Shalom from Jerusalem,
Below is my latest commentary for the popular World New Daily web site, published today. I especially look at the election prospects of Ariel Sharon’s two most probable successors as prime minister, Ehud Olmert and Binyamin Netanyahu, both of whom I have interviewed on several occasions. My commentary is featured with two other excellent pieces on similar topics by WND founder Joseph Farah and author Hal Lindsey. I especially note that various Israeli leaders have apparently suffered reverses after taking steps to meet international demands to end Jewish control over portions of Judaism’s biblical Promised Land.
Ironically, I was working on a commentary on Hal Lindsey’s January 1st departure from the TBN network when Sharon suffered his massive, debilitating stroke, which naturally changed my writing direction. I will complete that earlier commentary in the coming days.
I report in my commentary, finished only hours ago, that an opinion poll-conducted on Thursday and published in today’s Haaretz newspaper reveals that Olmert will lead Sharon’s Kadima party to triumph in the March 28th elections. But is that really the case? Read below for more details.
Meanwhile it is now entirely clear that the comatose Israeli prime minister will never recover his normal faculties, even if he emerges alive from his medically induced coma. His doctors basically acknowledged last night that he has undoubtedly suffered irreversible damage from his heavy brain hemorrhaging and the nine hours of surgery it took to stem it. An Israeli doctor friend of mine shares the opinion of some other medical experts that Sharon’s doctors did not need to give him heavy anti-coagulants after his initial mild stroke on December 18th, which many believe was the main cause of his massive bleeding. This issue will probably swirl in the coming days, especially if the stricken premier dies, as many expect.
Meanwhile Israeli forces remain vigilant in the wake of Sharon’s debilitation, in case Islamic terror groups attempt to take advantage of the situation by launching fresh attacks. Thanks for your prayers for Israel and her people in these difficult hours.
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Who follows Sharon?
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------Posted: January 6, 2006
1:00 a.m. Eastern© 2006 WorldNetDaily.com
Elected in a landslide just weeks after George W. was sworn in as America's 43rd president, Ariel Sharon began his relationship with his U.S. counterpart on a sour note. As evidence reportedly mounted that Bush was preparing to sacrifice America's main non-Arab Mideast ally in the wake of al-Qaida's horrendous 9-11 attacks, Sharon sternly warned the new White House occupant not to treat Israel like Western leaders treated Czechoslovakia after Hitler's invasion sparked World War II:
In 1938, enlightened Europe sacrificed Czechoslovakia for the sake of a temporary, convenient solution. Don't try to appease the Arabs at our expense ... Israel will not be Czechoslovakia. Israel will fight terrorism.
Greatly offended at the implied comparison with notorious British lightweight Neville Chamberlain, the Texan angrily rejected Sharon's analogy as "unacceptable." When the portly Israeli premier went on in early 2002 to launch a major military operation in the wake of an unprecedented Palestinian terror blitz that slaughtered over 100 of his citizens in March alone, Bush allowed only five days of Israeli action before he called upon Sharon to halt his counter-offensive.
Relations between the two leaders improved immensely one year later. The reason was simple: Sharon dropped his 2001 campaign pledge to focus almost exclusively on fighting Palestinian terrorism and instead publicly embraced the Bush-promoted Roadmap peace plan. This was amazing given that he realized it mandated quick Israeli civilian and military withdrawals from territory captured from Egypt and Jordan in 1967.
Sure, Yasser Arafat was also called upon to immediately disarm and dismantle all Palestinian terror groups. But the sometimes celebrated, often despised ex-Israeli army general had no illusions that anything remotely that sublime was about to happen. Instead, Sharon would use the excuse of American pressure to confound his many astounded Likud party cohorts by agreeing to swiftly evacuate parts of Palestinian-populated land that Israeli officials found most problematic to control, while apparently preparing to ultimately annex remaining portions of the disputed territories.
The Old Warrior obviously did not succeed in completing that lofty task before he was felled by a massive stroke and cerebral hemorrhaging on Wednesday. And it is highly unlikely that anyone following in his oversized shoes will be able to fulfill his immense goals.
Opinion polls reveal that a good portion of Israelis who said they would support Sharon's new Kadima political party in March 28 national elections are traditional Likud voters. This is not surprising given that most Kadima lights used to feed at the Likud's conservative troughs.
