Written by Dr. Jack Wheeler
Friday, 14 October 2011
The next GOP presidential candidate debate is four days from now, Tuesday, October 18, in Vegas on CNN. It will focus primarily albeit not exclusively on foreign policy.
I've been asked by friends of a particular candidate to provide him with a private briefing on the most critical foreign policy issues
faces. What follows is not the usual HFR but a condensed summary of that briefing, which contains much of my Map of the Future talk at Rendezvous XI last weekend. America
. Putin is an ersatz macho-man, all hat and no karovi. Russia 's navy is made of rust. Russia Russia's ill-trained army of drunkards couldn't conquer . Russian male life expectancy is lower than that of Romania . Bangladesh Russiais a mafiacracy with a doomed economy dependent on oil & gas exports that fracking in Europe & the will make uncompetitive. Do svidanya. US
. No wives, no water, no banks - and a hyper-dangerous military. Much of China is uninhabited - deserts, mountains, and wastelands. Habitable China Chinais about the size of the USeast of the , with over a billion people squeezed into it. Mississippi Northern Chinais turning into a waterless dust bowl. Scores of millions of Chinese men will never get married due to the Chicom's idiotic one-child policy and resultant mass female infanticide.
100 million bachelors are explosively dangerous. Chinese state banks are insolvent after going on a post-2008 loan binge with debt and credit in
now (according to the IMF) above 200% of GDP. A sharp economic contraction (increasingly likely) plus all those angry unmarried men equals war, the history-honored scapegoat diversion of tyrants. China
The obvious Chicom choice for war would be
. But the Formosa Strait is 100 miles wide and Taiwan has no amphibious capacity. China Taiwanis on the northern rim of the South China Sea, rapidly becoming one of the most jeopardous flash points in the world. Bordered by Taiwan, the Philippines, Malaysia, Brunei, Indonesia, Singapore, Vietnam, and China, over 50% by value of the world's shipping traverses it - and Chinaclaims all of it, the entire South China Sea, as its own territorial waters.
This cannot stand.
Chinamust be publicly informed by the next president that the South China Seais international waters, period, there will be no discussion or negotiation. What is to be negotiated is the cooperative exploitation of what resources, such as oil, it may contain. No amount of Chicom bullying and saber-rattling will do any good. Every other country on the sea will join the USin this - and so will Indiaand . Japan
Further, the Chicoms need to grasp that any aggression of theirs in the
South China Seawill be naval only, and thus does nothing to occupy all their angry young bachelors. They need to go some place, a place with lots of water and lots of room for them, a place where the women prefer them to the local men who are drunks and beat up their wives, ideally a place once belonging to China but stolen by a foreign aggressor - so to get it back would give them a mission. Maybe even a wife.
There is such a place. It's called Siberia - specifically what
Chinacalled its Maritime Provincesand Russia, after it seized them in 1860, calls the Russian Far East.
It's only a matter of time, at most a decade or two, before
Beijingconverts most all of eastern Siberiainto Chinese Siberia. There is simply no way a dying can hold on to it. Might as well divert the Chicoms toward it and away from Russia Taiwanand the South China Sea.
. The Norks have no nukes. The half-kiloton yield in their tests means they failed to make weapons-grade plutonium. So they are no threat to us. They are a threat to South Korea with 11,000 artillery tubes aimed at the 17 million people of Greater Seoul. There is no need for American soldiers to be hostages to this. North Korea is a rich country with a powerful military capable of taking care of itself. We do not need to be there any longer. South Korea
. The world's largest democracy is prickly, but the only country in Asia capable of standing up to India . The Chicoms are building naval bases in China India's Indian Ocean neighbors such as Pakistan, Sri Lanka, and Burma, which they call their "String of Pearls" around 's neck. India is countering with a growing alliance with China's ancient neighbor enemy, India . Vietnam
The next president should build on President Bush's initiative for military and economic ties between the
USand . That could include a joint India-US naval base in Cam Ranh Bay in Vietnam on the South China Sea. The Vietnamese would welcome us. Among nations, there are no permanent enemies, only permanent interests. India
The Great Game of the 19th century was between the Russian and British Empires colliding in
Asia. The 21st century players of this game are China and India. It's in our interests to be on 's side. India
Pakistan/Afghanistan. Both are make-believe countries with no legitimate rationale for sovereignty. The key problem in both is
's "government within a government" spy agency, the ISI - Inter-Services Intelligence. It is radical hate-America jihadi Islamist. It created and is in the heroin business with the Taliban. The first necessary condition towards any solution in this region is its dismantlement. Pakistan
The other key problem is our State Department's anaphylactic allergy to regime and border changes. The best solution for
would be for it to cease to exist as presently constituted. Actually, the same for Afghanistan . Pakistan
The Baluchis of southern
Afghanistanand southwest Pakistanwant their own Baluchistan(they have a marvelous harbor and the biggest gold deposits in the world according to BHP Biliton). They'd be joined by the Baluchis of southeast Iranand most likely by the Sindhis of adjoining Sind in southern Pakistanwith the big city of . Karachi
The Tajiks of northern
do not want their lives run by Pushtuns. They'd much rather secede and join Afghanistan Tajikistan- which wants our help to stabilize and protect it from . The Pushtuns straddle the Af-Pak border. They dream of being united in a separate Pushtunistan. Russia Pakistan's ruling group, the Punjabis, would retain the Punjab.
