Hello John and Doves,
Well, the news isn't getting better about the coronavirus infection, Covid-19. No reason to sugar coat this.
More experts are making dire predictions about the spread of this virus. Estimating it could infect billions of people... eventually. At a mortality rate of 2% it could kill more than 100 million people. Some are predicting a mortality rate of 20%!
Ira Longini, an adviser to WHO and co-director of the Center for Statistics and Quantitative Infectious Diseases, "tracked studies of the virus's transmissibility in China. His estimate implies that there could eventually be billions more infections than the current official tally of about 60,000." His model is based on an RO value of two or three. One person infects two or three other people. He said that "isolating cases and quarantining contacts is not going to stop this virus."https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-02-13/coronavirus-could-infect-two-thirds-of-globe-researcher-says
Coronavirus Could Infect Two-Thirds of Globe, Research Shows - Bloomberg
A leading epidemiologist is also looking at the coronavirus spreading to two-thirds of the world's population if it can not be contained...(article link below)
Gabriel Leung is "Hong Kong's leading public health epidemiologist" and "the chair of public health medicine at Hong Kong University" and "one of the world's experts on coronavirus epidemics". "If the virus isn't halted, it could infect 60 per cent of the world's population and kill one in 100 of those infected - around 50 million people.."
"Is 60-80% of the world's population going to get infected? Maybe not. Maybe this will come in waves. Maybe the virus is going to attenuate its lethality because it certainly doesn't help it if it kills everybody in its path, because it will get killed as well," he said. "Have these massive public health interventions, social distancing, and mobility restrictions worked in China?" he asked. "If so, how can we roll them out, or is it not possible?" There would be difficulties. "Let's assume that they have worked. But how long can you close schools for? How long can you lock down an entire city for? How long can you keep people away from shopping malls? And if you remove those (restrictions), then is it all going to come right back and rage again? So those are very real questions," he said.
If China's lockdown has not worked, there is another unpalatable truth to face: that the cornavirus might not be possible to contain. ...Leung said the period of time when people were infected but showed no symptoms remained a huge problem. Quarantine was necessary, but to ensure people were not still carrying the virus when they left, everybody should ideally be tested every couple of days. If anyone within a quarantine camp or on a stricken cruise ship tested positive, the clock should be reset to 14 days more for all the others.https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/coronavirus-could-infect-60-25-of-global-population-if-unchecked/ar-BBZRUnU
Dr. Eric Feigl-Ding is an epidemiologist with a doctorate in epidemiology and public health scientist on the faculty at Harvard. He commented on a calculated RO value for this new coronavirus of 3.8. "How bad is that reproductive RO value? It is thermonuclear pandemic level bad ..." "By early February, the doctor warns that nearly a quarter of a million Chinese could be infected.....Thus, I really hate to be the epidemiologist who has to admit this, but we are potentially faced with possibly an unchecked pandemic that the world has not seen since the 1918 Spanish Influenza." "What is the typical RO attack rate for the seasonal flu in most years? It's around an RO =1.28. The 2009 flu pandemic? RO=1.48. The 1918 Spanish Flu? 1.80 This new #WuhanCoronavirus reproductive value again? RO=-3.8" "Let's pretend that the 3.8 estimate is way too high (there's unpublished estimates of 2.5) even if this virus's RO=2.5, that's still 2x higher than the seasonal flu's 1.28, and higher that 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic of 1.80 that killed millions. So 2.8 is still super bad folks." https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/thermonuclear-pandemic-level-bad-harvard-epidemiologist-warns-viral-outbreak-might-get
"Thermonuclear, Pandemic-Level Bad" - Harvard Epidemiologist Warns Viral Outbreak Might Get A Lot Worse | Zero Hedge
"I think at this point, containment is already a lost cause," said Michael Osterholm, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota....."To the extent that we have to deal with this, if this in fact is being transmitted like influenza, there there really isn't much chance to contain it," he said. "We can surely minimize transmission in health care facilities and some public spaces. But beyond that, this virus is going to kind of do what it damn pleases." Several other experts, while offering somewhat more optimistic outlooks, agreed that the world was entering a critical phase that will determine - over the next few weeks - whether the epidemic that has spread from China to at least two dozen other countries will go nuclear."https://www.thedailybeast.com/coronavirus-pandemic-worst-case-scenario-is-ugly-experts-say
Coronavirus Pandemic Worst-Case Scenario Is Ugly, Experts Say
With the SARS outbreak, the infected person was not contagious until symptoms showed up. With this new coronavirus asymptomatic people are contagious. That's a BIG deal! Many believe China is under reporting the number infected and the number deceased...by a large number.
A few interesting tidbits:
Hong Kong schools are to remain closed until after March 16
Royal Caribbean cruises has cancelled 18 cruises. (Who wants to get stuck on a ship for two extra weeks!?)
The Ontario couple who 'recovered' from Covid-19 are still testing positive for coronavirus! Nasal and throat swabs taken since they were released from the hospital two weeks ago continue to be positive. (this is really bad news - but haven't seen anyone address this - what to do with these people)
A North Korean official who was positive for the coronavirus and in quarantine, was executed for going to a public bath. (quarantines are taken very seriously in NK)
February 14 is the last day to fly from San Francisco to mainland China.
There are some out there thinking this might have been caused by the Chinese testing a vaccine and the vaccine 'had gone bad'...causing disease instead of creating immunity. Hmmmm.
Health experts warn Congress coronavirus may hit the US hard in the next two to four weeks.
The TV news still isn't putting much time into reporting on this outbreak. Most of the time is spent on Trump, Barr, Pelosi, etc.
Regular flu is hitting much of the U.S. pretty hard this year. I'm keeping a low profile - wearing a surgical mask at doctors' offices, the grocery store, avoiding as many public places as possible, etc. Not worth getting sick.
Stay safe! Practice good hygiene and stay well!
Our prayers are for those infected and those who will get infected. God help us!
Pray for the peace of Jerusalem!
Maranatha!
Chance
Thought I'd look up the number 19 in Strong's - Covid-19 - the new name for the coronavirus disease: '19' in Hebrew means 'slaughter'