The Omega Letter Intelligence Digest
Vol: 42 Issue: 7 - Monday, March 07, 2005
Another Line in the Sand. . .
The Bush administration has drawn another line in the sand in the Middle East, and has given Syria until May to be across it.
Syrian President Bashar Assad announced he would pull back 14,000 troops as the first step in a two-phase withdrawal, but only as far as the Bekaa Valley. Not good enough, says Washington.
This time, Washington isn't having to fight a two front battle, one with whoever-the-current-enemy is, and the other with France. This time, the French are standing tall in solidarity with their great friends from across the pond.
"When the United States and France say withdraw, we mean complete withdrawal, no half-hearted measures,” said President Bush in a New Jersey speech. (It's great to have allies, again.)
The newspapers say that France, the European Union and the Arab League have all joined in calling for an immediate withdrawal of Syria from Lebanon, creating a really confusing mess.
Is France not part of the European Union? And what is the Arab League up to?
First, the European Union is part of France. Just ask the French.
The second question will take a bit more time. First off, the Arab League isn't exactly joining the US and the Eurofrench in a united stand for democracy.
The League's 123rd session of foreign ministers agreed to reiterate their rejection of US sanctions imposed on Syria. It issued a statement condemning the US policy as 'a flagrant violation of the international law and calling upon the U.S. to reconsider this act because it confirms complete bias to Israel.'
It reaffirmed its support for Syria's 'just' demands to restore the occupied Golan to June 4th line 1967, asserting rejection of any Israeli procedures that aim at changing the geographic and demographic characteristic of Golan.
It warned against the dangers of Israel's nuclear arsenal on the region and the world as a whole, asserting that achieving a just and comprehensive peace is through liberating all the occupied lands and restoring the usurped Arab rights.
(In other words, Israel's destruction and her replacement with an Arab state.)
The Arab League then rejected, "intervention in Lebanon's internal affairs and any attempt to damage the Lebanese-Syrian fraternal relations, asserting keenness on Lebanon's sovereignty, security and stability and rejection of Israeli occupation of Shabaa farms."
Having set the stage, Arab League Secretary-General Amr Musa gave a convoluted speech condemning America and Israel for being America and Israel, somewhere in which, he asked Syria to obey the terms of the Taif Accord in 1998 and withdraw its troops from Lebanon.
To listen to the press, you'd think the Arab League was about to commit troops to kick Syria out. I thought it might be useful to put Arab 'support' for a Syrian withdrawal into perspective.
Assessment:
Having quantified Arab 'support' -- what's Europe's sudden interest all about? After all, Syria has been in Lebanon since 1989. So has Hezbollah, a group that Europe is loathe to add to the list of terrorist groups in order to placate Iran.
Does Europe have some kind of deranged death wish? It would almost appear so. But the fact is that Europe’s excessive government regulation of its business community, high tax rates, and over burdened welfare state has forced them to deal with terror nations like Iran, Iraq and Syria in order to save their own economies.
Europe's refusal to participate in Iraq's liberation was calculated to win them friends among the other Middle Eastern dictatorships. It was a miscalculation.
The Europeans, particularly the French, never dreamed that the Iraq experiment would result in a region-wide popular democratic revolution. Instead of winning them friends among the dictatorships, it exposed them to the people as looters of the Iraqi economy.
Supporting Syria's withdrawal from Lebanon is part of a European effort to rehabilitate its image. The French are hoping they can take the lead role in 'liberating' Lebanon, and compete with the US for the hearts and minds of the newly liberated Arab masses on that level.
The Europeans see new business opportunities, particularly for their 'Euro Med Neighborhood' policy.
Syria's offer to withdraw to the Bekaa Valley was rejected by the US, suggesting that is where the line in the sand will be drawn. Neither Damascus nor Tehran wants to cede control of the Bekaa Valley to Lebanon -- or anybody else.
It's all about the Bekaa Valley. The Europeans are likely to settle for leaving the Bekaa Valley alone. They don't want to find Saddam's WMD arsenal is buried there. This is about new business relationships, not about souring future ones.
Neither do the Europeans want to displace the thousands of Hezbollah terrorists from the Bekaa Valley into European cities where they can plan their revenge.
"When the United States and France say withdraw, we mean complete withdrawal, no half-hearted measures," says President Bush. The line has been drawn.
Whether or not Washington will have any allies when the time comes to cross it is another question altogether.
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