But basically, as with the
, this no longer should be our problem to solve. Af-Pak should be Koreas India's problem to solve - Pak nukes, after all, are aimed at , not us. There is no real nation to build in India , and our troops have no purpose dying for it. Terrorist threats are the business of the CIA and spec-ops teams, not the Marines or Army. Afghanistan
Again, we need to ally with
and assist them in what is their problem, not ours, to solve. India
. This week we learned that Iran 's government planned an act of war against us in our own capital. It is hard to overestimate the number of problems in the world that would be solved with this government gone. And that's the solution: regime change. Apply a straightforward Reagan Doctrine strategy to overthrow Iran 's mullah regime by sponsoring - with money and weapons - insurrections throughout the country. Iran
Iran's 78 million, over 20 million are ethnic Azeri - almost three times the number of Azeris in next door, whom they would love to join in a Greater Azerbaijan. There are at least eight million Kurds, who would fight tooth and nail against their Azerbaijan oppressors if we gave them support. There are three million Ahwazi Arabs who populate Tehran Iran's oil patch, Kuhzestan, across the border from southern . Iraq
And of course there are the Persians themselves, some 33 million, whose mass street protests have been so brutally suppressed (and which the current president did not lift a finger or say a word to support).
A president determined to effect regime change in
would succeed quickly. The world's main state sponsor of Islamic terrorism would be no more. Iraq would be free to flourish, Syria would be quickly liberated, the threat to the Saudi and Gulf oil fields would be removed, and of course, Iran's nuclear program would be destroyed in the process (Israeli spec-ops would see to that). Iran
It's a long list of positives and few if any negatives. All it needs is a president with the courage of Ronald Reagan.
. The pre-1967 demarcations our current president demands Israel Israelreturn to were not borders - they were cease-fire lines where was able to stop the Arab invasions after declaring its independence in 1948. The Six-Day War recaptured Israel Israel's legitimate territory, and that territory, including Golan and Judea-Samaria (the so-called " West Bank") should remain so.
The Palestinians need to be told to STFU, that they no longer will be coddled and treated like spoiled children. They will recognize the state of
Israelas legitimate and Jewish, or they can move to the Sinai, where Egyptwill give them a since the Egyptians love Palestinians so much (the dirty secret is that the rest of the Arab world despises Palestinians and calls them rafida, Arabic for the N-word). Arabs and Euroweenies who object can shove their Nazi Anti-Semitism up their noses. Palestinian State
That's the way a pro-American pro-Israel president would deal with
and the Arabs. Then there's Israel . Turkey
Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan (air-doh-wan) is an Islamist megalomaniac fantasizing about recreating the Ottoman Caliphate. He is constantly threatening
Israel, pretending his high school navy is a match for 's NFL navy. Yet he has gutted the Turkish officer corps and filled it with incompetent stooges. Israel
Erdogan needs a
USpresident to explain to him that any duke-out between Turkeyand Israelwill result in his total humiliation, causing his overthrow and 's expulsion from NATO. Turkey
Islam. In addition to the above re:
Israeland , the next president should make a clear and public distinction between Islam the religion and Islamism the political ideology masquerading as a religion. That Islamism will no longer be accorded the respect due an actual religion but treated with the contempt due any fascist ideology such as Communism or Nazism. Iran
The next president should draw a distinct line between all variants of Islamism, such as Wahhabis, Deobandis, Khomeini Shias, and other forms of Jihadi and Sharia Islam, with peaceful and tolerant forms of Islam such as practiced by Sufis and Ismailis. It is with the latter that the future of Islam lies.
And for any Moslem in the
USwho agitates for Sharia law, he is welcome to do so - in a country that practices it, not in . As for Islamic terrorism, its practitioners should receive a drone strike -a policy of the current president that should be continued. America
The current president has, however, utterly failed to champion the rights and religious freedom of Christians in the Moslem world. A truly American foreign policy would do so.
Europe. It's Old Europe, now known as the Eurozone, serving as an object lesson of the scam of the welfare state versus New Europe, the liberated former colonies of the Soviet Unionwho learned the hard way the evils of socialism and the virtues of capitalism.
