JERUSALEM 10:00 PM
 

During my recent round the world tour, I pointed out in most of my venues that the future of the American-sponsored Road Map peace plan largely hinged on a man who is both increasingly elderly and extremely overweight—Ariel Sharon.  I noted that such a physical combination is hardly a solid recipe for future stability.  After the Israeli Prime Minister left the Likud political party that he helped found to form a new centrist party several weeks ago, I pointed out that the party was basically an ephemeral creation that revolved entirely around one aging, obese politician.  If he was not around for any reason to lead it, it would probably quickly fall apart, I opined.
 

Tonight we await further word on Sharon’s condition after he was rushed to Jerusalem’s Hadassah hospital shortly after 8:00 PM.  He fell ill while riding in his car near the Jerusalem Arab suburb of Abu Gosh, just ten minutes ride from the Jerusalem hospital.  Sharon’s senior aids quickly confirmed that the PM suffered a “mild” stroke, with some reports saying he had fell into unconsciousness.  A hospital spokesman has now confirmed that Sharon did suffer some sort of stroke, adding that he is able to speak and should be released from the hospital in the coming days.  Vice Premier Ehud Olmert, who served as Jerusalem mayor before joining Sharon’s second government in 2003, would become acting Premier if the current leader could not continue to carry out his functions.
 

One thing is already clear: Sharon’s sudden health crisis will become a factor in the upcoming March 28 national elections, no matter whether the veteran politician and former army general quickly and totally recovers or not.  It is my guess that this will prompt at least some traditional Likud voters who planned to back Sharon to return to their party, which will probably be led by the much younger former PM Binyamin Netanyahu (we will know that in 24 hours when the results of tomorrow’s Likud primary election are made known).  The same might be true for some usual Labor voters who were planning to back Sharon’s new Kadima (Forward) party but now think twice about abandoning their leftist party.
 

Israeli television has been showing scenes of jubilant Palestinians celebrating Sharon’s sudden hospitalization tonight in the streets of the Israeli-evacuated Gaza Strip.  Along with continuing rocket attacks and terrorist plots, that should serve as a fresh reminder of just how difficult it will be for any Israeli leader, Sharon or not, to make lasting peace with the Palestinian people.
 

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DAVID DOLAN is a Jerusalem-based author and journalist who has lived in Israel since 1980.  His new DVD, titled “FOR ZIONS’S SAKE—REPORTING FROM THE LAND OF THE BIBLE,” is now available on both PAL and NTCS versions.  Details are posted at his web site, www.ddolan.com