From: David Dolan
To: Israel Update
Sent: Monday, February 27, 2006 9:12 AM
Subject: [ISRAELUPDATE] FEBRUARY NEWS REVIEW
 

Shalom from Jerusalem,

Below is my news and analysis report covering the most important news during February here in Israel and around the region.  It naturally focuses on the ongoing repercussions of the Hamas landslide victory one month ago, especially examining how Israel, the US and EU and surrounding Islamic countries are reacting to that Palestinian political earthquake.  I also look at developments related to Iran’s nuclear program and Al Qaida’s growing connections to Palestinian terror groups.

I will be heading out on another international speaking tour again in mid-March, flying first to the UK and Ireland and then to Germany, the United States and Barbados before returning home in the summer.  I will send out my full schedule soon, and it will also be posted on my web site, www.ddolan.com   I will continue sending out these monthly news updates. Before departing, I have been asked to host a television special about the Ark of the Covenant in place of the ailing Zola Levitt.  I ask for your prayers for that substantial project, and of course for Zola and family in his time of special need.
 

HAMAS TRIUMPH ROCKS THE REGION

By David Dolan
 

The aftershocks from the stunning Hamas landslide victory in January’s Palestinian elections continued to rattle the region during February. Israeli leaders found themselves on the horns of a profound dilemma: How to quarantine the virulent repercussions from the Islamic extremist electoral triumph while keeping the situation on the ground from becoming even more explosive. The same delicate issue was being dealt with by international sponsors of the derailed Road Map peace process, while Muslim countries like Iran and Syria worked on their own responses to the unexpected Hamas electoral rout.
 

While puzzled politicians pondered their next moves, a Palestinian terrorist stabbed an Israeli woman to death and wounded five other passengers on a commuter bus near Tel Aviv in early February.  Further south, Kassam rockets continued to fly from inside the Israeli-evacuated Gaza Strip, nearly striking a strategic target near Ashkelon on one occasion that could have interrupted electricity supplies to half of Israel. Another rocket struck a home on a kibbutz in the western Negev, seriously injuring a toddler when shrapnel struck her head. This came as Israeli officials revealed that a potentially deadly mortar attack on southern Jerusalem had been narrowly averted.
 

North of the capital, the most extensive army operation since the Gaza evacuation last August was launched mid-month in an attempt to root out budding terrorist cells in the town of Nablus.  Palestinian leaders said the military campaign, buttressed by Israeli air strikes on rocket-launching targets in the Gaza Strip, could endanger the terrorist “timeout” declared by Hamas and other Palestinian groups in early 2005.
 

Further north, tensions continued to boil along the border with Lebanon as that divided country marked the one year anniversary of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri’s assassination, believed ordered by the Baathist regime in neighboring Syria. This came as Syria admitted it has been funneling weapons to the Hizbullah militia in violation of an agreement made with the United Nations in 2000. Additional verbal volleys were lobbed at Israel from Tehran during the month as Iran’s nuclear program faced possible sanctions at the United Nations.
 

THREE CONDITIONS
 

Soon after the militant Islamic Resistance Movement—more widely known by its Arabic acronym, Hamas—captured 74 seats in the 132 seat Palestinian legislature, Israeli government leaders announced that they would have absolutely no formal dealings with any Hamas-led Palestinian government unless the radical group did three essential things: 1) Renounce all violence and disarm illegal “Izzaddin al-Qassem” militia units. 2) Alter the Hamas Charter call for Israel’s total destruction, replacing it with a pledge to recognize Israel’s permanent right to exist.  3) Pledge to fully honor all previous signed agreements between Israeli and Palestinian officials, especially the seminal Oslo peace accords.  The three Israeli conditions were subsequently endorsed by the four powers that comprise the Road Map quartet: the United States, the European Union, Russia and the United Nations.
 

Middle East analysts said that Acting Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and his cabinet subordinates understand there is virtually no chance that jubilant Hamas leaders will adhere to even one of these necessary conditions, let alone all three of them. Still, Israel had to make clear to Road Map sponsors that it is not firmly slamming the door on all potential future contact with a Hamas-led Palestinian Authority government, but only with a cabinet controlled by a group still formally espousing and actively working for Israel’s ultimate annihilation.
 

