The Omega Letter Intelligence Digest

Vol: 37 Issue: 29 - Friday, October 29, 2004

Dominoes Beginning to Tumble. . .
by Jack Kinsella

After seeing the video of Yasser Arafat being propped up on both sides by
supporters while dressed in sweats and a knit cap, the scene was so
surreal I intended to title today's OL 'Weekend at Bernie's'.

(If you've seen the movie, you'll get the pun. If not, it would take too
long to explain it.)

In any case, Britt Hume made the joke first, and then the New York Post
followed up with photos of Yasser and a clip from the movie, and headed
their column, "Weekend at Gasser's -- funnier than my idea, and more
accurate.

It doesn't look like the old Master Terrorist is long for this world --
but that isn't the first time I've said THAT, either.  Arafat has an
almost demonic capacity for survival -- anytime Death approaches him,
Arafat keeps him busy elsewhere -- but this time, Arafat might actually be
about to go to his reward.

The death of Yasser Arafat will create a welcome, albeit dangerous, void
in the Palestinian political establishment.

Welcome, because both sides know there is no hope for peace as long as
Arafat is alive.  Dangerous, because his death will trigger a power
struggle that could result in all-out civil war.

There is no established line of succession within the Palestinian
Authority or the PLO. Arafat has ruled in the manner of ancient Middle
Eastern kings -- he keeps the second tier of command at each other throats
in a constant power struggle which then fractures any unified effort to
challenge his power.

It works. The Palestinian Authority is widely recognized by the
Palestinian people as corrupt and incompetent.  The Palestinians know that
while they barely have enough to eat, they are paying for Sufi Arafat's
$100,000 per month apartment in Paris.  And that Yasser Arafat has somehow
become one of the richest men in the world.

Despite all that, he is still the figurehead of the Palestinian national
struggle, and as such, his power and popularity are tarnished, but
undiminished.

Under the Palestinian Authority's Basic Law, if Arafat dies, he will be
replaced by the speaker of the parliament for sixty days while new
elections are organized.

The Palestinians, under Yasser Arafat, have not been able to organize an
election in nearly a decade. The last Palestinian election was when Yasser
Arafat was given a two-year term in 1996)

The presidency of the Palestinian Authority is not Arafat's only grip on
power. He is also chairman of the Palestine Liberation Organization and
head of the Fatah faction, which dominates the PLO.

Each group has its own rules for succession, and there is likely to be
'competition' among several Arafat deputies for leadership. (Think of the
Kerry campaign -- only with guns and bombs, instead of distortions and
personal attacks).

Palestinian civil war, although probable, is not the only option. There is
a surprising amount of ambivalence in the Palestinian 'street' over
Arafat's impending death.

An editorial in Jordan's Al-Rai newspaper commented; "It is not in our
culture to wish someone's death. But politically speaking, the death [of
Yasser Arafat] is not a big loss for the Palestinian people."

Many Palestinians are relieved at the prospect of Arafat's death, as long
is it didn't come at Israeli hands. Former Arafat cabinet member Abdel
Jawad Saleh said, "He is and was sick," Saleh said. "There is no
possibility of blaming the Israelis for his death. . . There is a great
possibility of smooth succession if everyone abides by the law."

Even Hamas and Islamic Jihad have pledged in statements not to take
advantage of the power vacuum stemming from Arafat's illness, taking a
'wait and see' attitude for the short-term.

By and large, reports the Jerusalem Post, "The bottom line, reiterated
politicians, opposition members, Fatah members, and bystanders in
Ramallah, is that their future could scarcely be worse than their past."
 
 

Assessment:

The death of Yasser Arafat changes the entire complexion of the Middle
East 'peace process' and sets the stage for a new dynamic for the region.
The European Union has been trying to insinuate itself into the process,
hoping to replace the United States as the principle broker for regional
peace.

Following a meeting with PA Foreign Minister Nabil Sha'ath in Brussels
last Friday, the E.U.'s foreign policy chief, Javier Solana, said
"important events are going to take place in the coming weeks."

