The Omega Letter Intelligence Digest

Vol: 38 Issue: 13 - Saturday, November 13, 2004

Tehran Reneges on Nuke Deal - Already
by Jack Kinsella

A tentative deal committing Iran to suspend nuclear activities is already
falling apart as EU diplomats are saying Tehran has already reneged on a
deal reached only days ago.

The ever-optimistic IAEA nonetheless delayed presenting its report to the
Security Council on Iran's nuclear activities.  Mohammed el Baradei says
he is delaying his report for two reasons, each of which cancels out the
other.

el-Baradei said the delay was meant to give both sides 'more time' to
solve the dispute.  Besides, argues el-Baradei, he needs time to include
Iran's 'committment'  (the one they reneged on already) into his report.

In other words, Iran's 'committment' will be taken at face value by the
IAEA, whether they believe Iran intends to keep it or not.

So goes the EU's farcical effort to buy  promises from the Islamic
Republic that it won't use its nuclear program to build bombs by offering
to GIVE them the nuclear material they need to build bombs.

After ending talks in Paris with Iranian envoys last weekend, European
diplomats said there was tentative agreement by Tehran to suspend uranium
enrichment - which can be used to make nuclear arms - and all related
activities.

But diplomats told The Associated Press on Friday that Iranian officials
had presented British, French and German envoys in Tehran with a new
version of the agreement that said the deal allows Iran to process uranium
into a precursor of uranium hexafluoride, the gas introduced into
centrifuges for enrichment.

"If the Europeans show wisdom and don't make excessive demands, I think
the way is open and we can reach an agreement," said former Iranian
President Hashemi Rafsanjani, now a senior parliamentary official. "If
they resist, they will give in one day but at a higher price."

Can this be more clear?  "Either let us do what we want without
interference, or the first place we will use our weapons will be against
you."

The only purpose FOR the agreement was to prevent Iran from processing
uranium.  In typical diplomatic fashion,  Iran denied it was reneging on
the deal, even as it was in the PROCESS of reneging on the deal.  And, in
typical diplomatic fashion, EU/UN diplomats agreed to 'study' Iran's
response, giving Iran more time to continue its bombmaking efforts.

The IAEA unanimously passed a resolution in September demanding Iran
freeze all work on uranium enrichment and related activities.

The IAEA is due to issue its judgment on Iran's compliance to the Security
Council by November 25.  It is expected to read much like the IAEA reports
on Iraq.  It will confirm that Tehran has been 'experimenting with all
phases of the nuclear fuel cycle but that there is still no concrete
evidence of a link to weapons.'

As in Iraq, Tehran has not yet offered the UN a 'smoking gun'.   However,
in the case of a nuclear weapon, the 'smoking gun' would take the form of
a mushroom cloud.

Assessment:

The ability to enrich uranium is not in itself proof of a nuclear weapons
program, but it would put Tehran within months, or even weeks, of being
able to build a bomb.

But the case against Iran is unlikely to satisfy Russia, which has
billions of dollars invested in helping Iran develop nuclear generating
plants that the mad mullahs could use to make enough material for dozens
of bombs per year.

The United States plans to take Iran to the Security Council and demand
sanctions -- but both China and Russia have hinted they will veto any such
resolution.

So its deja vu all over again, to quote the great Yogi Berra.  The Bush
administration will once again sit at the Security Council to question the
UN's continued relevancy.  Neither the United States or Israel are ready
to wait until AFTER the UN has its 'smoking gun', since the smoke is
likely be rising over Israel.

el-Baradei is already trotting out Iraq as proof that the UN approach is
the right one.  In an address delivered to Stanford University's Center
for International Security and Cooperation, el-Baradei outlined his two
main points that favor continuing fruitless negotiations.

"The first point to be made is that the inspections were working," he
said.   He said the Iraq Survey Group report confirmed the IAEA's
conclusion that Iraq had 'shut down' its nuclear program in the face of UN
inspections.

What el-Baradei left out was the ISG's conclusion that Saddam would have
resumed his program the second UN sanctions were lifted.   Saddam would
still be in power,  UN inspectors withdrawn, and Iraq would revert back to
what it was before the first Gulf War.

Meaning the invasion of Iraq would not have been avoided, merely postponed
until he was strong enough to make it a major war.

el-Baradei babbled on; "The second point to be made is that we need to
exercise maximum restraint before resorting to military force. The Iraq
experience should tell us that unless extreme conditions exist to justify
pre-emptive action against a suspected weapons of mass destruction (WMD)
program, diplomacy in all its forms, including maximum pressure, coupled
with credible verification, should be the primary avenue of choice."

Howzat again? The Iraq 'experience' DEFINED 'extreme conditions' that
JUSTIFIED pre-emptive action.

Let's reset the WayBack machine to 1991, when the UN gave Saddam 90 days
to account for his weapons programs as a condition of the Gulf War
ceasefire.   As of March, 2003, Saddam had not yet complied with that
resolution, or the 17 SUBSEQUENT UN resolutions, all of which reiterated
the first one.