Ecstatic over their sudden rise to political power, Hamas leaders wasted no time in reiterating their core rejectionist positions regarding the hated “Zionist entity” that they wish to see totally obliterated.  “Recognizing the State of the Israeli enemy is not on the table," said Gaza-based Hamas leader Mahmoud al-Zahar in mid-February. Underlining this point, he added that, "Our program is to liberate Palestine, all of Palestine."  He went on to reveal plans to strengthen the illegal Hamas militia and warned that the reach of the group’s Kassem rockets “is being improved all the time.”
 

The Gaza-based Hamas official also commented on statements made by several other Hamas leaders indicating that a longterm ceasefire—known in Arabic as hudna, or a temporary timeout until Islam’s percieved enemies can be handily defeated—was possible with Israel.  "Anyone who thinks any period of calm means giving in is mistaken. The calm is in preparation for a new round of resistance and victory," he stated forcifully, adding ominously that Hamas members had “entered the political arena to eliminate any traces of the Olso Accords.”
 

THE IRANIAN CONNECTION
 

Al-Zahar’s hardline sentiments were echoed by overall Hamas leader Khaled Mashal during a post election visit with Iranian clerical and political leaders in Tehran.  Even though the Iranian regime is dominated by radical Shiite Muslims, and the Palestinians are mainly Sunnis, Iranian leaders promised to back Hamas to the hilt, including financially if necessary. This came as extremist President Mahmoud Ahmadinajab   continued to publicly call for Israel’s destruction.
 

Recognizing that the militant Hamas group is apparrently here to stay, Jordanian officials later announced that Mashal would be permitted to return his base of operations from Damascus to Amman, from where he was exiled after sanctioning terror attacks inside of Jordan. This promted Israeli Army General Yair Naveh, who commands the central region which includes all of Judea and Samaria, to reveal that Jordanian-based Al Qaida terrorist cells are already actively assisting several West Bank Palestinian groups. Meanwhile Israel’s leading newspaper quoted senior defense officials as warning that Al Qaida operatives are planning a “mega-attack” against Israel, with the intention of carrying it out sometime before the end of 2006.
 

General Naveh rattled some cages when he added that Jordanian King Abdullah is in danger of being toppled by Islamic extremists bent on establishing a chain of radical states stretching from Iran,Iraq and Jordan, and ending with Hamas-run territory at the very gates of Jerusalem.  When King Abdullah protested over the possibly precient warning, Naveh issued a formal apology, echoed later by Acting PM Ehud Olmert in a phone call to the Hashemite monarch.
 

Media reports quoted Russian Foreign Minister Sergie Lavrov as telling top officials of the five permanent UN Security Council members that Iran is “already in the preliminary stage of producing a large nuclear device.”  He added that his country had solid information that the radical state is ready to test the weapon. The five world powers, including China and Russia, later agreed to formally present the Iranian nuclear issue before the UN—a move that the US and Israel have been advocating for some time. This was followed two weeks later by a statement from the French Defense Minister that Iran’s nuclear program “has military goals,” and is “not designed for energy purposes” as Iranian leaders claim.
 

IS IT GOOD FOR THE JEWS?
 

Not a few Israeli analysts and politicians opined that, despite the obvious headaches and threats posed by the Hamas triumph, it was probably for the best that the militant Muslim group won such a clear cut landslide victory in the January election. They noted that the long dominant PLO Fatah movement has been openly conducting terrorist attacks against Israeli civilians since late 2000 via its illegal “Al Aksa Martyr’s Brigades,” sometimes supported by Fatah-controlled PA security forces. All the while, Fatah leaders maintained their verbal commitment to the moribund peace process with its highly touted, if practicably questionable “two state solution.”  With Hamas now seated in the saddle, it should be clearer to the international community, and to utopian left-wing Israelis and their foreign supporters, that Israel has no viable partner with which to negotiate further peace moves.
 

