Dear friends:

Today the e-mails are predictably flying, pinning the blame for recent hurricanes on American foreign policy, agreeing with Osama Ben Laden and Muslim America haters.  Some are even boldly prophesying, "Thus saith the Lord."  One reader told me that such writers actually seem glad this is happening to their own country, indicating perhaps their own self-loathing.

Whatever the truth may be, the historical perspective below may be enlightening.

Jim
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FOX News:
(Some) hurricane experts explain that the spate of severe North Atlantic storms in recent years is part of a natural 25- to 30-year cycle. There was a wave of damaging hurricanes between 1935 and 1965, then a lull before the number of bad storms increased again around 1995.

From the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research
How many tropical systems occur on average each year? Globally, an average of around 85 tropical storms and 45 hurricanes/typhoons form per year. The tropical Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico -- the sources of U.S. hurricanes -- produce an average of 9 named storms per year, with around 6 of those becoming hurricanes and 2 of those becoming major hurricanes (ones with sustained surface winds exceeding 110 mph). The period since 1995 has been unusually active. Despite El Niño-linked reductions in hurricane activity during 1997, the years from 1995 to 2000 have been the most active six-year period on record. This includes the total number of named storms (79), hurricanes (49), and major hurricanes (23). However, only 3 of the 23 major hurricanes that developed in the Atlantic basin during this period reached the U.S. coastline (Opal, 1995; Fran, 1996; and Bret, 1999). Over the last century as a whole, a much higher fraction of major Atlantic hurricanes (73 out of 218) made landfall in the United States.

Which hurricanes have produced the worst U.S. damage in the last several years? Some of the greatest hurricane damage can occur from flooding after landfall, when the winds typically weaken but heavy rainfall may continue. In 1999, Hurricane Floyd's approach triggered the largest peacetime evacuation in U.S. history, but its worst impacts occurred well after landfall, particularly in North Carolina. Primarily through flooding, Floyd killed millions of animals and over 77 people, the largest human death toll related to a U.S. hurricane since 1972. In June 2001, the remnants of Hurricane Allison resulted in the most extensive flooding ever associated with a U.S. tropical storm. In the Houston metropolitan area, where more than 30 inches of rain were reported at several locations, damage estimates for Allison are near $2 billion, and at least 22 fatalities occurred.

From Science Daily:
BOULDER -- The number of Category 4 and 5 hurricanes worldwide has nearly doubled over the past 35 years, even though the total number of hurricanes has dropped since the 1990s, according to a study by researchers at the Georgia Institute of Technology and the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). The shift occurred as global sea surface temperatures have increased over the same period. The research appears in the September 16 issue of Science.

Peter Webster, professor at Georgia Tech's School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, along with NCAR's Greg Holland and Georgia Tech's Judith Curry and Hai-Ru Chang, studied the number, duration, and intensity of hurricanes (also known as typhoons or tropical cyclones) that have occurred worldwide from 1970 to 2004. The study was supported by the National Science Foundation (NSF), NCAR's primary sponsor.

"What we found was rather astonishing," said Webster. "In the 1970s, there was an average of about 10 Category 4 and 5 hurricanes per year globally. Since 1990, the number of Category 4 and 5 hurricanes has almost doubled, averaging 18 per year globally."

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Bramlett note: As to intensity, this last report from Science Daily would support the notion that the increasing number of Category 4 and 5 hurricanes since 1990 is part of the "birth pangs."  However, as to frequency, it does not, saying "even though the total number of hurricanes has dropped since the 1990s."  Birth pangs increase in both intensity and frequency.  Whichever, let us pray for God's mercy, which is always in order.