The Omega Letter Intelligence Digest
Vol: 41 Issue: 13 - Sunday, February 13, 2005
"Blood, Fire and Pillars of Smoke"
Iran rejected a European demand to stop building a heavy water nuclear reactor in return for a light-water reactor offered by the Europeans.
Sunday's announcement is its clearest statement yet of its nuclear plans. Heavy water is necessary to the production of weaponized nuclear material, but light water would be sufficient if Iran's true intent was to produce energy for 'peaceful civilian purposes'.
Even more chilling was a statement from Foreign Ministry spokesman Hamid Reza Asefi who said Iran plans to become a major nuclear fuel supplier in 15 years.
"We intend to turn into an important and a major player in the nuclear fuel supply market in the next 15 years because there will be (an) energy shortage in the future," Asefi said.
It is important to view that statement in context. Iran has enough oil to supply its own domestic energy needs hundreds of years into the future.
"We welcome the European offer ... but this won't replace the heavy water research reactor at all. That will continue. We will pursue that," he said.
Iran's top leaders have been adamant in recent days that Iran won't scrap its nuclear program, raising the ante in the high-stakes nuclear standoff. The Iranians are also considering putting a halt to ongoing negotiations.
Asefi said Iran had long and intensive talks - "early steps forward" - with Europeans this week. He said Europe should step up efforts to show progress that justify the continuation of the negotiations.
"During the talks, we tried to make it open that the nuclear fuel cycle has economic justification and that we will continue our activities in this field," Asefi told reporters.
The plants in question can be used to enrich uranium, a critical part in nuclear programs. Uranium enriched to low grades is used for fuel in nuclear reactors, but further [hard water] enrichment makes it suitable for atomic bombs.
Iran allegedly suspended uranium enrichment and all related activities in November, hoping to avoid U.N. Security Council sanctions. The International Atomic Energy Agency is monitoring the 'suspension'.
But Iran also said its suspension of uranium enrichment activities are 'voluntary' and 'temporary". Europeans are trying to persuade Iran to turn its temporary suspension of dual use nuclear activities into a permanent cessation, hoping to succeed where Washington has failed.
Iranian officials now claim that any acceptance of a permanent freeze of its nuclear activities would collapse the government since its program is a matter of national pride and prestige.
Under an agreement reached with the European Union, Iran will continue suspension of its enrichment activities during negotiations about European economic, political and technological aid.
Iran has said it will decide in a matter of months whether to continue its suspension.
Assessement:
The stakes are getting higher as the Washington Post reports the United States is using unmanned drone aircraft to spy on Tehran's nuclear facilities in order to try and figure out just how far along Iran really is in its quest for the Bomb.
The paper also says the United States is probing Iran's air defenses, a necessary element in advance of any impending attack against Iran's nuclear facilities. The UAVs can use radar, video, still photography and air filters designed to pick up traces of nuclear activity to gather information that is not accessible to satellites.
The potential nuclear threat that Iran poses is real and it is exceedingly frightening. The most immediate threat is of the mad mullahs ruling the world's most fanatical Islamic regime eventally funnelling a nuclear weapon to al-Qaeda.
Terrorists would have no qualms about using a bomb since they themselves are invisible, and, anyway would be delighted to become martyrs. Any military retaliation against Iran becomes incomparably more difficult diplomatically when Iran's involvement can only be suspected, rather than irrefutably proven by the flight track of its missile.
The United States and Israel, thus, are justified in being exceedingly alarmed. In turn, their aggressive response is wholly justified. The problem is, a military strike, by either the U.S. or Israel, would fail to destroy all the dispersed facilities and, worse, would unite the Iranians and rally them around the mullahs.
That would be catastrophic, since the dichotomy about Iran is that, while its government is one of the most anti-Western in the world, the Iranian people themselves are overwhelmingly pro-West.
There are only three possible outcomes to the crisis, which is just now beginning to capture the attention of a mainstream media more concerning with the trial of Michael Jackson than the potential for the first genuine nuclear war in history.
The first is that the United States will strike a deal [almost certainly one that will be, from the point of view of Iran, a temporary 'hudna' disguised as a deal] whereby the US drops sanctions and guarantees Iran's security.
Given the position staked out by the Bush administration relative to the war on terror, it is also the LEAST likely.
The second is that Iran will abandon its nuclear program, stop supporting terrorism, and recognize Israel's right to exist -- something Iran has sworn it will not do under any circumstances.
The third probability is much too close to the Gog Magog scenario of Ezekiel 38 for comfort. Ezekiel's scenario would bring Russia into the conflict as the head of a wider Russian-Islamic alliance.
This scenario is, of the three, both the most frightening, and the one that most closely fits the existing facts.
Iran's entire nuclear program was built, designed and constructed by the Russians in exchange for the much-needed hard cash the mullahs are only too happy to provide in return.
Any strike against Iran's facilities would certainly involve a strike against Russian nationals working on the project sites.
And it would most probably be a joint US-Israeli operation, which would, in turn, harden a joint Russo-Islamic economic alliance into a cohesive and identifiable military bloc standing in direct opposition to the US-Israeli anti-nuclear alliance.
The Bible envisons that, in the last days, there will exist four seperate and distinct spheres of global power. The first, and most powerful, will the the revived Roman Empire of western nations dominated by the European Union.
The second, the 'kings of the east' corresponds to the growing anti-Western Asian bloc of nations, including the nuclear states of North Korea and China.
The third, the 'Kings of the South' is already developing as the increasingly powerful Organization of African States.
Finally, the Bible foretells the Russian-Islamic alliance of Ezekiel 38.
Missing from the overall picture in the last days is any mention of a fifth, overarching global superpower resembling the United States.
And, so far, everything seems to be pointing in the direction of Scripture. The only major obstacle to the entire end times's scenario bursting forth is the continuing existence of America.
It is unclear what happens to remove America from the prophetic record. One explanation is that the US finds itself on the receiving end of a Russian, Chinese or Islamofacist nuclear attack. All three are entirely possible, and would only require a misstep in the current pantheon of crises to bring any of them to pass.
The second explanation is more likely. The Rapture of the Church would decimate America more effectively than any nuclear strike. And it would be far more demoralizing to American resolve.
America is unlikely to suffer a military defeat so disastrous as to render it completely impotent without similarly destroying Gog-Magog in retaliation.
But the Rapture would accomplish the same thing without firing a shot, and, in the event that millions of Americans, including the top levels of government and the military, suddenly disappeared without a trace, there would be nobody against whom to retaliate, even if the political will to do so still existed.
No matter which scenario plays out in the end, it is difficult to imagine a third option.
Pandora's nuclear box has been opened, and no power on earth will ever put it back.
"And I will shew wonders in the heavens and in the earth, blood, and fire, and pillars of smoke. " (Joel 2:30)
"And when these things begin to come to pass, then look up, and lift up your heads; for your redemption draweth nigh." (Luke 21:28)
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