A new president would focus attention on the Baltics,
Poland, Czechia, Slovakia, Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria, Macedonia, Albania, Croatia, and . And he would politely educate the lands of Old Slovenia Europeon welfare state socialism as a religion of envy. is already figuring this out and is recovering thereby. Ireland
. As Radio Free Europe and Radio Liberty significantly helped bring freedom to Soviet Eastern Europe and the Mexico Soviet Union, the next president could institute a Radio Free Mexico (including satellite television and web sites) teaching free market and small business economics to Mexicans.
is the land of crony corrupt corporate fascist capitalism. As a result, most Mexicans live in medieval poverty while the richest man in the world is a Mexican - Carlos Slim - whose wealth was gained with state-protected monopolies. A true free market economy would enable Mexicans to become prosperous in their own country. Mexico
The only real solution to the
illegal alien problem is for those aliens to want to stay in or go back to their own country where they are free to prosper. US
In the meantime, the next president can use the National Guard, seriously armed, to secure our borders. And if drone strikes are so good at killing terrorists, they should be equally good at killing leaders of the Mexican drug cartels.
and the World. The next president's foreign policy should be based on the opposite of the current president. America
The current president is embarrassed to be an American. The next president should be bursting with pride to be an American. The current president has a compulsion to apologize for
America, a compulsion to appease those who envy and her historically unparalleled success. The next president should feel America has nothing whatever to apologize for, and could not care less about those who envy her. America
The next president, as opposed to the current one, should have no qualms in laughing at the lunacy of Warmism, the theory of human CO2 production causing global doom. Warmism is the Fascist Left's replacement for Marxism as a rationale for their seizure of power over our lives.
CO2 is a trace greenhouse gas (95% of the world's atmospheric greenhouse gases is water vapor), and our human production is a trace of that. One tenth of one percent of greenhouse gases are made by man. Humans do not cause global warming, period.
Explaining and rejecting this removes the obstacles to the world's most game-changing technology today - hydraulic fracturing or fracking of shale gas and shale oil deposits. Once the political shackles on this technology are removed,
will not only be fully energy independent, but a major energy exporter to the world. The crony capitalist scam of "renewable energy" will be dead -no more Solyndras, wind farm boondoggles, and ethanol subsidies. America
Russia's energy stranglehold on Europe will disappear and will be an energy exporter. Exposing the Fascist Left's hoax of Warmism and fully utilizing fracking technology will enable Israel and much of the world to live in an era of cheap and abundant energy - providing the material foundation for an ever-growing widespread prosperity. America
Lastly, the next president needs to explain that
really does need to be the world's policeman. As America Americaapologizes and retreats from the world, the wolves emerge from the forest, from Chinato . Only Iran can keep the world's wolves at bay. America
We do not need to nation-build. We do not need our soldiers in
. We do not need our soldiers in Afghanistan . We do not need our soldiers in South Korea Europe- Russian tanks (however many can still run) are not going to charge through the Fulda Gap. Once we effect regime change in Iran, we will not need our soldiers in . Iraq
We do need a strong, well-equipped and trained military, an army, an air force, and coast guard. But what we need most of all is an immensely strong navy, along with special forces - Marines, Rangers, SEALs, Delta, et al. Without that, the world's wolf packs run wild and unchecked.
The American Economy and Foreign Policy. A strong
obviously requires a strong and flourishing economy. This can only be achieved by getting the government out of the way of it. America
This cannot be done by a smooth-talking sophist who believes in Warmism (thus renewable energy crony capitalist scams), and whose health care program served as the model for the abomination of Obamacare.
This cannot be done by a Johnny One Note who can only talk about his tax reform plan that will take years to implement (if ever), and thus will do absolutely nothing to immediately revive the economy and create massive job growth.
This cannot be done by anyone pretending his business experience can be applied to running a government. Governments and their bureaucracies are the opposite of a for-profit business and cannot be run on business principles. Governments, the federal government in particular, can only be run on Constitutional principles, which means eliminating all federal activities, programs, agencies, and departments not enumeratedly authorized by the Constitution. (Not all at once but in an orderly manner -
wasn't torn down in a day.) Rome
This can be done only by someone with successful executive government experience who is committed to those Constitutional restrictions, most particularly those embodied in the 10th Amendment.
I wish that person well in the debate next Tuesday and in the months of campaigning to come. The 2012 GOP nomination campaign will be a test of endurance. It will not and mathematically cannot be won quickly.
30 states hold their GOP primaries before April, which are by new RNC rules proportional. A candidate who wins a majority or plurality of votes in these primaries only gets his proportion of the delegates - it's not winner-take-all. 55% of the votes, say, gets you 55% of the delegates, no more.
Further, because they are in violation of RNC rules for insisting on ridiculously early primaries, New Hampshire, Nevada, South Carolina, Florida, Arizona, and Michigan will be penalized with a loss of half of their delegates.
is a non-binding caucus so it's just a pr show. Iowa
The race will not be won until deep into April - and thus will be won by the best funded, best organized, and most determined never-give-up persistent candidate. For
's sake, let that candidate be also the most Constitutionally principled. America