DEBKAfile Special Report

From the moment on Thursday, November 4, when a French official stood
outside Percy military hospital and solemnly declared "Mr. Arafat is not
dead," preparations rushed forward for his funeral. The immediate outcome
was a split that rent the Palestinian leadership and Arafat?s associates
into two camps.

Jihad Islami, Hamas, Al Aqsa Martyrs Brigades and the other Palestinian
organizations with a vested interest in continuing their campaign of
terror against Israel were quick to plant a concocted rumor in the
Palestinian street and mosques that Israel had slowly poisoned Arafat.
This stratagem was intended to fan the flames of anti-Israeli violence and
discredit moderate Palestinian leaders with thoughts of dialogue or peace
or even the ceasefire which Mahmoud Abbas is trying to broker. It was
meant to make the Palestinians angry enough to refuse any accommodation
with the Jewish state and insist on stepping up its war. This would tilt
the succession struggle against the moderates and for the champions of
continuing confrontation.

The failure of the Percy hospital's physicians to publicly diagnose the
ailment that brought Arafat to their institution, contrary to custom for
public figures - gave wings to all kinds of vicious rumors about his
illness. It enabled the Palestinian extremist factions to blacken Israel
to gain an edge in round one of their fight for the succession.

DEBKA-Net-Weekly's sources in Ramallah and Paris describe the first camp
as consisting of his wife, Suha Arafat, and personal aide Ramzi Khouri,
who share a longstanding bond as members of the Christian faith, joined by
Arafat's nephew Nasser al-Kidwa, the Palestinian UN observer, and Dr. Amar
Daka, his personal physician.

Only this foursome was allowed near his bed. They will decide when to
disconnect the life support system and declare Yasser Arafat dead. By
French law, the final word rests with his wife, Suha Arafat. She is
buffeted by contrasting pressures from Palestinian leaders as well as
considerations of her own financial future. The funeral will be arranged
by Palestinian officials in consultation with the Israeli government.

After Arafat was hospitalized in Paris, members of the second camp, the
confidential aides who accompanied him to Paris, were thrust aside and not
permitted to visit him - among them, Mohammed Rashid, probably the only
person privy to his personal financial secrets, his bureau chief,
spokesman constant shadow Nabil Abu Rodeina, and Mohammed Dahlan, the
protégé- turned-rival and former head of Palestinian "security" services
in the Gaza Strip.

Once the funeral is out of the way, this second group will step into the
leadership contest.

In Ramallah, Palestinian leaders sat in around-the clock conclave in a
desperate attempt to make the transition orderly and agree on the funeral
arrangements. To bridge the period of uncertainty, they assigned prime
minister Ahmed Qureia with provisional responsibility for security and
finances in the Palestinian Authority, and former prime minister Mahmoud
Abbas the chair of the Palestinian Liberation Organization's Executive
Committee.

Israel has demanded that a burial with the trappings of a state funeral
must take place in the Gaza Strip. The Palestinians, with some support
from their European friends, are insisting on his burial in Abu Dis, the
Palestinian suburb of Jerusalem that has a view of Temple Mount. Arafat
had a building constructed there to house a future Palestinian parliament.

It stands empty and could serve as a tomb. In Gaza, the funeral procession
would follow the route taken by Arafat a decade ago on his arrival there
from Tunis in the wake of the Oslo peace accords. Qureia will be in Gaza
Saturday to discuss funeral arrangements with the local heads of
organizations.

Both venues pose colossal security problems. Who will control the hordes
of Palestinians on the move between the West Bank and Gaza Strip to attend
the funeral? Who will guarantee the safety of the VIPs coming to the
funeral - Western and Arab?

It has been suggested in some capitals, including Washington, that the
funeral and the presence of international figures will provide an
opportunity for discreet diplomacy. Americans officials may come to show
their respect for the Palestinian people and mark the end of the Arafat
era. They will advise the Palestinians that, if they can consign their
dead leader's campaign of terror to the past, they will be granted a new
beginning on the basis of the revived Middle East roadmap to peace. The
clock may then be turned back to June 2003, when President George W. Bush
endorsed the roadmap at the Sharm el Sheikh Arab summit and the Aqaba
conference in the presence of Jordan's King Abdullah, Israeli prime
minister Ariel Sharon and Mahmoud Abbas, then Palestinian prime minister.

But there is no sign that Palestinian terror assaults on Israel will be
held in abeyance even for the interim. As long as they are in office, the
two veteran Palestinian politicos may claim they are trying hard to stem
the bloodshed and revive peace diplomacy - but neither commands the
popular support, military strength or financial clout to make good on
either intention.

In contrast, the forces dedicated to continuing Arafat's path of terror -
Fatah-Tanzim, al Aqsa Martyrs' Brigades, Hamas, Jihad Islami, the Popular
Front-PFLP, the Popular Resistance Committees which rule the southern part
of the Gaza Strip - command a flock of many thousands of terrorists and
suicide bombers.

Arafat structured the Palestinian terrorist machine around an operational
nucleus of personnel drawn from the Palestinian Authority's security
services. These officers wear two hats and draw two paychecks. It is a
tightly woven fabric that has proven impossible to unravel. Qureia and
Abbas may genuinely try to institute reforms by taking charge of the
security services. But there is no longer any way to separate out the
security officers from the terrorist networks. They will be thwarted by
opponents commanding a well-oiled machine of terror and access to funding
sources independent of the Palestinian Authority - Syria, Iran and the
Lebanese Hizballah. None of them will hold back funds from radical
Palestinian elements fighting to step into Arafat's shoes.

It is therefore more than likely that Qureia and Abbas will decide not to
risk their necks by standing up to Arafat's terrorist protégés and their
external backers - or attempt to reach meaningful negotiations. They will
prefer to turn a blind eye and survive. This eventuality will bring the
Israel-Palestinian conflict back to the post-Aqaba summit impasse when
Abbas did not lift a finger to stem Palestinian terror and the roadmap was
allowed to gather dust.

Israel is braced for a highly volatile post-Arafat period marked by
accelerated terrorist assaults by the Palestinian factions struggling to
fill his place and grab his fortune. They will vie for control by outdoing
one another in attacks on Israel. The Israeli high command has prepared
contingency plans for this period under the codename "New Page." Clearly,
no one can tell at this point where the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is
going from here or whether the new page will be more or less
blood-spattered than the ones written by Yasser Arafat.