U.S. gets 25% of their oil from Venezuela! Let's see between Iran and Venezuela cutting off the U.S., the price of fuel in the U.S. is going to go sky high! We are walking through of field of land mines.....pray for wisdom for President Bush! (Better sell your gas guzzlers, for soon you won't be able to give them away!)Imagine! $200 to fill your gas tank!
Doomsdays 1 through 61. To come up with some likely scenarios in the event of an international crisis, his team performed what's known as a regression analysis, extrapolating the numbers from past oil shocks and then using them to calculate what might happen when the supply from an oil-producing country was cut off in six different situations. The fall of the House of Saud seems the most far-fetched of the six possibilities, and it's the one that generates that $262 a barrel.
2. More realistic -- and therefore more chilling -- would be the scenario where Iran declares an oil embargo a la OPEC in 1973, which Browder thinks could cause oil to double to $131 a barrel.
3. Other outcomes include an embargo by Venezuelan strongman Hugo Chavez ($111 a barrel),
4. civil war in Nigeria ($98 a barrel),
5. unrest and violence in Algeria ($79 a barrel)
6. and major attacks on infrastructure by the insurgency in Iraq ($88 a barrel).
Chavez Threatens to Jail Diplomats, Shut Refineries (Update1) Feb. 4 (Bloomberg) -- Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez threatened to jail diplomats and close refineries belonging to the U.S. unit of the state oil company in an escalating war of words with the President George W. Bush.
U.S. diplomats continue to engage in espionage in his country, Chavez told hundreds of thousands of supporters today during a government rally commemorating the 14th anniversary of his abortive coup attempt in 1992 against former President Carlos Andres Perez. He said he would jail U.S. diplomats caught spying, while challenging the U.S. to break diplomatic ties.
The two countries exchange tit-for-tat expulsions of diplomats earlier this week. Chavez expelled the U.S. naval attache to Caracas on Feb. 2, which was followed the next day by Washington declaring a Venezuelan diplomat persona non grata.
``If the government of the U.S. wants to break relations with Venezuela, and they take the decision, it would cost me nothing to order the closure of the refineries we have in the U.S.,'' Chavez said. ``Then we will see where (the price of) oil will go, or a gallon of gasoline. It would cost me nothing to sell oil to other countries in the world.''
Sell Oil Elsewhere
State oil company Petroleos de Venezuela SA's U.S. unit, Citgo Petroleum Corp. owns shares in four U.S. oil refineries and two asphalt plants, with a combined daily crude processing capacity of 756,000 barrels. The company also operates a 265,000 barrel-a-day refinery in Houston that's a joint venture with Lyondell Chemical Co. and has more than 13,500 U.S. retail fuel outlets.
Houston-based Citgo sells 8 billions gallons of gasoline every year, according to the company's Web site.
``We now sell 1.5 million barrels a day of oil to the U.S.,'' Chavez said. ``We have never missed our commitment.''
Venezuela could sell oil now going to the U.S. to India, China and Latin America, said Chavez, who said his government has proof of spying by U.S. diplomats.
During his speech, he read several e-mails that he said proved U.S. staffers were engaged in espionage.
Chavez, who was dressed in a red shirt and wearing his trademark red beret, said the South American country, which is the world's fifth-largest oil exporter, will also seek to build up its defenses by purchasing arms from other countries.
Arms Purchases
Venezuela earlier purchased 100,000 Russian AK-47s, and Chavez said he wants to buy enough weaponry to put 1 million men and women under arms in the case of an U.S. attack. The government will shortly submit a bill to Congress, seeking funds for the purchase, Chavez said. Beside more rifles, Venezuela will also buy rocket launchers, he said.
``We are in contact with countries where the U.S. can't do a thing,'' said Chavez. Chavez didn't name the countries.
The U.S. has attempted to block Venezuela arms purchases from Brazil and Spain.
Chavez, a former paratrooper, also accused the U.S. of trying to influence the outcome of December's presidential vote. Chavez said he hopes to win 10 million votes in December. Venezuela has 14 million registered voters.
To contact the reporter on this story: Peter Wilson in Caracas pewilson@bloomberg.netLast Updated: February 4, 2006 19:15 EST
Maranatha!
Deborah
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