DEBKAfile Exclusive: Hamas and two allied terrorist groups getting set for showdown with Israel in S. Gaza's Rafah and Khan Younis

July 9, 2006, 1:37 PM (GMT+02:00)

Whereas Palestinian combat in northern and easter Gaza was confined to scattered RPG and anti-tank missile fire by small teams, Hamas, the Jihad Islami and the Popular Resistance Committees are preparing for a major showdown in the south. Tall earthworks to fortify the two towns against Israel attack are going up using heavy equipment impounded from local farmers and builders. The walls are meant to impede the advance of Israeli armored columns and give Palestinian anti-tank missile squads the advantage of height for attacks.

Hamas is also collecting ground-air missiles to hit the Israeli helicopters targeting teams of gunmen. Many streets in Rafah and Khan Younes have been booby-trapped and mined. Israeli intelligence estimates that Hamas will hold back from major attacks in the next two or three days while conducting close surveillance of IDF and Shin Bet methods of operation. This explains why they are not using the Grad rockets in their arsenal. But any Israeli military escalation may well be met by a large-scale attack on Israeli forces in the Gaza Strip or a major terrorist attack in Israel, accompanied by the shooting of the Grad rockets.

Direct missile hits to two Sderot homes badly injure one man, leave several in shock early Sunday

July 9, 2006, 1:24 PM (GMT+02:00)

Sunday, Israeli air strike injured a group of Palestinian gunmen near the Karni goods crossing between Gaza and Israel

The crossing, ordered open by the Israeli government to admit essential supplies to Gaza, is repeatedly shut under Palestinian terrorist threat.

Through Saturday night, Israeli air force bombed several Palestinian terrorist sites: the Abu Rish Brigades command center in the evacuated Neve Dekalim, a group of Jihad Islami gunmen in Sejaya outside Gaza City, a bridge near Beit Hanoun in the north used by missile crews to transport Qassams to launch sites. A tank force entered the former Dugit settlement in the north. The Israeli military denies causing the explosion near the Karni crossing in which members of a family were killed. According to IDF figures, 70 armed Palestinians have been killed in its 11-day offensive to recover the kidnapped corporal Gilead Shalit and terminate the missile blitz of southern Israel.

Saturday, July 8, Israeli troops backed by tanks and helicopters clashed with Palestinians on the outskirts of Shejaya, killing 4 gunmen, while avoiding the urban area as in the Beit Lahiya operation. They withdrew a few hours later. Another IDF force pulled out of al-Atatra outside Beit Lahiya early Saturday after 48 hours of combat, leaving a small team to hunt for tunnels and bomb traps around Beit Hanun further south.

Overnight, Palestinian missile fire continued, peaking Friday to 25, including for the first time Netivot, 12 km, from N. Gaza.

DEBKAfile military sources report that Fatah-al Aqsa Brigades have taken over 30% of the missile barrage to compensate for staying out of the battles against Israeli troops. Hamas, Jihad Islami and the PRCs which lead the Qassam offensive are stepping up the pace of launchings to prod Israel into losing the tempo of its incremental, measured operation and getting the final do-or-die confrontation over quick

Israeli PM Ehud Olmert takes sides in cabinet ministers' dispute over methods of halting Palestinian missiles

July 9, 2006, 6:35 PM (GMT+02:00)

The PM said no timetable would be set for the IDF offensive in Gaza. James Bond-style operations would cost us international support, he said of the IDF offensive sparked by the Hamas kidnap of Israeli soldier Gilead Shali two weeks ago, and the incessant missile attacks directed against a large Israeli civilian population.

Olmert also declared there would be no negotiations with Hamas, no negotiations with terrorists.

DEBKAfile reports that internal security minister Avi Dichter took exception to government policy for the second time in 48 hours.

Friday, July 7, he stepped out of line by suggesting Palestinian prisoners might be released after the Israeli soldier was returned.

He did so again at the cabinet session Sunday when he demanded that the military be given clear and explicit directives to apply all its resources for the total termination of the Palestinian missile offensive from Gaza. Now that 200,000 Israeli civilians are targeted, why wait for heavy casualties before the military is allowed to apply all its strength to the mission? Dichter asked.

Defense minister Amir Peretz argued that military commanders in Gaza know exactly what is expected of them, but patience is needed in dealing with the missile hostage crisis. IDF units would continue to carry out raids of varying intensity in the Gaza Strip, said the defense minister, while Israel continues its diplomatic efforts.

Intelligence officials reported that the Hamas military arm has not been weakened by Israel operations so far.

DEBKAfile's military sources say the limited in-and-out forays Olmert and Peretz have delineated for the Gaza offensive are not based on a premeditated operational program, but designed to lend the two civilian ministers hands-on control of the mililtary. Dichter, on the other hand, whose years as Shin Bet director thoroughly acquainted him with the Gaza scene, thinks like most of the military command, including chief of staff, Lt.-Gen. Dan Halutz, that neither of the operation's acclaimed targets can be attained by this tactic. Whenever an Israeli raider force pulls out of a targeted sector Hamas, Jihad Islami and PRC gunmen move right back in and restart Qassam missile launches. In fact they step them up, says the internal security minister.

Olmert and Peretz believe they can teach Hamas to make a profit-and-loss accounting of their course of action and draw rational conclusion. In Dichter's view, this sort of mind-set is alien to terrorists, who are not susceptible to lessons or attrition.