http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1699956/posts

China Looks to the Middle East--Beijing's evolving bid to become a
superpower.
FrontPageMagazine.com ^ | September 12, 2006 | Frederick W. Stakelbeck Jr.

Posted on 09/12/2006 10:02:13 AM EDT by SJackson

In late July, Qiushi, a state-controlled publication and recognized
mouthpiece of the ruling Chinese communist party, released an essay
stating that China should strengthen its military to safeguard against
"instability and threats to national security." More important for
China's neighbors, the essay said, "At present, the political and
military environment on China's periphery is quite complex, and
unpredictable factors are clearly rising." The Pentagon's most recent
Quadrennial Defense Review, a military forecast delivered to Congress,
confirmed Beijing's change in thinking, saying, "China's military
modernization has taken on an "extra-regional" capability, which will
allow Beijing to project military power far beyond its immediate perimeter."

As China's needs have evolved, so too has its foreign policy. Although
still critical to Beijing, the country's foreign policy is no longer
based entirely on Taiwan reunification. Rather, Beijing's foreign policy
has become more complex and increasingly global in nature, driven
primarily by the country's insatiable need for energy to fuel its
economic and military expansion.

With a 2.3 million-man standing army, the world's largest, and a defense
budget estimated to be US $90 billion by most Pentagon experts, China is
rapidly positioning itself to address not only the unresolved issue of
Taiwan, but also energy security issues located far beyond its borders
in the Middle East. Today, 58% of China's oil imports come from the
Middle East region. By 2015, that figure will stand at 70%.

A recent report by the International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts that
by 2030, Chinese oil imports will equal imports by the U.S. Unless
dramatic changes are made by Beijing in the areas of conservation,
energy exploration and hybrid technologies, China's future will rest
beneath the sands of the Middle East.

Beijing recently increased its presence in energy-rich Iran, where a
joint agreement was announced in July to develop the Khustan province,
home to 90 percent of Iran's strategic oil reserves and a border
province with Iraq. In early August, Tehran announced a US$2.7 billion
oil refinery deal with China's state-controlled Sinopec that will help
the Tehran regime expand its rationed gasoline supply. China has also
increased its energy and defense relations with U.S. allies Saudi
Arabia, Kuwait and Egypt.

Make no mistake; Chinese President Hu Jintao and the country's communist
leadership would like nothing more than to divest themselves entirely
from Middle East energy and the uncomfortable dependence it creates. But
like the US and its Western allies, Beijing remains heavily dependent on
Middle East oil for its survival.

To address the issue of Middle East energy dependence, Beijing has
agreed to cooperate with countries in Africa, North America and South
America regarding production, exploration and pipeline projects. But in
many cases, hopes for a quick remedy have been dashed, with state-owned
energy conglomerates meeting organized resistance from local populations
who view China as an energy "exploiter," not energy "explorer."

Indeed, the likelihood of a U.S.-China confrontation in the Middle East
over energy is increasing. To meet this challenge, the Bush
administration should broaden the ongoing "China threat" discussion to
include more than just Taiwan. Previous statements by U.S. national
security experts dismissing China as merely a "regional threat unable to
project power beyond Asia," are shortsighted.

In addition, the belief that economic empowerment alone will eventually
force Beijing to embrace democratization, thus eliminating the growing
China threat, is based on wishful thinking, not fact. Ironically,
economic empowerment has had the opposite effect, giving Beijing a means
to project economic, political and military influence well beyond Asia.

While recent U.S. naval exercises to improve rapid response capabilities
in the Pacific are prudent at this time, they should be made in
conjunction with an upgrade of Middle East military forces. Of course,
selling this idea to the American public and Congress will be no easy
task. The development of a bifurcated China threat strategy focusing not
only on the Pacific, but also on other areas such as the Middle East
will require a revolution in U.S. foreign policy. Under such a scenario,
China would be identified not only as a regional threat, but a global
threat as well.

The Bush administration needs to revise its "Taiwan-centric" foreign
policy strategy and identify other emerging threats to U.S. national
security, namely, China's increasing presence and influence in the
volatile Middle East. An emerging China presents profound challenges for
the world. It is Washington's responsibility to recognize this changing
environment and prepare, otherwise, the result could be catastrophic for
future generations of Americans.
 

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Fred Stakelbeck is a Senior Asia Fellow with Washington-based Center for
Security Policy. He is an expert on the economic and national security
implications for the U.S. of China's emerging regional and global
strategic influence. Comments can be forwarded to
Frederick.Stakelbeck@verizon.net.