Ohio Marriage Amendment "worth 50,000 to 100,000 votes" for President Bush
The Wall Street Journal (registration required) ^ | 11/01/04 | As quoted by Fred Barnes

This is an excerpt from Fred Barnes' article today. The key passage quotes Prof. Green of the University of Akron, a man who knows his stuff:

Democratic strategists claim the gay marriage issue won't boost Mr. Bush. Kerry pollster Mark Mellman said in the three toss-up states where it's on the ballot -- Ohio, Michigan, Oregon -- Mr. Kerry is winning. Belying Mr. Mellman, Democrats fought vigorously to keep the issue off the ballot out of fear it would indeed aid Mr. Bush. In socially conservative Midwest states like Iowa, Wisconsin and Minnesota, where it's not being voted on, the issue may appeal to conservative Catholics and Lutherans. "Abortion and the gay marriage issue will play well there," said GOP consultant Frank Luntz.

But Ohio is the key. It's a state Mr. Kerry must win. Republican leaders -- Gov. Bob Taft and Sens. George Voinovich and Mike Dewine -- opposed the referendum, but grass roots social conservatives overwhelmed them to get it on the ballot. The most recent poll showed the referendum passing by a 3-to-2 margin. Prof. John Green of the University of Akron, an expert on the voting habits of religious conservatives, said it has strong support "among Democratic-leaning groups, black Protestants and Catholics. It will generate additional votes for Bush." How many? Probably 50,000 to 100,000, Mr. Green said, perhaps the balance in a close election.

(Excerpt) Read more at online.wsj.com ...