In an interview with the German magazine Der Spiegel the next day, Solana
also alluded to increased E.U. involvement in the peace process, adding
that Ariel Sharon's Gaza disengagement plan would not be sufficient to
bring peace.

"If Sharon believes that with a pullout from Gaza everything is already
done and that peace would come automatically, we won't support that," he
said. "That wouldn't be a dream, but a nightmare."

The EU is planning its own version of the 'road map' to peace -- one that
Israeli foreign ministry officials have already nicknamed the 'street
map'.

The EU's foreign ministers, increasingly frustrated with the situation in
the region and their lack of impact on events, gave EU foreign policy
chief Javier Solana a mandate earlier in the month to draw up a
recommended plan of action in the Middle East. He is slated to present it
to EU leaders on November 5.

The decision to initiate a "street map" came at a meeting of EU foreign
ministers two weeks ago in Luxembourg. At the end of that meeting, a
statement on the Mideast was issued that was deemed in Jerusalem as
unusually harsh towards Israel, even by EU standards.

The harsh statement and the mandate given to Solana to come up with a
plan, reflect deep European dissatisfaction with US leniency on the
settlement issue. The Europeans are frustrated they have no real leverage
to shape events, angry over Israel's operation in Gaza, and furious at
Sharon's determination to go through with the disengagement plan without
cooperating with the Palestinians.

Like the failed Oslo Accords, the original road map to peace idea came
from Europe.  It was proposed by Denmark while they held the six-month
rotating EU presidency.

Oslo failed because of Yasser Arafat.  The road map to peace hit a brick
wall, thanks to Yasser Arafat.  The EU's new 'street map' to peace has
Israeli officials snickering, but that is because Arafat isn't dead yet.

The Israelis are desperate for peace, and any agreement, Oslo, the road
map, or even a 'street map' that might lead there is worth considering.

Ironically, after Arafat, the second biggest stumbling-block to peace is
the United States of America.

Neither Israel nor the US would negotiate with Arafat, but, until Arafat's
illness, the EU was planning a diplomatic blitz to end Arafat's Ramallah
isolation. The EU has credibility with the Palestinians.  The US does not.

Let's step back and look at the wider picture for a moment. This is one of
those historical crossroads in-the-making.

Since the turn of the 21st century, US credibility has been steadily
declining. At the same time, European power and influence has been
expanding to fill the void. The UN is on the verge of implosion. The
Europeans are actively lobbying to replace the US as the principle peace
broker between Israel and her enemies.

It looks like Arafat may die and clear the way for a new,
European-sponsored peace effort, built on the rubble of the failed
seven-year Oslo Agreement.

While all this is going on in the Middle East, America is embroiled in its
own cold civil war that has fractured the country and hamstrung the
government.

The Russians, French, Germans and Chinese, together with the UN, took
advantage of Washington's political distractions to plunder Iraq's
Oil-for-Food account, creating a five-party alliance of thieves whose
fondest dream would be to see somebody gun down the American sheriff that
broke up their conspiracy.

Among the other plunderers of Iraq, according to the Duelfer report and
documents released by the Iraqi government, was the Vatican.  The current
Pope, John Paul II, like Yasser Arafat, is at death's door.

New reports say the Russians are continuing to develop their alliances
with the Muslim Middle East, despite their own war against Islamic
terrorists in Chechnya.

And through it all, the most important city in the world, the one that is
the obsession of the EU, UN, Russians, French, the Islamic world and the
United States, is, was, and now more than ever, is the tiny city of
Jerusalem.

"And He spake to them a parable; Behold the fig tree, and all the trees;
When they now shoot forth, ye see and know of your own selves that summer
is now nigh at hand. So likewise ye, when ye see these things come to
pass, know ye that the kingdom of God is nigh at hand."

"Verily I say unto you, This generation shall not pass away, till ALL be
fulfilled." (Luke 21:29-32)

Taking into consideration the wider picture, there is not that much left
to do on this side of the Rapture.

"And when these things BEGIN TO COME TO PASS, then look up, and lift up
your heads; for your redemption draweth nigh." (Luke 21:28)