus' | Metro News

These early articles about 2019-nCoV are 'assuming' this virus came from an animal, mutated, and was able to infect people.  Latest research is questioning this.

IF this was a virus created in the BSL-4 lab in Wuhan, China, the researchers would start with a known virus, such as a coronavirus from an animal, and then they would design the virus to fit certain criteria - infect a human host (make insertions in it's RNA to accomplish this); survive a long time in the environment (durability); route of infection - e.g. airborne, open wound, in water, food; lethality rate - e.g. moderate to high; the incubation period (the longer, the more potential for spread), have multiple hosts - e.g. humans, pets - dogs/cats; transmissible between humans, contagious before symptoms show up, the ability to re-infect, etc.

We know this about this virus now:  it infects humans, in can survive 28 days or longer in the environment, it is airborne, the lethality rate is somewhere around 20% (or higher), the incubation rate is up to 14 days (or longer), there is human to human transfer (maybe pet to human transfer - not confirmed yet), it is spread before symptoms show up, and some infected people are asymptomatic.  Also, some may have a long illness with death occurring later.

So, has the pale horse and rider shown up in the world?  This virus has already made an appearance in numerous countries around the world; and many countries now with multiple cases!  All it takes is ONE infected person....

"Is the Cornavirus Part of the Bible's Prophesied Disease Pandemics?  January 28, 2020 "Scientists at Imperial College London calculate that each individual infected by Wuhan has gone on to spread it to two or three other people.  And they calculate the death rate around 1 in 50, which is comparable to the rate of the Spanish Flu in the United Kingdom.  Worldwide, the Spanish Flu killed as much as 5 percent of Earth's total population..."

"The Scriptures reveal that, whether the Wuhan Coronavirus fizzles out or not, the gains against disease that mankind has made in recent years will soon be lost.  The pale horseman is not finished riding.  But each person could have some say as to whether he or she will be in his path - or not."
Bible | Philadelphia Church of God

This new coronavirus isn't the only bad news coming out of China!

Adding to this, China has become the world's pharmacy - vitamins, drugs, antibiotics, supplements.  "..the key ingredients for so many essential drugs, from antibiotics and birth control pills to treatments for cancer, depression, high cholesterol and HIV/AIDS, are purchased from China, says Rosemary Gibson, co-author with Janardan Prasad Singh of a new book called "ChinaRx:  Exposing the Risks of America's Dependence on China for Medicine."  "China has exclusive manufacturing agreements for drugs for anesthesia, cancer, and HIV/AIDS, along with other medicines that "we use every day, not only in hospitals but in our own medicine chests,"  Gibson says, adding that China is now the world's only source of antibiotics, including the main ingredient in vancomycin, a treatment of last resort that is used by patients who are suffering from infections that are resistant to other treatment."

With all of the antibiotics that China has at their disposable to treat this coronavirus 2019-nCoV and it is out of control for does that bode well for the rest of the world?  What is going to happen to those 60 million people in those Chinese quarantined cities?

Pray for the people of China!  This is a long ways from over.

Pray for the peace of Jerusalem!



New alert today, 2/1/2020:  Department of Defense selects Fort Carson, CO, Travis AFB & Marine Air Station Miramar, CA, and Lackland AFB, TX as possible quarantine sites for 2019-nCoV overseas evacuees.  (THEY are finally seeing this virus as 'not good'.  Maybe a little too late...).