Will Iran be next?  The question is, will the U.S. go to war against Iran,
not just to set tens of millions of suffering souls free from the
Ayatollah's reign of terror but to stop Iran from becoming a nuclear power
and thus posing a clear and present danger to U.S. national security?

(You know, the lessons we REALLY learned from Iraq?)

There is far stronger evidence of Iranian nuclear ambitions than there
were for Iraq.  We know the Russians have built nuclear power facilities
for Iran's terrorist regime, and are contracted to build more such
facilities in the coming years.

Iran ADMITS its intent to enrich uranium into weapons-grade material --
despite international protestations.

On top of all this, evidence of Iran's support for global terror
(including funding and at times directing Hezbollah, Hamas, and the deadly
anti-American insurgents in Iraq) is undeniable.  Sounds EXACTLY like
Iraq.

It begs another question. How would we know that any deal the U.N.,
Europeans, or even the US could strike would be honored by the mad mullahs
governing the country?

How could we know it isn't an effort to buy time until it is too late?
Iran's mullahs are testing the waters, looking for some signal that
confirm the US won't actually take action to prevent them from becoming a
nuclear threat.

Does anybody really doubt that if the mullahs acquire nuclear weapons they
will use them -- at the minimum to intimidate Iraq, Saudi Arabia and the
Gulf emirates; drive up the price of oil; and bring Western economies to
their knees?  Or that a nuclear Iran would not hesitate to use them
against its arch-enemy, Israel?

From the standpoint of Israel, now facing a prospect of certain sworn
adversaries armed with nuclear weapons, there is every reason to believe
Israel will strike preemptively before Iran's nuclear ambitions have
passed the point of no return.

Defense Minister Shaul Mofaz told the Yediot Aharonot newspaper last month
that "all options" were being weighed to prevent Iran from achieving
nuclear weapons capability.

Army Chief of Staff Moshe Yaalon said, "We will not rely on others."

The prophet Ezkiel's scenario for the Gog Magog War continues to develop
precisely as he outlined.  There is little doubt that an Israeli strike
against Iran would bring the world community down on it like a hammer --
the only country likely to side with Israel is, was, and remains, the
United States of America.

Tehran can expect the full support of the Islamic world, not to mention
its close financial allies in Moscow.

"Thus saith the Lord GOD; Behold, I am against thee, O Gog, the chief
prince (Rosh) of Meshech (Moscow) and Tubal (Tubolsk) . . . and I will
bring thee forth, and all thine army, horses and horsemen, all of them
clothed with all sorts of armour, even a great company with bucklers and
shields, all of them handling swords:

Persia (Iran) Ethiopia (modern Sudan) and Libya (Islamic North Africa). .
  Gomer (Cimmerians -- southwestern Ukraine)"

What Ezekiel prophesied, then, is an end-time battle involving the
following nations coming against Israel:

1) Russia (Meshech, Tubal, Magog[?], 2) Gomer, (Ukraine) Togarmah
(southwestern Turkey along the Syrian border;  2) Iran (Persia), 3) Sudan
(Ethiopia or Cush), and 4) Libya.

With Turkey, Iran, Libya and Sudan, Russia leads an Islamic coalition of
nations against Israel: Turkey from the north, Iran from the east, Libya
from the west and the Sudan from the south.

Scholars are split over whether the Gog-Magog War takes place before the
Tribulation, or whether it occurs sometime before its mid-point.

The reference in Ezekiel 39:9 suggests Gog Magog takes place at some point
BEFORE the Tribulation Period, or at least, as part of the 'kick-off' to
the 70th Week of Daniel.

"And they that dwell in the cities of Israel shall go forth, and shall set
on fire and burn the weapons, both the shields and the bucklers, the bows
and the arrows, and the handstaves, and the spears, and they shall burn
them with fire seven years:"

Verses 10-11 indicate that both the combatants and the weapons are
contaminated.  It will take seven months just to bury the dead and
'cleanse the land'.

And it will take seven years to 'cleanse the land' of the invader's
weapons -- suggesting the deployment of nuclear weaponry.

"And I will send a fire on Magog, and among them that dwell carelessly in
the isles: and they shall know that I am the LORD." (Ezekiel 39:6)

"And they shall sever out men of continual employment, passing through the
land to bury with the passengers those that remain upon the face of the
earth, to cleanse it: after the end of seven months shall they search. "
(v.14)

The stage is set.  On one side is Israel and America. Because we ARE
Israel and America, we are opposed by the entire world.

And because of Russia's nuclear partnership with Iran, we can expect
active military opposition from Russia and its other Islamic allies also
eager for Russian nuclear 'assistance' similar to that offered Iran.

Since Iran seems bound and determined to achieve nuclear status, even at
the risk of a pre-emptive strike, even the cause of the Gog-Magog War
seems to be set in stone for this generation.

Whether Ezekiel's scenario plays out before the Tribulation Period begins,
or at some point before it reaches its midpoint, one thing is abundantly
clear.

It WILL play out in this generation.

"So likewise ye, when ye shall see all these things, know that it is near,
even at the doors. Verily I say unto you, This generation shall not pass,
till all these things be fulfilled." (Matthew 24:33-34)