To help the world realize that Israel is serious about having no dealings with a Hamas-led PA government, the cabinet voted on February 19th to freeze all tax and customs revenue transfers to the Palestinians. Government ministers enacted other punitive measures as well, including halting all Palestinian travel between the Gaza Strip and West Bank and blocking the construction of planned Palestinian air and sea ports.
 

Acting PM Olmert told his cabinet that, "Israel sees the rise of Hamas as a dangerous reference point that transforms the Palestinian Authority into a terrorist authority. The new situation will influence future relations between Israel and the PA, and we will begin a process of scaling back ties unless Hamas fully accepts the principles presented to it by the international community.”
 

Although they had earlier endorsed Olmert’s conditions for dealing with Hamas, several Road Map sponsors labelled the Israeli government moves as premature.  They contended that Israeli officials had promised to take no action until the new Hamas-led government was actually formed, which is not expected before at least the middle of March.  If Hamas succeeds in forming a viable government, the US and EU say they will join Israel in halting all direct financial aid to the PA, but continue to channel substantial “humanitarian support” to the Palestinian people through various non-governmental organizations like the UN and World Vision. Some Israelis say this would amount to indireclty funding terrorism.
 

The Israeli sanctions came just one day after overall PA leader Mahmoud Abbas announced that he would ask Hamas to form a new government.  He urged such a government to adhere to the Oslo accords, recognize Israel’s permanent existence and foreswear violence. Hamas leaders rejected those conditions once again while revealing that the relatively moderate Gaza-based Hamas politician Ismail Haniya would become the new PA prime minister (that position did not even exist under the original PA structure, but was later urged upon a reluctant Yasser Arafat by Western nations hoping to diffuse the veteran PLO leader’s overarching dictatorial powers).
 

Haniya later told the Washington Post that Hamas might “make peace with Israel in stages” if it first completely evacuated all territory captured in 1967, including Jerusalem’s walled Old City. Israeli officials rejected the statement as “clever verbal gymnastics” urged upon Haniya by a Palestinian public relations firm the group recently hired to clean up its international image.  One day later, Haniya denied that he had offered any peace deal in the interview, clarifying that he was merely speaking of possibly enacting “a political hudna,” or a temporary ceasefire.
 

KNESSET ELECTIONS
 

As Israel’s own national election campaign entered its final month, sparring intensified over the thorny issue of how best to deal with the haunting Hamas reality. Ads picturing a stern-looking Binyamin Netanyahu popped up on public transport buses around the country proclaiming that the Likud leader would “stand firm” against Hamas. This followed charges from senior Likud politicians that Kadima party leader Ehud Olmert had displayed “reckless tolerance” for the radical group by allowing it to participate in Palestinian elections inside of Jerusalem’s municipal boundaries.
 

Right-wing politicians also heaped heavy rebukes on Olmert’s handling of the February 1st dismantling of the small settlement outpost of Amona.  Dozens of security personnel and settlers were injured, several seriously, in fierce clashes that accompanied the razing of nine Jewish homes north of the capital.  Critics charged that unlike during the relatively peaceful Gaza evacuations last August, the government had ordered soldiers and police to use brute force against the protestors.
 

Olmert angrily rejected the contentions, and later confirmed reports that he intends to carry out further unilateral settlement evacuations meant “to separate Israel from most of the Palestinian population, and establish Israel’s permanent borders.”  Netanyahu denounced this as “irresponsible” in light of the recent Hamas triumph, noting that current Shin Bet security head Yuval Diskin has warned that further unilateral withdrawals will seriously endanger Israel’s security. More significantly, Olmert’s intentions were also opposed by several senior Kadima politicians, including former Shin Bet director Avi Dichter.
 

Netanyahu reiterated earlier statements that the unilateral Sharon government pullouts from the Gaza Strip and northern Samaria had significantly strengthened the radical Palestinian group, giving it credible grounds to boast that its manifold terrorist strikes had forced Israel to flee.  He said the government decision to evacuate the disputed territory without formally negotiating terms of the withdrawals with the Fatah-run PA left unnecessary egg of the face of PA Chairman Mahmoud Abbas, and therefore weakened his ability to thwart Hamas participation in the Palestinian legislative elections.  Netanyahu’s critique—said to be shared by many senior army and intelligence officials—was also echoed by several Labour politicians even though the left-wing party supported the forced evacuations.
 

