In Mideast elections, militants gain
Christian Science Monitor  | 6/08/05 | Dan Murphy and Joshua Mitnick
 

The electoral successes of Hamas and Hizbullah has the Bush administration contemplating the previously unthinkable: dealing with those it deems terrorists. The militant Palestinian group Hamas made significant gains in local elections in January. And many suspect they would have won this summer's legislative vote had it not been postponed this week. In Lebanon, Hizbullah flexed its political muscle on Sunday when a slate of candidates it heads swept the polls in the south of the country, making the organization a major force in the new government.

Though US officials remain publicly committed to not dealing with terrorists, the shifting political landscape of the Middle East may give the US and its allies few other options. President Bush's conviction that democracy is the answer to the region's ills makes it difficult to ignore the winners of legitimate contests. But the rise of groups listed by the US State Department as terrorists will test just how far the US is willing to push its democracy agenda.

"First of all we have to accept that Hamas is going to be the principal power in Gaza when Israel pulls out ... and Hizbullah is a major political factor in Lebanon,'' says Emad Gad, a political scientist at Cairo's Al Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies. "So, yes, engagement with Hamas and Hizbullah is important, but it's complicated and difficult because they're still armed."

Diplomats in Washington and the Middle East say evidence that these groups are popular with newly empowered voters is pushing the Bush administration toward a tentative willingness to work with Hamas and Hizbullah. But the US has not backed away from its tough stance against both groups. White House Press Secretary Scott McClellan reiterated Monday US demands that the "terrorist organization" Hizbullah disarm. Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas also came under pressure on his recent US visit to disarm Hamas.

But analysts say Bush seems to have a conviction about the transformational potential of democracy that makes almost everyone redeemable, perhaps a consequence of his own religious transformation as a born-again Christian. Whether these groups will change is uncertain. In Lebanon, the pro-Syrian Hizbullah's showing at the polls has strengthened its ability to resist US and United Nations pressure to disarm. The group established its popularity in the Shiite south of the country as a resistance movement against the Israeli occupation that ended in 2000.

Even Saad Hariri, whose father, Rafik, was assassinated in February and is seen as the likely choice as the country's next prime minister, says he'll bring Hizbullah into a ruling coalition.

"Hariri needs [Hizbollah's] votes in parliament to make up the kind of majority he wants,'' says Patrick Lang, former head of Middle East intelligence for the Defense Intelligence Agency. Mr. Lang worries that Islamist groups who he says are ultimately undemocratic will rise to power as a consequence of US policy in the region.

"Hizbullah has certainly been strengthened by what the [Bush] administration is doing ... and you can argue that our pressure on Abbas has made him look foolish and weak in the eyes of Palestinians and strengthened Hamas's hand."