Dear Jon,My friend Aaron Williams sends me this collection of news about Russian military space projects as a prophetic reminder about how we are in the generation which will see judgment upon the Babylonish systems, and the Lord Jesus will have His way with His followers who are responsive to the Holy Spirit.For a Bible-based prophetic view which helps explain these events, my best source currently is the writings of the late J. Leland Earls. Concerning the arising "Beast" systems ( the land beast and the sea beast), I look mostly to this published book: http://www.firstloveministry.com/Earls/pfot_1/0105-trumpet5.htmIt goes into an understanding of "the fifth trumpet" as you can see.Further explanation of these prophetic events is available in books titled "The Third Rome" and "Revived Roman Empire - Fact or Fiction" available, so far as I know, only from Shepherdsfield Center for Biblical Studies ( see http://www.sfcbs.org/ or email info@sfcbs.org for information).Some Russian space military issues as of Feb 2015
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Expert Says Russia, China and U.S. All Working on 'Satellite Killers'
By Matthew Bodner
Nov. 18 2014 21:32 Last edited 21:33
Sergei Porter / Vedomosti
A Russian armed forces spy satellite being displayed as part of an international exhibition of military equipment.
A previously unknown Russian spacecraft conducting maneuvers characteristic of a satellite killer has sparked concerns that Russia's military provocations may soon extend to space, but experts say Russia is not the only major space power developing agile and potentially deadly capabilities in Earth's orbit.
Western space agencies, militaries and amateur observers are tracking a mysterious Russian satellite that could be a satellite hunter a spacecraft that trails enemy satellites and then destroys or disables them, The Financial Times reported on Monday.
Amid Russia's showdown with the West over Ukraine the discovery looks ominous, but all the big space-faring nations Russia, China and the U.S. are developing similar capabilities, Robert Christy, a veteran amateur satellite tracker, told The Moscow Times by phone.
"In a nutshell, you've got all three countries doing the same thing," he said.
See also: Top 5 Jaw-Dropping Soviet Military Space Projects
Suspicious Movements
Amateur observers such as Christy using publicly available orbital tracking data first noticed a Russian spacecraft earlier this summer, when an object classified as a small piece of space debris by the U.S. Space Tracking Network suddenly began changing its orbit.
Only after it had been flagged by monitors did the Russian Defense Ministry register the object, Christy said. It's launch had been unannounced, sparking suspicions over its possible military intention. It is now known in the international catalogue as Kosmos-2499.
The Russian Defense Ministry could not be reached for comment on the purpose of Kosmos-2499 on Tuesday.
The available tracking data shows that on Nov. 9, Kosmos-2499 zipped to within "tens of meters" of its carrier rocket, a minuscule distance relative to those traveled by spacecraft in orbit around Earth.
Military Application
Dr. James Oberg, a former NASA engineer and expert on the Russian space program told The Moscow Times: "Autonomous rendezvous by small satellites has always been considered a useful capability, for purposes of resupply, repair, inspection or even negation. The fact that the recent Chinese and Russian experiments have been done with no official announcements, and appear independent of already existing [civilian] rendezvous systems, does suggest to me they are not for peaceful purposes."
Oberg said killer satellites can be deployed into much higher orbits, where vital navigation, communication, and observation satellites are deployed, than ground-launched anti-satellite missiles, making the technology demonstrated by Kosmos-2499 militarily significant.
At close range a hostile satellite could take photographs of secret satellite hardware and intercept signals sent to the satellite from its ground controllers. Or it could initiate a cyber attack on the satellite, shoot it or disable it by ripping its solar panels off with a robotic arm.
"Furthermore, such systems must have long-duration flight capability, which implies they can be placed nearby potential targets and passively await the moment of activation for months or even years, probably without detection," Oberg added.
The U.S. Air Force maintains a database of all known objects orbiting Earth including Russian and Chinese, but not U.S., military spacecraft which amateur space trackers use to monitor the activity of satellites and spacecraft.
But although space is being watched, the inherent dual-use nature of space technology makes it easy to clothe military escapades in civilian clothing. It is easy to measure capability, but not intent.
