Multiple Missile Launches by the DPRK: One Military Analysis

Posted by admin on 2006/7/4 15:19:13 ( )

*by Sean Osborne, Associate Director, Senior Analyst, Military Affairs
sosborne@homelandsecurityus.com

5 July 2006: Based on nearly a lifetime of military experience, it is my professional assessment and analysis that the continuing North Korean missile launches were and remain for, first and foremost, specific political, and military purposes, not entirely driven by internal North Korean requirements or necessity. For instance:

Follow the Money: The funding of these missiles and their launches came directly from the treasury of the Islamic Republic of Iran. North Korea is a destitute Stalinist nation, long on the verge of collapse. I believe these missiles, their fuel and the technical staff which prepare and maintain them were bought and paid for by the Islamic Republic as well as significant contributions by other nations friendly to the regime.

US Preoccupied: North Korea has correctly assessed that with a significant portion of US combat power and national treasury engaged in Iraq and Afghanistan, as well as counter-terrorism operations around the globe, it could proceed with the launches because the United States WOULD NOT react decisively to such an aggressive display of military force. Diplomatic huffing and puffing, but not much more - which is no deterrent at all to such nakedly aggressive behavior in the Western Pacific.

Preplanned Launch Date: The timing of these tests was intentionally scheduled to coincide with the American 4th of July holiday... this is a blatantly overt message of aggression. The increase of US intelligence, security and BMD defensive postures over the previous days and weeks prior to these launches CLEARLY evidences that the US Government knew well in advance that these multiple launches would occur during this holiday period.

A Message to the US & Japan These missile launches were also a belligerent message directed at the strengthened military relationship and increased joint military capabilities which exist between Japan and the United States, which in turn is specifically directed to counter North Korean military adventurism.

Telling Reactions by China, Russia: The reactions from totalitarian Russia and Red China to these North Korean launches will serve to illustrate with crystal clear, laser-like precision the intent and nature of the so-called Shanghai Pact towards the Western Judeo-Christian democracies led by the United States.

Sino-Russian Agenda at Play: That the North Korean dear leader was in Russia just prior to the ignition of these launches should be lost upon no one who has been paying attention to the Sino-Russian anti-American agenda. North Korea is a most convenient proxy as it currently exists to these nations as well as Iran. More importantly, had Russia or Red China not wanted these missiles to be launched - they would not have been launched. Period.

North Korea Launches Several Missiles - Scud, Nodong, Taepodong-2

4 July 2006:Shattering the relative calm surrounding this U.S. Independence Day, North Korea reportedly test fired 10 missiles into the direction of East Sea (Sea of Japan) between 3:30 and 7:30 a.m. local time. Reportedly, the long-range Taepodong-2, three-stage ballistic missile broke up in mid-air 30-40 seconds after launch; the others were unguided scud type missiles that landed in the sea of Japan. US NORAD monitored all launches and described them as “failures.”

We are investigating reports that multiple firings took place It is the DPRK's second test of the Taepodong, and the first test of the Taepodong-2 long range missile that has the reported ability - with a limited payload - to reach various areas of the United States.

One senior military official who spoke on condition of anonymity stated that 'the big story here should be that for the large part, Iran has been financing North Korea Missile program.' We are currently developing this information.