WHO IS TELLING THE TRUTH AROUND IRAN’S WEAPONS PROGRAM?

The Israeli newspaper blasted the headlines in the Hebrew language. My guide Amir said, “The paper says it all; ‘Israel Stands Alone.’ ” The informative and thought provoking article was addressing the recent assessment by the National Intelligence Estimate, (NIE) that Iran had stopped its research and development of nuclear weapons in 2003.  What angered the Israelis was the report cast doubt on Iran’s determination to obtain nuclear weapons.

Several individuals asked me why would the United States, especially President Bush, accept this report and “let Iran off the hook?” According to Israeli intelligence, which is some of the best in the world, Iran has been involved in not planning for a nuclear weapon but publicly states it is their right to have a nuclear bomb.  While Iran insist that its development of enriched uranium is for peaceful purposes and for energy,  anyone who knows the inner workings of the present Iranian regime actually believes the 3000 centrifuges are just for power alone.

The fact is Iran does not need to develop its own nuclear program when they have Russia, China and North Korea who already have nuclear weapons and scientists who know how to create them. I am not surprised that the NIE would present such a report. The difficulty in dealing with Iran is oil. Russia, China and North Korea receive much of their Middle Eastern oil from Iran.

It was also interesting that the report came out just a few days after the meeting in Annapolis, where the United States met with numerous leaders from Arab (Islamic) nations who have no desire for a war with the Persians.  I suggested to my friends in Israel that President Bush is between an “Iraq and a hard place.”  American troops are engaged in war in two major Islamic nations – Afghanistan and Iraq.  If America proceeds to attack Iran for its nuclear ambitions, then we have opened a front on a third Islamic nation. Not only does this stretch the U.S. military but it causes strict Islamic leaders to say, “We told you that America was in a new crusade against Islam!”

I suggested to my friends that with three years of negative publicity from the American press, President Bush may be working on his legacy as president. Most presidents spend the last year of their administration setting the tone for their legacy. Observe how the Administration is working to organize a Palestinian State along side of Israel.  The President, I am certain wants to be known as a peace maker and not a “war monger.” Because Bush was accused of faulty intelligence in going to war in Iraq, there is a concern that the intelligence indicating the Iranian threat is incorrect.  American intelligence has been accused of being very faulty in relation to the Middle East. However, as one Israeli noted, “The Syrians were working on their nuclear program for seven years and we discovered it only recently…the American’s didn’t know about it at all. So how can they be sure about Iran?”

It is possible President Bush is simply, “Letting the next President deal with the Iranian conflict.” In the event of an American attack, Iran has threatened to release 11,000 missiles into Iraq against our troops in the first minutes of a war.  The danger with the next President is if the liberals gain power, their platform will be “anti-war,” and their interest in attacking a threat to U.S. security will be weakened. This is what the fanatical Iranian regime is banking on. Presently in Iran it is about oil. Any war would cause disruption in production and cause oil prices to possibly rise above $150 a barrel.  Any destruction of refineries would create a long term economic impact on America and her allies.

At this time, Israel may be standing alone in this issue. However, we must not rule out that if it can be proven to the international community that Iran is secretly involved not only in a nuclear program but a program of weapons of mass destruction, then perhaps Israel will not need stand too alone in a future attack. Either we deal with this evil regime in the near future, or our children will be in grave danger in all 50 states.

Intelligence analysts are suggesting that Iran will have a nuclear bomb ready by 2010 or no later than 2012, which is only 2 to 4 years away. Since America is reactive and seldom pro-active (we react after the problem arises), perhaps we will respond after an Iranian fanatic has released a chemical in our water, or a nuclear bomb in one of our cities. Then the politicians will begin the blame game and wonder why someone didn’t respond to the threat earlier. Knowing the liberal mindset I am sure it will all go back to the previous administration – namely President Bush.

P.S. Some suggest that the United States is promoting this report to see if Iran will take the offensive and initiate a major nuclear program, thus showing their real intention. Others suggest that by America accepting this report it is actually a publicity “stunt,” and America and Israel will possibly strike Iran before the 2008 election. At this point I cannot see the U.S. initiating a conflict, but I can see the possibility of Israel initiating a surprise strike in the future – if the regime does not change in Iran.

- Perry Stone, Jr.