And on capability Russia is not ahead of the pack. Indeed, Earth's orbit has seen plenty of potential satellite killers: "A tiny British satellite attempted such a feat and almost succeeded in the summer of 2000. The U.S. performed such maneuvers at least twice [since then]. And China performed at least three such missions in the last four years," said Igor Lissov, editor of Novosti Kosmonavtiki, a popular Russian space journal.
Contact the author at bizreporter@imedia.ru
See also:
Top 5 Jaw-Dropping Soviet Military Space Projects
Russia May Be Planning National Space Station to Replace ISS
European Space Food Falls Victim to Russian Food Import BanUS missile defense system cannot intercept Russian strategic missiles deputy PM
http://tass.ru/en/world/773284
World January 26, 11:50 UTC+3
MOSCOW, January 26. /TASS/. The American missile defense system is unable to counter Russias strategic missiles, Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin said on Monday.
Neither the current nor even prospective American missile defense system can stop or challenge Russian strategic missile potential, Rogozin said in a program on the Rossiya 1 TV channel.
However, the deputy prime minister declined to specify any technical characteristics of Russias strategic missiles.
INFOGRAPHICS
The US missile defense system and NATO European Missile Defense System
The US has announced plans to reject the deployment of the fourth stage of the missile defense system
in Europe and to refocus towards protection against potential North Korea missile attacks. Infographics by TASS
Top General Says Russia to Create Aerospace Force in 2015
The Moscow TimesJan. 14 2015 18:40 Last edited 18:42
Pixabay
Russia will add a new branch to its armed forces later this year with the creation of an Aerospace Force, the country's top general has said.
"The Aerospace Force will be created by merging two types of the currently existing armed forces the Air Force and the Space Defense Force," General Valery Gerasimov, a deputy defense minister, was cited as saying by TASS on Tuesday.
The report did not provide any details on the new force's potential deployment.
Russia's military is also working on expanding its system for missile attack warning, Gerasimov was quoted as saying.
88888
Russia to Consider Building Own Space Station
ReutersDec. 15 2014 16:39 Last edited 16:39
Wikicommons
Russia is considering building its own space station.
Russian state space agency Roscosmos is considering building its own space station, RIA news agency quoted its chief as saying on Monday, underlining how international tensions are affecting space cooperation.
Such a project would rival the International Space Station (ISS), an orbiting laboratory that involves 15 nations including Russia and the United States. Moscow has cast doubt on the ISS's long-term future as ties with Washington plummet over Ukraine.
"I confirm we are considering such an option. This is a possible direction of development," RIA quoted Roscosmos head Oleg Ostapenko as saying when asked about whether Russia has plans to develop it own space station.
He said such a space station could become a key part of Russian missions to the moon.
It is not clear how such a project would be financed as Russia is widely expected to enter recession next year and the economic crisis is aggravated by Western sanctions over Russia's policy in the Ukraine crisis.
Washington wants to keep the $100 billion ISS in use until at least 2024, four years beyond the previous target. But a Russian government official said in May that Moscow would reject Washington's request to prolong its operations.
The Russian space station Mir, launched by the Soviet Union in 1986, operated until 2001 and President Vladimir Putin is now seeking to reform Russia's once-pioneering space industry after years of budget cuts and a brain drain that led to a series of embarrassing and costly failed launches in recent years.
See also:
Russia May Be Planning National Space Station to Replace ISS
Russia's Space Agency Floats $230 Billion Lunar Exploration Plan
Russia Plans Massive Productivity and Wage Hike for Space Industry Workforce
Russia's Space Agency Floats $230 Billion Lunar Exploration Plan
By Matthew BodnerDec. 05 2014 19:47 Last edited 19:46
Marcos Brindicci / Reuters
According to the report, only 10 percent of the funds will be used to develop new technology required for missions to the moon.
Russia's federal space agency Roscosmos has drawn up a 12.5 trillion ruble ($235 billion) lunar exploration program through 2050, the TASS news agency reported late last week.
Moscow has recently been investing heavily in its space program, hoping to ensure that Russia remains a pre-eminent spacefaring power well into the future. In April, President Vladimir Putin pledged a massive 1.8 trillion ruble ($34 billion) funding hike through 2020 aimed at modernizing the space industry's decaying infrastructure.
Roscosmos is keen to extend those plans to include a moon landing something the Soviets never achieved and even building a lunar base.
