HEAD COMMANDER OF ISRAELI ARMY
WARNS OF WW3 WITH WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION POSSIBLY
Stressing the long term, Commander
Eisenberg warned that the Arab Spring would likely
evolve into "a radical Islamic winter" raising the
potential for "total war in the Middle East" and the
possible use of weapons of mass destruction.
debkafile's military analysts point out that while Gen.
Eisenberg's outlook is substantially credible for the long
term, the events rushing forward in Libya, Syria and Egypt
and the uncertainty in Jordan are rapidly shrinking the
foreseeable time scale to weeks and making his words a
1. The "stable regimes" he referred to are a myth: In
Egypt the military rulers are not in control. The latest
US intelligence assessments, as the defense ministry's
adviser is no doubt aware, register dismay over the
discovery that the Muslim Brotherhood and Salafi extremist
groups are assured of a two-thirds majority in elections
for the presidency and parliament, for which the movement
for toppling Hosni Mubarak fought so hard. The military
rulers' only hope of staying in power is to stage a second
Egyptian revolution to suppress the drive for democracy.
For now, they are playing ball with the Islamic
extremists, a fact which Mr. Gilead has not revealed.
2. This pattern applies equally to Israel's security
backyard in Sinai, where debkafile's intelligence and
counter-terror sources report that the military rulers in
Cairo have abandoned any attempt to root out terrorists
despite their increasing use of this territory as a
Not a single smuggling tunnel carrying arms to Hamas in
the Gaza Strip has been destroyed, contrary to reports
appearing in the Israeli media.
For three weeks, Israel has maintained troops on high
alert on its southern border with Egyptian Sinai and kept
main highways closed to civilian traffic, since being
forewarned of a large Palestinian Jihad Islami terrorist
team from the Gaza Strip lying in wait to strike southern
Israel from the Egyptian border. Egyptian security forces
have not lifted a finger to interfere with their
The supply of arms to the Gaza Strip has since the
Egyptian revolution swelled to an unprecedented volume. It
is bringing to Hamas and other terrorist groups quantities
of surface missiles of greater range and power even than
the Grads, which last month hit targets at a distance of
30 kilometers, such as Beersheba; F-7 anti-air and
Nonetheless, Gilead referred to Israel's situation as
"never better" and lauded its deterrent capacity in the
3. He was just as smug about Israeli deterrence in "the
north," including the Lebanese border facing Hizballah.
4. In Syria, circumstances are so volatile that a war
situation could ignite in hours.
5. In Jordan, the political and security ground under the
throne is far from stable and while domestic unrest has
scarcely broken surface, it could erupt at any time.
6. While Libya was never part of the Arab front line
against Israel, its relevance to Israeli security is
growing. Since NATO launched its operation to unseat
Muammar Qaddafi in March, gunrunning from Libya is rife,
channeling large quantities of Libyan arms by smuggling
routes into the Gaza Strip and Sinai.
7. Iran is fast nearing nuclear weapon capability and
missiles capable of delivering nuclear warheads.
One of the greatest threats comes from the new regime the
US, Britain, France and NATO are preparing to anoint in
Tripoli. Since Qaddafi's departure, the Libyan capital has
fallen under the control of pro-Al Qaeda rebel elements
and extremist Salafis. Their Western sponsors have put
their trust in these extremists changing their spots and
embracing moderation and democracy. This illusion they are
liable to replicate in Cairo and Damascus. Israel would
then be beset at all hands by avowedly hostile Islamist
regimes whose ideology obliges them to wage jihad against
the Jewish state.
Commander Eisenberg tried to open Israeli eyes to the real
perils around the corner