Chance (8 Dec 2024)
"Syria - Assad's Regime About To Fall; What Will Happen To Assad's Chemical Weapons?"


 
Hello John and Doves,
 
What a wicked mess in Syria!  The militant group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) has been moving quickly through Syria - taking cities - and Assad's regime is coming to an end.  The capital city of Damascus is in their sights.
 
"Behold, Damascus is no longer a city; it has become a heap of ruins.."  Isaiah 17:1
 
Syria has chemical weapons.  And Assad has a history of using them.  As he faces the fall of his government will he decide to use these?  Or will the HTS get a hold of them?  Israel sees these chemicals as a possible threat.
 
Assad Falling/Damascus The Goal:
 
"It has been another bad week for Russian President Vladimir Putin and the Kremlin.  Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's government collapsed faster than Afghanistan's had in August 2021.  Syrian rebels caught Putin's armed forces by surprise and swept through Aleppo, forcing the Russians to vacate several military bases."
 
"The fighting rages on, with Damascus clearly the goal...Assad was safely evacuated to Russia.  And with Assad's regime likely coming to an end, Russian influence in the region may be ending, too."

Putin's overseas empire is collapsing all at once — don't let up on him now
 
Russia's Response:
 
Tyler Durden on Zerohedge had an interesting article on December 4, 2024 - "Russian Ambassador to the UN Vassily Nebenzia issued a statement accusing Ukraine of stoking the armed insurgency which seeks to take over Syrian territory and threaten Assad."  At the UN on Tuesday, Nebenzia said "Ukrainian military instructors from the GUR are present..training HTS fighters for combat operations."  (HTS is the most powerful anti-Syrian, anti-Assad military faction in Syria)  He went on to say, "HTS has not only not concealed the fact that they are supported by Ukraine, but they are also openly flaunting this."  There are reports and images "of Ukrainian equipment and drones in the hands of the jihadists during the capture of Aleppo..."
 
"Nebenzia also turned his criticisms against UN  officials for being "unable to summon the courage to call a spade a spade and to condemn these terrorists attacks against Syria."   There are reports that the rebel groups in Syria have "received operational training from special forces from the Khimik group of Ukraine's Main Intelligence Directorate (HUR).  This group was "credited with the attack on a Russian military base on the southeastern outskirts of Aleppo on Sept 15 in which Russian attack drones and camouflaged improvised explosive devices were destroyed...."
 
"The suggestion of Ukrainian involvement could be seen as part of a broader trend of Kyiv's forces targeting Russian forces abroad..."
 
"Indeed reports of potential Ukrainian assistance to the jihadists based in Idlib have focused on drone usage, and additional damning evident has appeared of late in the NY Times...

Russia Accuses Ukraine Of Supporting AQ-Linked Fighters In Syria, & There Is Some Evidence | ZeroHedge
 
Affect On Russia:
 
NATO/US props up Ukraine - so we are seeing NATO trying to overthrow Assad - and to force Putin/Russia out of the Middle East.  So the West is in cahoots with terrorists.
 
"Two strategically-important Russia military facilities in Syria and Moscow's very presence in the Middle East are under serious threat from rapidly advancing insurgents, Russian war bloggers have warned.  With Russian military resources tied down in Ukraine...Russia's ability to influence the situation on the ground in Syria is far more limited than in 2015 when it intervened decisively to prop up Syrian President Bashar al-Assad."
 
"Rapid advances by the insurgents threaten to undermine Russia's geopolitical clout in the Middle East and its ability to project power in the region, across the Mediterranean and into Africa.  They also risk dealing an embarrassing setback to President Vladimir Putin, who casts Russia's intervention in Syria as an example of how Moscow can use force to shape events far away and compete with the West."  It seems that "the most immediate threat to the future" of Russia in Syria is the "Hmeimim airbase in Syria's Latakia province and to its naval facility at Tartous on the coast."
 
"The Tartous facility is Russia's only Mediterranean repair and replenishment hub and Moscow has used Syria as a staging post to fly its military contractors in and out of Africa."  Full evacuation of all of Russia's military equipment is not possible.
 
"The defeat of the Syrian side will also be our (Russia's) defeat."
Russian bases in Syria threatened by insurgent advance, say Moscow's war bloggers
 
How Will This Affect Israel?
 