TASS on Friday obtained a detailed though as yet unapproved strategy for moon missions between now and 2050.
According to the document, the first phase of the program will cost about 2 trillion rubles ($37 billion) from 2014 to 2025, with annual expenditures ranging from 16 billion to 320 billion rubles ($300 million to $6 billion).
Phase 2 of the program will take place between 2026 and 2035. This stage would require 4.5 trillion rubles ($84 billion), with annual spending between 290 billion to 690 billion rubles ($5.5 billion to $13 billion) per year.
The peak spending load will take place during 2030-32 the period in which cosmonauts begin to land on the moon and construct a lunar space station, TASS cited the document as saying.
The final stage of the program would cost about 6 trillion rubles ($112 billion), with annual spending loads ranging from 250 billion to 570 billion rubles ($4.5 billion to $10.5 billion).
According to the report, only 10 percent of the funds will be used to develop new technology required for missions to the moon. The majority of the cash will be spent on operating and maintaining hardware.
Importantly, the report has calculated its funding figures based on the ruble's 2013 value. The Russian currency has depreciated by nearly 40 percent against the U.S. dollar this year as Western sanctions and falling oil prices have hit Russia's economy, radically curbing its international buying power.
Contact the author at bizreporter@imedia.ru
See also:
Roscosmos Wants $770 Million to Take Russia to the Moon
Roscosmos Wants $440 Million to Build Inflatable Space Stations
Russia May Be Planning National Space Station to Replace ISS
Roscosmos Wants $440 Million to Build Inflatable Space Stations
The Moscow TimesAug. 25 2014 21:03 Last edited 21:04
Bill Ingalls / NASA
A Nasa official being shown around the facilities of the Bigelow Aerospace firm in Las Vegas, Nevada.
Russia's space agency, Roscosmos, has requested 16 billion rubles ($440 million) for the development of inflatable space station habitats, Interfax reported Monday, citing a copy of the proposed federal space program for 2016-2025.
The program, which Russian media reports say was submitted to the government last week, contains proposals for a number of ambitious projects, including moon bases and super-heavy lift rockets.
Two inflatable space station modules which are generally made by surrounding a flexible air bladder with interwoven layers of Kevlar and Mylar, and are lighter and cheaper to launch than metal-cylinder versions were tested by U.S.-based Bigelow Aerospace in 2006 and 2007. NASA is also looking to develop its own inflatable modules for the International Space Station and future space station projects.
Roscosmos, whose involvement in the International Space Station program through 2020 is hanging in the balance due to the Ukraine crisis, wants to build its own inflatable module with a five-year lifespan and a pressurized compartment volume of 300 cubic meters that would be ready for launch in 2021, the report said.
It is unclear whether the Russian module would be part of the International Space Station program or an independent Russian space station, plans for which have been discussed by Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin, who oversees the Russian space industry. Roscosmos has so far declined to comment on the strategy document, which has yet to be approved.
See also:
Botched Galileo Launch Threatens Russia's Space Rocket Industry
Botched Satellite Launch Shakes Russia's Space Rocket Industry
By Matthew BodnerAug. 25 2014 20:59 Last edited 20:59
European Space Agency
The next two Galileo satellites are scheduled to launch in December aboard the Soyuz-FG-type rocket.
Russia's space agency, Roscosmos, has launched an independent investigation into the cause of Friday's botched launch of two brand-new European navigation satellites aboard a Soyuz rocket amid fears that the accident will destroy already weak consumer confidence in the country's space industry.
Four years behind schedule, Friday's launch in Kourou, French Guiana, of the first two fully operational Galileo satellites the EU's answer to the U.S. GPS and Russian Glonass satellite navigation systems was supposed to be a momentous occasion for the European space community. But after initially hailing the launch as a success, flight engineers on the ground noticed that the rocket had delivered the satellites into the wrong orbit.
Officials from the European Space Agency, or ESA, which manages the Galileo project, have yet to declare the satellites officially "lost." But given their position relative to their intended orbits they are likely now useless.
With European investigations into the cause of the botched launch already under way, Russia's space community has launched its own internal investigation. Though the Soyuz rockets launched from Kourou are operated not by the Russian space agency but by French firm Arianespace, they are bought and made in Russia.
