Prospects:
Even if  there  is  one  titular  head  of  the  Palestinian movement ,  it is  extremely unlikely  that a  single person will in fact act as leader, at least for some years to come. If there is a collective leadership, it will include leaders of very  different viewpoints  who will be unlikely to agree to any  new or different direction. With no single leader or chain of  command, it is going to be hard for anyone to make policy or  take actions  such  as  ending  the  violence  or engaging in serious negotiations.

 

Given the  intense rivalry  for power, leaders are likely to avoid  a   dangerous  moderation.  Offering  compromises  or concessions, acting  too  friendly  to  the  United  States, countering terrorism,  and seeking  to quiet  incitement are likely to  bring  down  the  wrath  of  numerous  well-armed militants.

 

In a  sense, Arafat  has poisoned  the atmosphere to such an extent that  it might take years to clean it up. Arafat made moderation synonymous  with treason, established the cult of total  victory,   extolled  the   gloriousness  of  violence (including terrorism  and  suicide  bombing),  and  promoted passionate hatred  of Israel.  Mosques, the  media, and  the educational system  has engrained these attitudes even among the youngest  children.  These  are  difficult  legacies  to reverse.

 

Some leaders  understand the  difficult situation into which Arafat has led the Palestinians. They know that a compromise peace  is   the  only  way  out  of  the  current  dead-end. Unfortunately, there  are even more activists who believe in revolution until  victory  and  believe  that  the  struggle should go on until Israel is destroyed, or at least defeated enough to  make massive unilateral concessions. Still others are opportunists and careerists  who will go along with the consensus--which  is  still  an  extremely  radical  one – to preserve their privileges.

 

Nevertheless, the  chances of  a Palestinian  civil war  are very low. In part this is because it is hard to have a civil war when there are so many sides. No one has enough power to believe he  can win.  If anyone tries to take over by force, all the other groups will align against them. More likely is a quiet  anarchy in  which different groups operate on their own and ignore instructions from the top.

 

The Palestinian  movement could  very well disintegrate to a large extent  on a  number of  lines:  between  Palestinians inside and  outside the  West Bank/Gaza  Strip  area;  among Fatah factions;  between  the  West  Bank  and  Gaza  Strip; between different towns; between nationalists and Islamists, and so on.

 

The most likely outcome is that no one will be authorized to make decisions.  With Arafat  in power there was no one with whom Israel or the United States could talk who would make a deal or  implement his  promises.  After  Arafat,  at  least initially, there  will literally be no one to talk to who is in charge.  But at  least-if one wants to find an optimistic note – there will  be  the  possibility  of  change  for  the better, a situation which does not now and never has existed with the Palestinian leadership.

 

Palestinians  are  disorganized,  divided,  and – insofar  as moderation  is   concerned--intimidated.  It  will  be  very difficult to  establish a  single  leader  or  authoritative leadership capable of taking any tough decision. The idea of a new  Palestinian leadership negotiating in the near future and making  compromises over territory, ending the conflict, Jerusalem, and  the return  of refugees  is  thus  extremely unlikely.

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