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The Syrian army's air defenses fired Sept. 6 on an Israel air force
(IAF) warplane that entered Syrian airspace and "dropped ammunition,"
SANA, the official Syrian news agency, reported.

After midnight local time Sept. 6, the Israeli aircraft entered Syria
through the northern border, coming from the Mediterranean Sea and
heading toward the eastern region, SANA reported, citing an unidentified
government spokesman. Local residents said they heard the sound of five
or more planes above the Tal al-Abiad area on Syria's border with
Turkey, about 100 miles north of the Syrian city of Rakka. It is
unlikely that a single plane would be operating without at least one
wingman, and the area Syria claims the ammunition drop took place is
deep inside the country. The IAF plane or planes apparently avoided the
dense air defense network near the Israeli border and around the Syrian
capital, Damascus. This is the same area the IAF successfully penetrated
in the summer of 2006 to buzz Syrian President Bashar al Assad's summer
home in Latakia.

This incident unlikely was intended to be an Israeli attack against
Syria. While the situation is still unclear, several things could have
occurred. Like any good air force, the IAF has clear standard operating
procedures that dictate what a pilot does when his aircraft detects
enemy radar illuminating it, a missile launch or the pilot visually sees
anti-aircraft artillery fire. Under these procedures, the pilot would
immediately jettison external fuel tanks or extraneous ordnance in order
to facilitate maneuverability and save his aircraft. This is likely what
the Syrians are referring to when they accuse Israel of dropping
ammunition in the desert.

The IAF is the most competent air force in the region. Were it to
attempt to strike a target in Syria, that target more than likely would
have been hit. The Israel Defense Forces remains mum on the subject, and
no evidence of an external fuel tank with Israeli markings has yet been
presented.

Since the Israel-Hezbollah conflict in the summer of 2006, Israel has
conducted regular reconnaissance missions into Syria. These overflights
are embarrassing for Syria, since the country's air defense is
ill-equipped to respond in time. Though Israel and Syria have stepped up
rhetoric in recent months, accusing each other of provoking a military
conflict, this is largely posturing. Israel has no interest in
destabilizing the al Assad regime right now, and though the Syrians will
play up Israeli violations of Syrian airspace, they are nowhere near
capable or confident enough to start up a military confrontation with
the Jewish state.