As NATO in Brussels gave the
go-ahead Tuesday night, Dec. 4,
for the deployment of Patriot
surface-to-air missiles to protect
Turkey against Syrian missiles, debkafile’s
military and intelligence sources
reported that convoys of the
Syrian army’s chemical weapons
units headed out of Damascus under
cover of dark and turned north up
the road to Aleppo. Their
destination is not yet known.
The convoys were ferrying
self-propelled cannons for firing
shells loaded with poisonous sarin
gas.
Syrian President Bashar Assad had
evidently decided to ignore the
warnings President Barack
Obama issued Monday night that
there would be consequences if he
or anyone in Syria resorted to
chemical warfare and each
would be held accountable.
Our sources report that the Syrian ruler is aparently gambling dangerously on the Americans holding back from attacking the convoys as long as they deploy unconventional weapons, and would only react when they are used.
He is also taking advantage of the heavy winds, rain and cloud over this part of the eastern Mediterranean and counting on the weather to obstruct military operations against his chemical weapons units.
By the time the weather clears
some time Thursday, the units will
be in place in battle formation.
Meanwhile, bombing the convoys in
windy weather could cause the
deadly gas to spread out of
control in unpredictable
directions.
In Brussels, a NATO official
announced that the alliance had
agreed to augment Turkey’s
air-defense capabilities by
deploying Patriot missiles to
Turkey.
debkafile’s
military sources report that by
the time the missiles arrive, the
Syrian chemical weapons units will
almost certainly have reached
their pre-planned positions.
Furthermore, the Patriot air
defense systems are not designed
to counter artillery and would
therefore be unable to stop
shells loaded with poison gas.
debkafile
reported earlier Tuesday, Dec. 4.
US forces in the region, Israel,
Turkey and Jordan were all braced
Monday night, Dec. 3 for
action against Syria in case
Syrian President Bashar Assad
ordered his army’s chemical
warfare units to go into action
against rebel and civilian targets
his own country. None of the
Middle East capitals are talking
openly about this eventuality to
avoiding causing panic.
However, oblique references to the
peril and preparations for action
came from US officials during
Monday. White House spokesman Jay
Carney said: “We have an increased
concern about the possibility of
the regime taking the desperate
act of using its chemical
weapons.” Such a move “would
cross a red line for the United
States.”
Without going into specifics,
Carney added: “We think it is
important to prepare for all
scenarios. Contingency planning is
the responsible thing to do.”
US Secretary of State Hillary
Clinton in Prague was slightly
more specific: Syrian action on
chemical weapons remains a “red
line” for the Obama
administration, she said, and
“would prompt action from the
United States.”
Regarding contingencies, debkafile’s military sources report that the American force in Jordan and Jordanian units, who have been training for two months in tactics against Syrian chemical warfare units, are on a high state of preparedness. So, too, are the three special US command centers set up in Turkey, Jordan and Israel for coordinating such operations.
An American official “with knowledge of the situation” told Wired Magazine that “engineers working for the Assad regime in Syria have begun combining the two chemical precursors needed to weaponize sarin gas.”
Anchored opposite the Syrian shore is the USS Iwo Jima Amphibious Ready Group with 2,500 Marines. Facing it is the Russian Black Sea Fleet’s naval task force which too has hundreds of marines on its decks.
debkafile’s sources quote high-ranking officers in the Israel Defense Forces’ Northern Command as saying: “The coming hours and days are extremely critical for Syria. The situation on our northern front could blow up any moment.” They did not elaborate.
Later Monday, as the United
Nations regional humanitarian
coordinator for Syria, Radhouane
Nouicer announced the pullout of
nonessential international staff
“because of the security
situation,” Secretary Clinton flew
into Brussels from Prague to
discuss with NATO foreign
ministers the deployment of
Patriot anti-missile batteries at
10 points on the Turkish-Syrian
border - a massive number.
NATO sources took note of the
Syrian Foreign Ministry’s reply to
the spreading reports. He said
that the government “would not use
chemical weapons, if it had them,
against its own people under any
circumstances.” This statement
carried no promise about using
such weapons against external
forces, whether American, Turkish,
Jordanian or Israeli.
In Istanbul, meanwhile, Russian
President Vladimir Putin told
reporters at the end of his
one-day visit: “What we are
concerned about is Syria’s future.
We don’t want the same mistakes to
be repeated in the near future.”
He went on to say: “We shall
remember how some regimes
supported the militants in Libya
and how the situation ended with
the killing of the American
ambassador in Libya.”
This was meant by the Russian
president as a warning to the
US not to get involved in the
Syrian crisis as it did in Libya.