Two possibilities have been floated: a hardware failure in the Fregat booster, which forms the upper-stage of the Soyuz rocket the part that actually flies in space and was responsible for the final placing of the satellites; or a confused guidance system, Interfax reported Monday, citing an unidentified official from Roscosmos.
Partnership Undermined
The Galileo navigation system is a flagship high-tech project for the EU-backed ESA. Its realization would curtail Europe's reliance on the U.S. GPS, which could be shut off by the U.S. military during times of war. It has also been billed as a European job creator, with the market for satellite navigation-based services expected to reach a value of $320 billion by 2020.
ESA has budgeted 5 billion euros ($6.6 billion) for the project, which plans to have 30 satellites in orbit by 2017. The satellites that were lost on Friday were the first to be launched. They were uninsured.
Though the space business is notoriously difficult, the cost of losing such a high-value and symbolic payload could be serious for Russia's commercial launch industry, which is already struggling to find and retain new customers amid tensions sparked by the crisis in Ukraine and concerns over quality control after a series of high-profile launch failures began plaguing the industry in 2011.
Russian rockets have enjoyed a prominent position on the global launch market since the fall of the Soviet Union. Last year, Proton rockets alone, sold via International Launch Services, accounted for 30 percent of commercial launches worldwide.
International Launch Services and Sea Launch, which were responsible for selling commercial launches of Russia's heavy-lift Proton and light Zenit rockets, recently announced that they were cutting staff and reducing their launch expectations amid a slowdown in customer demand. Both rockets have experienced launch failures in the past three years.
One of the more noteworthy crashes to undermine trust in Russia's space competence involved a Proton rocket in June 2013. The rocket's guidance system was installed upside down, and when it tried to correct its trajectory after lifting off, it drove itself immediately into the ground.
The future of the Soyuz rocket had looked bright thanks to the partnership with Arianespace. The French rocket firm began buying Soyuz rockets from Russia in 2005 to meet demand for medium-weight payloads and spent $800 million to develop a Soyuz launch pad at the ESA spaceport in Kourou, French Guiana.
Arianespace does not have its own medium booster, only the lightweight Vega rocket and the heavyweight Ariane 5, making Soyuz with its general reputation for success a good option to include in its launch services.
The rockets started flying from Kourou in October 2011. After purchasing an initial 10 Soyuz rockets, Arianespace in April signed a new $400 million contract with Roscosmos for the delivery of an additional 16 Soyuz boosters to cover demand for medium-sized payloads including the Galileo satellites through 2019.
Now it is not clear what will become of those agreements. Confidence in the abilities of the Russian space industry have been degrading over the past several years, and Friday's bungle only adds to the disquiet.
"Of course, this will influence Russia's competitive abilities in the launch market," Pavel Luzin, a space policy expert at the Institute of World Economics and International Relations, told The Moscow Times on Monday.
"Launch vehicle crashes can happen. But due to current political tensions between Russia and the West, the accident with the two Galileo satellites may lead to a revision of launch contracts," he said.
Erosion of Trust
In a statement released on Saturday, Arianespace said it would not fly the Soyuz rocket until the cause of Friday's botched launch is clearer.
The next two Galileo satellites are scheduled to launch in December aboard the same Soyuz-FG-type rocket that was used on Friday. In total, ESA plans to launch eight more Galileo satellites on the Soyuz rocket over the next three years. These satellites will be buttressed by 12 more that will be launched aboard French Ariane-5 heavy-lift rockets by 2017.
Soyuz rockets have been flown in various forms since the late 1960s the current model is based on the same design that flew Yury Gagarin and Sputnik into space and today are used to send cosmonauts and supplies to the International Space Station. In this role, they are the only means of reaching the space station.
Friday's failure is unlikely to effect this role, as investigators are so far blaming Soyuz's upper-stage rocket, Fregat. Fregat upper-stage boosters are used to deploy unmanned spacecraft upon reaching orbit and are not used in ISS runs.
See also:
Space Agency Wants $6 Billion to Get Russian Boots on the Moon by 2030
Russia May Be Planning National Space Station to Replace ISS
By Matthew BodnerNov. 17 2014 20:35 Last edited 20:35
Andrei Makhonin / Vedomosti
A model of the long considered space station hanging at a Moscow exhibition on space exploration in 2009.