With their formidable leader now suddenly out of the picture, an intense succession struggle could well involve several Kadima politicians possessing far less gravitas, especially Acting Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, female Justice Minister Tzipi Livni and Defense Minister Shaul Mofaz.
Although an opinion poll taken soon after Sharon suffered his massive stroke showed Kadima would capture some 40 Knesset seats under Olmert's expected leadership – as opposed to several more that had been projected under Sharon – analysts said this was probably an initial "sympathy reaction" that could rapidly wear off. Some added that in the end, many intended Kadima voters will probably return to their familiar Likud home, even though the party's new-old leader, Binyamin Netanyahu, is not exactly their ideal choice to shepherd the troubled nation.
In the meantime, Jerusalem's former mayor is finally fulfilling his self-professed dream of claiming the prime minister's chair, even if it might be just for a relatively short season.
I vividly recall joking with Ehud Olmert when I last interviewed him in 2003. Having just left 10 years at City Hall to re-enter national politics, he was then Sharon's newly-appointed Industry and Trade minister, as well as deputy premier. As the video camera and microphones were being set up, I made small talk by noting that Olmert's new office view – looking out over a nearby bland building in the government complex in central Jerusalem – was not nearly as impressive as the one I had seen when previously interviewing him from his plush mayoral office next to the enchanting Old City walls. Knowing his transparent ambition to become Israel's top dog one day, I then quipped that, "But you will soon be sitting in the prime minister's office, with a pleasant view once again!" He laughed while snuffing out one of his famous Cuban cigars. Little did I imagine how soon, or how dramatically, that "joke" would become reality.
Olmert is a genuinely good man. But he is hardly the fulfillment of the average Israeli's hope to finally get a chance to sit in peace under their vines and fig trees with no one to make them afraid.
The former mayor's personal kindness was best illustrated to me when he took time to make an appearance at a friend's local wedding reception. Unlike Olmert, my friend was not some famous politician or wealthy businessman, but had simply served as the mayor's personal health trainer for a couple years at a Jerusalem hotel. The brief appearance was all the more impressive since it came only hours after Olmert attended heart-wrenching funerals for several victims of a vicious terrorist bombing the day before at the Hebrew University's Frank Sinatra café.
Although the groom greatly appreciated the visit, he recently told me he would never vote for Kadima under Olmert's leadership. I think that best illustrates the problems the puffing stand-in premier will likely encounter if he attempts, as widely anticipated, to secure broad voter approval to keep the job he has unexpectedly inherited.
Instead, it might well be Olmert's nemesis, Bibi Netanyahu, who will re-conquer the seat he occupied for three years in the late 1990s. He was prematurely tossed out of office in May 1999 after reluctantly acquiescing to Bill Clinton's demand that he evacuate Jews from a portion of Hebron, Judaism's second holiest city.
Another Israeli friend pointed out this week that Netanyahu was among seven premiers – beginning with Menachem Begin – who had not remained long in power after withdrawing from disputed lands under international dictates. The most notorious exit was the heinous assassination of Yitzhak Rabin in 1995.
My friend noted that the singular prime minister since Begin who “bravely resisted” intense world pressure to hand over disputed lands to Arab control was the Likud’s Yitzhak Shamir. He asked me if I thought it was mere coincidence that the demure Shamir was also the only Israeli leader who did not end his time in office either suddenly or prematurely (although he did lose the scheduled 1992 election to Rabin after serving as premier for most of the 1980s).
Some political analysts now suddenly view it as entirely possible that Netanyahu will take over the spinning government wheel. If so, the Likud leader insists he will demand that Palestinian officials disarm all terror groups before further land evacuations take place. Since that is as likely as hell freezing over, my friend expects Bibi might just break the mold and actually serve a full term as prime minister.
DAVID DOLAN
Jerusalem
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DAVID DOLAN is a Jerusalem-based author and journalist who has lived in Israel since 1980. His new DVD, titled “FOR ZIONS’S SAKE—REPORTING FROM THE LAND OF THE BIBLE,” is now available on both PAL and NTCS versions. Details are now posted on his web site, www.ddolan.com