(Rev 6:5-6) And when he had opened the third seal, I heard the third living creature saying: Come and see. And behold a black horse. And he that sat on him had a pair of scales in his hand. And I heard, as it were a voice in the midst of the four living creatures, saying: Two pounds of wheat for a penny, and thrice two pounds of barley for a penny: and see thou hurt not the wine and the oil.

BEGINNING OF PHASE 2 OF THE GLOBAL ECONOMIC SYSTEMIC CRISIS: THE PHASE OF ACCELERATION

Last February, LEAP/E2020 anticipated that a global systemic crisis was to be triggered at the end of March. Today, three months later, LEAP/E2020 can anticipate that the initial phase of this crisis is about to be finished and that, as soon as the beginning of June 2006, the crisis will enter a phase of acceleration. Before detailing the main features of this new phase (described in GEAB Nr5), LEAP/E2020 would like to clarify the 4 different phases of a global systemic crisis.

A global systemic crisis develops following a complex process where 4 phases can be distinguished, overlapping one another:
• in the first so-called “trigger” phase, a variety of until then un-related factors, start converging and interacting in a way that is perceptible mostly by careful observers and central players
• in the second “acceleration” phase, a large majority of players and observers suddenly become aware that a crisis is there and that it has already begun to affect a growing amount of the system’s components
• in the third so-called “impact” phase, the system starts to transform radically (implosion and/or explosion) under the strain of cumulated factors, simultaneously affecting the whole system
• in the fourth and last “decanting” phase, the features of the new system born from the crisis begin to appear.

In the present situation, LEAP/E2020 estimates that the initial trigger-phase is about to finish and that, during June 2006, the world will enter a phase of acceleration of the crisis.

The acceleration should elapse over 3 to 6 months and convey seven concrete consequences:

1. accelerated collapse of the Dollar
2. internal social and political crisis in the US
3. Iran/USA/Israel military conflict
4. increased global inflation
5. stop of the process of trade and economic globalisation
6. accelerated emergence of new regional/continental « blocks »
7. rebalancing of world assets’ comparative value.

The passage to phase 3 (so-called « impact-phase ») of the global systemic crisis process will occur when at least four of the previously mentioned factors will have taken place. 

EXCELLENT EDITORIAL: Wishful non-thinking won't stop the economy vaporising

MORE: Markets 'are like 1987 crash'

THIS WEEK'S HEADLINES

GLOBAL MARKETS-Stocks rocked by commodities, risk fear; bonds up
Asian stocks close sharply lower as rout continues
Latin American stocks and currency fall as investors flee emerging markets
Russian Stock Market Loses 9% of Value
Indian stock exchanges halt trade after 10% fall
Mexican stocks plummet, peso hit hard
Emerging-Market Stocks Drop a 10th Day, Longest Rout in 8 Years