Russia may be planning to build a new, independent national space station rather than prolong its participation in the $150 billion International Space Station (ISS) program beyond its current 2020 end date, the Kommersant newspaper reported Monday.
The U.S. space agency NASA proposed last year to extend the life of the ISS the largest international project ever undertaken by nations during peacetime beyond its currently scheduled 2020 end date to at least 2024.
While engineering studies quickly found that the station was structurally capable of surviving well into the 2020s, the space agencies involved in the project are now waiting for government approval to extend the project. But with the conflict in Ukraine driving a wedge between Russia and the West, officials in Moscow have said they may reject NASA's offer and chart their own path in space marking a possible regression to Cold War-style competitive space exploration
Although no official word from Russian space officials has yet been issued on an ISS extension, a senior source at the Central Research Institute of Machine Building (TsNIIMash) the federal space agency's think tank told Kommersant on Monday that Russia will begin constructing a new space station to replace its segment of the ISS as early as 2017.
Referring to three modules currently intended to be attached to the ISS between 2017 and 2018, the source said: "The initial configuration [of the new Russian space station] will be constructed on the foundation of the Multipurpose Laboratory Module, a node module, and the OKA-T free-floating laboratory spacecraft."
Russian space industry analyst Pavel Luzin told The Moscow Times that he did not put much stock in the proposal.
"How can they suddenly plan a new space station? It's impossible," he said, adding that although there are new ISS modules on the way, they are in various states of completion and require additional funding.
TsNIIMash's press service declined to comment when asked by The Moscow Times to confirm the existence of plans for the new space station. Russia's federal space agency, Roscosmos, did not respond to a request for confirmation.
Later on Monday, Interfax cited an unidentified Roscosmos source as saying that the agency had no plans to begin developing a new space station in 2017, and that such a proposal would be technically and financially unfeasible.
Old Idea, New Circumstances
Proposals for a new Russian manned space station project known as the Orbital Piloted Assembly and Experiment Complex (OPSEK, in Russian) predate the current period of U.S.-Russian tensions as well as NASA's recent proposal to extend the ISS program beyond 2020.
Since as early as 2004, Russian space officials have planned on using their ISS modules to build a new national space station once the international program draws to a close in 2020.
But according to Kommersant's TsNIIMash source, Russia is now looking to bypass the ISS altogether and use the upcoming modules to create a brand-new space station three years ahead of schedule.
According to the paper, the new space station would be placed in an orbital inclination the path a spacecraft or space station follows relative to the Earth's equator better suited for Russian launches from its new Vostochny Cosmodrome in the far-eastern Amur region and the northern Plesetsk cosmodrome.
This would allow Russia to easily use to station as a base for testing yet-undeveloped spacecraft to transport people to the moon and into deep space. The path, angled at almost 70 degrees off the Earth's equator, also allows the station to observe 90 percent of Russia's territory, including the Arctic shelf.
Follow the Money
Although budgetary and logistical aspects of developing a new space station independent of the ISS before 2020 are not yet known, several statements and Russian media reports from earlier this year offer insight into Russia's intentions.
In September, Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin who oversees the space industry announced that the upcoming federal space program for 2016-2025 would allocate an unprecedented 321 billion rubles ($6.8 billion) to further develop and utilize the ISS, and complete the OKA-T free-flying laboratory module.
This number far exceeded the 215 billion rubles that Russia has spent on the ISS from 2001 to 2012 the period during which the space station was being constructed.
In October, Roscosmos deputy director Dennis Lyskov said Russia was evaluating its future in the ISS program in the context of its lunar ambitions, and spoke of using Russia's three new ISS modules as the basis for a new space station.
Meanwhile, leaked excerpts of the federal space plan indicate that 4 billion rubles ($84 million) will be spent to launch the new Multipurpose Laboratory Module, a central hub module, and a docking module to ISS in 2017, but does not mention a new space station in the near term.
Another module identified as part of the new space station, according to Kommersant's diagram, appears to be an inflatable space station module a technology currently being pioneered by U.S. commercial space firm Bigelow Aerospace in partnership with NASA.
In a leaked excerpt from Russia's upcoming federal space program for 2016-2025, Roscosmos is requesting 16 billion rubles ($338 million) to develop a 300-cubic-meter inflatable space station module of its own.