"The IDF announced the following a situational assessment, the military would call up additional soldiers for defensive missions in the Golan Heights."  Adjacent to the Israel-Syria border.  And "hundreds of foreign fighters belonging to Iranian-backed militias from Afghanistan, Iran, and Pakistan are retreating to Al'Qaim, an Iraqi border town."
IDF calls soldiers to Golan Heights as rebels advance against Syria - The Jerusalem Post
 
"Jihadist groups battling the regime of Bashar Assad said on Saturday they captured the city of Auneitra in the Syrian Golan near the border with Israel."
 
"Meanwhile Israel announced the decision to send additional reinforcements to Israel's norther Golan Heights near the Syrian border.  Earlier, Israel's Defense Minister Israel Katz and the IDF Chief of Staff Herzl Halevi convened a situation assessment in light of the latest developments in Syria.  The IDF is "prepared for every scenario and determined to protect Israel's security interesting" a statement form the defense ministry read.'
Israel Beefs Up Syria Border As Jihadists Capture Quneitra - i24NEWS
So how is Ukraine able to help the HTS with training, drones, etc. when they are facing a fierce direct war with Russia?  
 
I read that Putin is blaming the U.S. also.  "Iran has blamed the United States and Ukraine for recent advances made by Syrian rebels in a surprise offensive against the Syrian government."  So Ukraine and the U.S. are supporting terrorism in Syria.
Iran Blames US and Ukraine for Syrian Rebels' Advances
 
State Department Warning - Damascus:
 
Meanwhile the State Department has issued a security alert warning of volatile and unpredictable situation in Syria.  US citizens urged to depart now while commercial options remain available in Damascus.
Security Alert – U.S. Department of State (December 6, 2024) - U.S. Embassy in Syria
 
Rebels Advancing Towards Damascus:
 
This article on December 7, 2024 said the Syrian rebels are advancing toward Damascus.  "Our operations continue to liberate the entire countryside of Damascus, and our eyes are focused on the capital, Damascus,. 
 
"The fall of Homs, if confirmed, would leave three of the country's five largest cities in thehands of the forces led by HTS, and no major cities between rebel forces and Damascus.  In less than two weeks, insurgents led by HTS have captured Aleppo in the north, as well as the central city of Hama, where government forces were forced out Thursday.  The collapse of government control in Daraa and the threat of Homs signals a growing vulnerability in Al-Assad's hold on power."
 
"Russia and Iran have long supported Assad, with Russia maintaining a military presence including the naval base at Tartus.  But both nations' influence has been weakened by broader regional tensions, including Israel's war in Gaza and clashed with Hezbollah in Labanon and Russia's yearslong war with Ukraine."
 
"It's pretty much the end game for Assad, if the rebels take Homs."...
 
"The observatory said Saturday that Syrian government forces had withdrawn from Israeli=controlled Golan Heights for the first time since Israel captures the area from Syria in the 1967 Mideast war and annexed it in 1981."

Syrian rebels claim control of Homs and advance toward Damascus
 
Syrian Chemical Weapons:
 
Syria is known to have chemical weapons.  Will these fall into the hands of the rebels now?  Or will Assad use these against the rebels?
 
"France's representative to the UN Security Council also called on Assad's regime to refrain from using these weapons."  Assad has a history of using chemicals on his people.  "In conditions where there is a sense as there is now, of existential danger, all bets are off:  whether it comes from Assad's inner circle, or a military official acting alone as the command structure breaks down...One can imagine someone trying something desperate."
Maybe "the regime will be undone before orders could be given to deploy chemical weapons."  President Trump "bombed Syria twice on April 7, 2017 and April 14, 2018 in retaliation for chemical attacks....it seems likely chemical weapons use in Syria on his watch would bring a military response...credible reports of renewed chemical weapons usage could potentially spark an international crisis."
 
"It's all more worrying given the tense US-Russia relations at the moment."  The Assad regime has been the perpetrator of chemical attacks before - chlorine and sarin gas.
 
"Israel is reportedly worried that some of the regime's chemicals could come into possession of such groups.   The Israelis have to prepare for all contingencies, the insurgency has already captured Al-Safira, home of one of the regime's crucial chemical weapons facilities.  So Jerusalem's concerns that HTS will take possession of some of Assad's chemical weapons and missiles are reasonable."
 
These chemicals are designed to be delivered by aircraft.  The HTS or others who capture these chemicals may not have the wherewithall to use them.  And they may not want to use them.  And Assad has hidden missile/rocket and chemical production facilities that HTS does not control..."at least not yet."
With Assad Losing Grip, Could Syria Suffer Another Chemical Attack?
 
Will we see Isaiah 17:1 fulfilled soon?
 
Pray for the peace of Jerusalem!
 
Maranatha!
 
Chance