http://www.kuwaittimes.net/today/analysis_s2.phpAbu Ammar or Chaos: A Study in Post-Arafat Palestine
Dr Sami Moubayed: The situation in Palestine, along with the health of Yasser Arafat, has sent vibrant shock waves throughout the Arab World. You can almost smell the blood in Palestine, and feel the turmoil and instability in the Palestinian Authority (PA) if Arafat departs the scene. For the first time since the intifada broke out in 2000, we as Arabs are worried more so about inter-Palestinian strife, than Palestinian-Israeli violence. Of course, at the end of the day, all trouble in the Occupied Territories can be attributed, in one way or another, to Ariel Sharon, and if chaos prevails in Palestine, then it is due to Sharon's brutal measures since 2000, and his planned destruction of the PA, more so than Yasser Arafat's inability to properly rule Palestine. If Arafat dies, again, it is due to Sharon's madness, and George W Bush's indifference. Since the Oslo Accords in 1993, we have been promised by everyone, Abu Ammar and the late Ahmad Yassin, that civil war among the Palestinians was a red line that nobody could cross. These promises, sadly, are evaporating into thin air today. The latest events over the last summer prove the exact opposite: the assassination attempt at Nabil Amro, the ex-Minister of Information, carried out by Palestinians, the kidnapping of Ghazi Al-Gibali, the chief of police in Gaza, the kidnapping of Sami Abu Salim, the mayor of Dayr Al-Balah, the kidnapping of Fadl Al-Shuli, the deputy mayor of Nablus, the kidnapping of four French citizens in Khan Yunis, the kidnapping of Khalid Abu Al-Ula, an official in Arafat's PA, all topped by the shaky cabinet of Prime Minister Ahmad Quraia, along with resignation of PA Intelligence Commander Amin Al-Hindi, and Commander of Preventative Security, Rashid Abu Shibak. On July 24, 2004, armed militants stormed and burned down police headquarters in Al-Zuwayda village in Gaza, while armed men occupied the governorate of Khan Yunis. Enjoying all this confusion is Ariel Sharon and his press, which has been gloating for the past week with one unified headline, "Chaos in the Palestinian Territories!" Since Arafat left for France last week, the Israeli dailies are also beaming: "Final trip to the Grave!" The one person who has brilliantly risen out of the ashes, surprising all observers, is the ever-present Yasser Arafat. The bedridden Abu Ammar emerged from the storm in Palestine, victorious as ever, raising a million questions and answers on how the crisis will be settled, and where Palestine is headed, both under his leadership, and once he is gone. If so much chaos can take place during his lifetime, it would be a nightmare to imagine the Occupied Territories once he is gone. If anything, the crisis shows one thing: how weak the Palestinians are, and how strong Yasser Arafat really is. For some months now, Arafat has been accused of failing back on his duties as president; as being unable and unwilling to fight corruption, and bring order and stability to the Palestinian Territories because that would mean reforms, leading to a democratic Palestine from which he would be absent from power. Once again, Arafat acted with wisdom and worked slowly to regain confidence of the Palestinian street, investing in the chaos being created by Israel. Arafat knew that in times of war, everyone will rally around his/her leader. He appointed officials in senior posts, like Ghazi Al-Gibali and Musa Arafat, knowing perfectly well that they were vetoed by the people for their corruption, yet acceptable and welcomed by Israel and the United States. This scored him points with Washington and Tel Aviv, yet infuriated the mass public. When people rioted in protest, Arafat did not put down the disturbances (as customarily done in the past), but in fact encouraged them, then showed that he had "given into" public pressure by retiring the same men he had appointed earlier, and replacing them with officials more acceptable to the masses. At the end of the day, he projected the image of a sincere leader who obeyed what his people dictated, always abiding to Palestinian nationalism. He turned down the resignation of Ahmad Quraia, refusing to grant him any real powers, again angering his own people, then "gave-in" to pressure from the Palestinian street, the USA, and the EU, which threatened to re-calculate its alliance with Arafat if he abandoned the reformer Abu Alaa. By hanging on to Abu Alaa, then empowering him with more authority, Arafat not only appeared to be more humble by democratizing Palestine (at his own expense) but also, came across as a cooperative reformer willing to go to great lengths to appease the West and his subjects. Again, he reverted his earlier decision, accepting, in a dramatic move, to transfer some of his presidential powers to the prime minister, giving him real authority, and transferring the responsibilities of internal security (previously under Arafat's direct control), to the Ministry of Interior. This would achieve two aims: appease the street, and free him from the burden of maintaining law and order. Arafat faces a tremendous challenge in bringing law and order to Palestine. By leaving to France and appointing nobody to deputize in his absence, he has not made the situation any easier for ex-Premier Mahmud Abbas and current Prime Minister Ahmad Qurai. For example, in Khan Yunis, Rafah, and Gaza City, entire neighborhoods are ruled by street gangs and his PA is totally absent. Mohammad Dahlan, a former protégé of the president and ex-minister of security affairs under Abu Mazen, is not making things any easier for the President. He is believed by many to have his eyes set on the presidency in post-Arafat Palestine. Dahlan is leading the secular opposition to Arafat (as opposed to the Islamic one of Hamas and Islamic Jihad), having established a wide power base for himself in Khan Yunis, dubbed "the independent republic of Dahlan." He is believed to be responsible for the resignation, en mass, of 400 members of Arafat's Fateh in February 2004, to protest the corruption in the PA, an act that greatly embarrassed the President. Then, Dahlan, leading an army of thugs, had his men assault General Ghazi Al-Jibali, Arafat's police chief of Gaza, and kill one of his officers. In February 2004, Ibrahim Abu Naja, another Arafat loyalist, was beaten at his office in Dahlan's native Khan Yunis. Recently, however, Arafat has tried to reconcile with Dahlan, under the urging of President Husni Mubarak. On February 19, 2004 he had lunch with Dahlan at his destroyed office in Ramallah, and six days later, Arafat made a gesture of goodwill towards Dahlan by convening and chairing Fatah's Revolutionary Council, which has not met in 30 years, where he. acknowledged wide-scale corruption, saying that it must be combated immediately, effectively echoing what Dahlan has been saying since 2003. In July 2004, Dahlan made his own gesture towards Arafat, publicly pledging his loyalty to him in an interview with the London based daily Al-Hayat. Last Friday, Dahlan went to France with Arafat, to discuss security affairs, and also, to show solidarity with the Palestinian President. To Be Continued Dr Sami Moubayed is a Syrian political analyst. He is the author of "Damascus Between Democracy and Dictatorship 1949-1958" (Maryland 2000) and "Drunk Days in the Middle East: Articles on Palestinian Politics" (forthcoming Maryland 2005).