Japan’s turbulent history of war and natural catastrophe has already
given the world a terrifying vocabulary of death: tsunami, kamikaze,
Hiroshima.
But the country now stands on the brink of unleashing its most
chilling phrase yet: genpatsu-shinsai – the combination of an
earthquake and nuclear meltdown capable of destroying millions of lives
and bringing a nation to its knees.
The phrase, derived from the Japanese words for “nuclear power” and
“quake disaster”, is the creation of Katsuhiko Ishibashi, Japan’s
leading seismologist and one of the Government’s top advisers on
nuclear-quake safety. He said that the world may never know how close
it came to its first genpatsu-shinsai this week. Luck, as much an
anything else, helped to avert it.
A 6.8 magnitude quake, which shook Niigata on Monday and left
thousands of homes uninhabitable, was three times more powerful than
the designers of the nearest nuclear power plant – Kashiwazaki-Kariwa –
had prepared for, or even imagined.
The unfolding crisis at Kashiwazaki has renewed calls for the
immediate closure of the five atomic reactors at Hamaoka – an old plant
in Shizuoka built directly above a geologically active fault about 100
kilometres (60 miles) west of Tokyo. Despite claims by its operators,
Chubu Electric, that the plant meets government standards,
seismologists said yesterday that it was “almost impossible” to ensure
the safety of a nuclear plant in that location. The Hamaoka plant, said
Mitsuhei Murata, a former diplomat and professor at Tokai Gakuen
University, presents Japan with its biggest risk of genpatsu-shinsai.
A quake there, he said, could smash the reactor and send a
radioactive cloud over Tokyo within eight hours: “We would be looking
at 24 million victims and the end for Japan.”
The seismology community agrees that the Tokai region, which
includes Tokyo and Hamaoka, is due for a massive quake. The Tokyo
metropolitan government has drawn up disaster plans that assume an 87
per cent probability of a magnitude 8.0 quake within 30 years. But
power companies have been allowed to prepare for much smaller quakes
when building nuclear plants. If the epicentre of Monday’s quake had
been 10 km further to the southwest, the seismology research team at
Kobe University calculates that the reactor could have split and
unleashed a “terrible, terrible disaster”.
As it is, the Tokyo Electric Power Company (Tepco) has admitted to a
worrying series of problems since the quake, including the stunning
revelation that the Kashiwazaki plant was constructed on top of an
active fault – despite Tepco’s firm denials in court that this was the
case. Vital reactor data on the minutes immediately after the quake
have already been lost by Tepco. Numerous leaks of radiation have been
detected.
The Times learnt yesterday that one of the exhaust ducts continued
to pump radioactive particles into the air for nearly three days after
the reactors were shut down. Professor Ishibashi has fought the
Government unsuccessfully for urgent reviews of quake-proofing
standards throughout Japan’s nuclear industry. A member of the
Government’s own panel on nuclear safety, he criticised the Government
and the Japanese public yesterday for their failure to recognise how
close the country was to genpat-su-shinsai. Since 1969 seismology
advisers to the Government have given warning of the danger of building
atomic plants, but were officially ignored. “It’s not that people
carefully consider my arguments and then decide against higher
standards of safety. They just don’t give the possibility of disaster a
moment’s thought,” Professor Ishibashi told The Times.
“Before World War II there were many Japanese who were against the
idea of a war with America but they ended up just marching blindly
towards it. I think Japan today is much like it was before the atom
bomb was dropped on Hiroshima.”
Citizens’ groups, a handful of corporate leaders and former
government officials are fighting for a review of Japan’s nuclear
reliance. Mounting evidence of radiation leaks, unprepar-edness and
deception over the dangers of the plant’s location mean that the
problems at Kashiwazaki will reopen a court showdown over the plant at
Hamaoka.
The Government has underplayed the risk of disaster. For this,
Professor Ishibashi and others blame the “nuclear village” – corporate
interests, politicians with links to the industry and academics who owe
their salaries to power companies. All 55 of Japan’s nuclear reactors
pose a genpatsu-shinsai risk, Professor Ishibashi said.