K.S. Rajan (30
Nov 2011)
"By Stan Goodenough"
All the while, here in the Middle East, we have been made
freshly aware of how swiftly we could slide into a massive –
even non-conventional – war against Iran and its proxies around
us. We have been wondering what the coming hours and days could
bring – and we wonder how long we’ll be left wondering.
Right now, even as I type these words, Israel’s leaders could be
ordering a military strike on the Iranian nuclear program.
The warplanes flying high over Jerusalem could be en route to
Natanz, Qom, Bushehr, Parchin.
Or they could be patrolling, on high alert against Iranian
retaliation, as some other form of Israeli attack is carried
out.
Then again, with Syria’s Bashar el-Assad trapped in a corner and
headed for a Gaddafi-style demise, some believe it may be him
who unleashes the first missile salvo against Israel. He has
nothing to lose, and the ultimate Arab prize to gain:
championship in the effort to erase Israel.
The temperature began climbing after October 28, when an Israeli
journalist reported plans by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu
and Defense Minister Ehud Barak to hit the Iranian nuclear
program.
Poll results published on November 3 showed that 80 percent of
Israelis believed a strike on Iran would lead to war with Hamas
and Hizballah.
On November 8, Barak told the press that no option was off the
table in dealing with the Iranian threat. He set the anticipated
Israeli casualty figures from Iranian retaliation as “low as
500.”
The mercury soared later the same day with the leaking of an
International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) report (set for
official publication November 9) that Tehran has indeed been
developing components for a nuclear warhead – something the
Iranians have consistently denied.
On November 12 an enormous explosion killed an Iranian
missile-testing chief, and Iran blamed the Israeli Mossad.
These were the headlines over the ensuing days:
Hizballah chief warns of regional war if
Iran, Syria attacked (Nov 16)
US Defense Secretary: Iran strike will hurt
world economy (Nov 17)
Israel beware – China arms Hizballah (Nov 17)
Iran nuclear issue is ‘deep concern’ – world
powers (Nov 17)
Israel tests ballistic missile system (Nov
17)
Israel; time running out to stop a nuclear
Iran (Nov 19)
‘If Assad falls, Hizballah will take Beirut’
(Nov 22)
Blast rocks Hizballah stronghold in south
Lebanon (Nov 23)
Israel ready for war with Hizballah as if it
will happen in a week: Israeli official (Nov 24)
Iran: We’ve arrested 12 CIA spies (Nov 24)
IDF commander: Lebanese army will fight with
Hizballah against Israel in next conflict (Nov 25)
Iran general threatens retaliation against
Israel nuclear sites (Nov 25)
By Stan Goodenough
Iran to hit Turkey if nuclear program
targeted by Israel, US, general says (Nov 26)
Iran, Hizballah, preparing for ‘final
confrontation’ with US and allies (Nov 27)
Egyptian turmoil may prompt Israel to strike
Gaza (Nov 27)
“Iranian parliament expels UK ambassador (Nov
28)
Iran: We’ll fire 150,000 missiles at Israel
if attacked. (Nov 28)
Nearly forgotten in this latest rush of rhetoric has been the
burgeoning belligerence from Turkey, specifically from its prime
minster, Recep Erdogan, who Syria this week accused of being set
on restoring his country to the imagined once glorious days of
the Ottoman Empire.
And in Egypt today, voting has begun in the first post-Mubarak
election – which itself was launched following days of rioting
in Tahrir Square during which the “Arab Spring” protestors vowed
to “kill all the Jews.”
This is Israel’s neighborhood, and this is the climate we are
living in.
How do we differentiate between looming and long-term danger?
On November 13, Ha’aretz ran a report quoting Prime Minister
Benjamin Netanyahu as saying that Iran is closer to a nuclear
bomb that people think. Something has to be done.
“Is Bibi serious?” This question came at me while I was guiding
a busload of American believers around the Galilee. Was the
Israeli leader being truthful in his expressed belief that his
nation could soon be facing a nuclear-armed Iran?
If Netanyahu was being serious, then the next question follows
hard on the heels of the first: How long can Israel wait,
leaving it up to the international community and, particularly,
the United States, to resolutely confront the Iranians?
How long DARE Israel wait?
Some of our friends are stockpiling for war. But overall here in
the land there is no real sense of an imminent explosion.
As the rumors swirl around us, we pray, we watch, and we wait