Regardless of what Russia intends to do with its new space hardware, officials at all levels have persistently stated that Roscosmos will honor its commitments to the ISS until 2020. With the government set to rule on both the extension of the ISS program and the proposed federal space program as early as December, the stars may be aligning for Russia to pull out of space cooperation with the U.S.
Contact the author at bizreporter@imedia.ru
See also:
Expert Says Russia, China and U.S. All Working on 'Satellite Killers'
Top 5 Jaw-Dropping Soviet Military Space Projects
Russia's Energomash Dreams Up Reusable Rocket Engine Design
Top 5 Jaw-Dropping Soviet Military Space Projects
By Matthew BodnerNov. 18 2014 20:52 Last edited 20:52
Andrei Makhonin / Vedomosti
The Soviet Union had some extravagant military plans for space.
The military heritage of space technology dates back to Nazi Germany, which produced the V2 ballistic missiles that terrorized Britain in World War II. The Soviet Union and the United States picked up the pieces of that program after the war. The U.S. divided its space program in two military and civilian while the Soviets had only one program. Moscow claimed its efforts were civilian through and through, but it continued to pursue military projects sometimes in secret and other times under the guise of civilian projects.
The Moscow Times takes a look at the Soviet Union's top five military space projects.
See also: Russia's Isn't the Only 'Satellite Killer' in Space
1. 1950s R-7 Intercontinental Ballistic Missile
Wikicommons
An R-7 ICBM on display at Moscow's VDNKh Park.
The missile that launched humanity into the space age. The R-7 was developed by genius Ukrainian-born rocket designer Sergei Korolyov to be the ultimate weapon, which Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev hoped would eradicate U.S. nuclear superiority by rendering its massive fleet of strategic bombers obsolete. On Oct. 4, 1957, the R-7 found another use, launching Sputnik 1, the world's first satellite. The program eventually evolved into the modern day Soyuz rocket.
2. 1960s Kamikaze Satellites
Wikicommons
A U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency illustration of a Soviet kamikaze satellite.
When aerial reconnaissance planes were overtaken by orbiting spy satellites in the 1960s, the Soviet Union sought to find a way to destroy the U.S.'s prying eyes in the sky. The solution was relatively straightforward. Pack a satellite's chassis with explosives, and maneuver it close enough to damage enemy satellites with explosive shrapnel as their orbits crossed. The Soviets tested it on their own satellites but never deployed the weapon offensively.
3. 1960s-70s MiG-105 "Spiral"
Wikicommons
A prototype of the MiG-105 on display at Moscow's Central Air Force Museum.
This small spaceplane was intended to be an answer to a similar U.S. Air Force program known as Dyna-Soar. It was a small, one man spacecraft that would ride to orbit on top of a rocket. It had room for a small payload such as a satellite, reconnaissance equipment or weapons and would return to earth and land like a plane. Research done for the MiG-105 proved invaluable in the late 1970s, when Brezhnev, convinced that the U.S. Space Shuttle was actually a space bomber, ordered his space industry to create a space shuttle of their own, the Buran, for parity's sake.
4. 1970s Almaz Space Stations
Wikicommons
The Zarya module, the core component of the International Space Station, is a derivative of the Almaz military space station family.
Both the U.S. and the Soviet Union for a time played with the idea of stationing military personnel in special space stations to spy on each other. The U.S. never launched a military space station, but the Soviets who pioneered the field of space station design in the 1970s launched three, known as Almaz. However, they never admitted it. The three Almaz space stations, which were reportedly armed with space cannons to repel boarders, were launched under the auspices of the civilian Salyut space station program. The idea was eventually abandoned because satellites proved to be more efficient for reconnaissance.
5. 1980s Polyus Battlestation
The Polyus Battlestation in its assembly hall.
Although details remain murky concerning the Polyus spacecraft, reports have begun to surface in recent years that show the Soviets were pursuing the development of an epic battle station in space intended to threaten U.S. President Ronald Reagan's star wars missile defense initiative with its satellite-killing laser. A prototype of the space station was launched in 1987, but failed to reach orbit and fell back to earth, according to a report in Air & Space Magazine.