KADIMA MARCHES ON!
 

Opinion polls taken after the Kadima-led interim cabinet voted to freeze monthly revenue transfers to the PA showed the action was strongly supported by most voters.  Analysts said this helped explain why Kadima is projected to win a substantial electoral victory on March 28th, even though the party has lost some of the initial surge of support garnered in the wake of Ariel Sharon’s debilitating January 4th stroke.
 

Several opinion polls published the last weekend of February showed Olmert’s party capturing between 38 to 39 seats—a drop from its post Sharon stroke surge to 42-44 seats, but still nearly one-third of the 120 Knesset seats up for grabs. The Likud gained two to three seats in most surveys taken soon after the Hamas landslide victory was certified, and is now expected to win 16 to 17 mandates. Analysts said Netanyahu will probably capture even more seats if Palestinian terrorists step up their pre-election assaults, as security officials anticipate.
 

Populist Labour party leader Amir Peretz—heavily disparaged by some party comrades for focusing too much attention on economic issues instead of on mushrooming national security concerns—saw his party’s projected fortunes decline still further in February. Garnering around 20 Knesset seats in earlier polls to the Likud’s 15, Labour is now hovering just ahead of the Likud, with 18 or 19 seats.
 

The Sephardic religious Shas party held steady in most polls at around ten seats.  Meanwhile the projected fortunes of the once powerful National Religious Party rose after it formally merged with the far right-wing National Union, with the new party expected to also receive at least nine seats. The Russian immigrant Yisrael Beiteinu (Israel is our Home) party is also projected to capture some eight or nine seats.  The Orthodox Torah Judaism party will win its usual five to six seats, all polls revealed, as will the ultra-left wing Meretz party. The Knesset’s three Arab political parties, who announced in February that they would run together on a united ticket, are projected to end up with at least eight seats.
 

Israeli political analysts said that if all of these numbers hold, and the Likud captures at least 20 seats, the right-wing and religious parties would together hold some 55 seats in the next Knesset—a sizable opposition to the expected Kadima-led coalition government. But they add that Olmert will probably bring at least one religious party into his centrist coalition, relying on his vast experience putting together secular-Orthodox alliances while serving as Jerusalem’s mayor.
 

Analysts say Olmert will probably persuade Yisrael Beiteinu’s popular Russian-born leader Avigdor Lieberman—once a close aid to Netanyahu—to bring his party on board the coalition train. If he succeeds in knitting together a government that includes Shas, United Torah Judaism and Yisrael Beiteinu, as many predict, Olmert would not need to include either Labour or Likud in his cabinet—leaving them both out of the ruling elite for the first time in Israel’s modern history. Still, many anticipate that a humbled Labour party will end up joining the new government, especially if current party leader Amir Peretz resigns after yet another poor Labour electoral showing.
 

Various polls continue to show that a majority of Israelis are not happy with any of the three contenders vying to inherit the stricken Ariel Sharon’s cabinet seat. Nearly 50% of voters questioned in a Smith Institute survey said Ehud Olmert was “not suitable” to carry on serving as prime minister, with a minority of 46% opining that he is an acceptable leader.  Still, only 36% believe Netanyahu is qualified to return to the job he held in the late 1990s.  Faring even worse was Amir Peretz, deemed by just one in five voters as suitable to lead the world’s only Jewish state.
 

More than ever before, Israel needs her prophesied Messiah to come and rule as King of Kings in Jerusalem!  May He swiftly return in our time and vanquish His enemies!  “The sons of those who afflicted you will come bowing to you, and all those who despised you will bow themselves at the soles of your feet.  And they will call you the city of the Lord, the Zion of the Holy One of Israel.”  (Isaiah 60:14)

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DAVID DOLAN is a Jerusalem-based author and journalist who has lived in Israel since 1980.  His new DVD, titled “FOR ZIONS’S SAKE—REPORTING FROM THE LAND OF THE BIBLE,” is now available on both PAL and NTCS versions.  Details are posted at his web site, www.ddolan.com