Polyus, if its launch had been successful, would have been a game-changer. The Soviet Union would have beaten the U.S. to deploying a space based laser weapons system a project that Washington eventually abandoned with little to show for it.
Contact the author at bizreporter@imedia.ru
NATO Anxious Over Russia's Nuclear Strategy
ReutersFeb. 05 2015 14:14 Last edited 14:27
D.Grishkin / Vedomosti
The Russian "Bear" nuclear-capable bomber and two MiG-29 jet fighter aircraft.
Concern is growing in NATO over Russia's nuclear strategy and indications that Russian military planners may be lowering the threshold for using nuclear weapons in any conflict, alliance diplomats say.
NATO officials have drawn up an analysis of Russian nuclear strategy that will be discussed by alliance defense ministers at a meeting in Brussels on Thursday.
The study comes amid high tension between NATO and Russia over the Ukraine conflict and rising suspicions on both sides that risk plunging Europe back into a Cold War-style confrontation.
Western concerns have also been fueled by increasingly aggressive Russian air and sea patrolling close to NATO's borders, such as two Russian "Bear" nuclear-capable bombers that flew over the English Channel last week.
The threat of nuclear war that once hung over the world has eased since the Cold War amid sharp reductions in warheads but Russia and the United States, NATO's main military power, retain massively destructive nuclear arsenals.
Russia's nuclear strategy appears to point to a lowering of the threshold for using nuclear weapons in any conflict, NATO diplomats say.
"What worries us most in this strategy is the modernization of the Russian nuclear forces, the increase in the level of training of those forces and the possible combination between conventional actions and the use of nuclear forces, including possibly in the framework of a hybrid war," one diplomat said.
Russia's use of hybrid warfare in Ukraine, combining elements such as unmarked soldiers, disinformation and cyber attacks, has led NATO's military planners to review their strategies for dealing with Russia.
All the NATO countries, except France which is not a member, will meet on Thursday as part of NATO's Nuclear Planning Group, which NATO officials describe as a routine meeting focusing on the safety and effectiveness of NATO's nuclear deterrent.
Implications
But all 28 ministers, including U.S. Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel, will have a broader discussion of Russia's nuclear strategy over lunch. No immediate action is expected from NATO's side.
Ministers are likely to ask officials to look into the implications of Russia's nuclear strategy for the alliance, and only then could there be any consideration of whether any changes were needed to NATO's nuclear posture.
At a time of heightened tension with the West, Russia has not been shy about reasserting its status as a nuclear power.
President Vladimir Putin pointedly noted last August that Russia was a leading nuclear power when he advised potential enemies: "It's best not to mess with us."
A report by the U.S. Congressional Research Service last year said Russia "seems to have increased its reliance on nuclear weapons in its national security concept."
Russia has embarked on a multibillion-dollar military modernization program and Russia's top general, Valery Gerasimov, said last week that support for Russia's strategic nuclear forces combined with improvements in conventional forces would ensure that the United States and NATO did not gain military superiority.
He said the Russian military would receive more than 50 new intercontinental nuclear missiles this year.
In December, Putin signed a new military doctrine, naming NATO expansion as a key risk. Before the new doctrine was agreed, there had been some calls from the military to restore to the doctrine a line about the right to a first nuclear strike.
Doctrine
This was not included in the new doctrine, however, which says Russia reserves the right to use nuclear weapons in response to a nuclear strike or a conventional attack that endangered the state's existence.
NATO's 2010 "strategic concept" says deterrence, "based on an appropriate mix of nuclear and conventional capabilities, remains a core element of our overall strategy."
Washington and Moscow have traded accusations that the other has violated a Cold War-era arms control agreement.
The United States accuses Moscow of violating the 1987 Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces treaty by testing a ground-launched cruise missile. Russia argues that Washington's use of drones and other intermediate-range arms amounts to a violation of the treaty.
A senior NATO official said Russia's Zapad exercise in 2013 was "supposed to be a counter-terrorism exercise but it involved the [simulated] use of nuclear weapons."
The Arms Control Association (ACA), a Washington-based advocacy group, estimates Russia has about 1,512 strategic, or long-range, nuclear warheads, a further 1,000 non-deployed strategic warheads and about 2,000 tactical nuclear warheads.