Israeli-Palestinian Cease-Fire More Likely Than Peace Treaty
By Julie Stahl
CNSNews.com Jerusalem Bureau Chief
December 27, 2004

Jerusalem (CNSNews.com) - It is much more likely that Israel will be able to achieve a cease-fire rather than a full-blown peace treaty with the Palestinians at this time, an expert here said.

PLO Chairman Mahmoud Abbas (Abu Mazen) delivered a hard-line message in his first official campaign speech over the weekend, demanding Israel leave the entire Gaza Strip and West Bank, including eastern Jerusalem, which Palestinians want to make the capital of a future Palestinian state, and the right of return for Palestinian refugees.

According to Palestinian opinion polls, Abbas is the frontrunner to replace Palestinian Authority Chairman Yasser Arafat -- who died in November -- in the Jan. 9 presidential elections.

The international community is hoping that if Abbas wins, he will dismantle the terrorist infrastructure, end incitement and implement diplomatic reforms in the PA, which could lead back to the road map plan and a resumption of Israeli-Palestinian negotiations.

Abbas said in his speech that there would be no compromise on Jerusalem and that he would not use weapons against any Palestinian. He said that those whom Israel calls "murderers," the Palestinians call "strugglers." The Palestinians, he said, "have political pluralism just like Israel."

Meanwhile, more than 500 prominent Palestinians called for an end to militant attacks and pressed for democratic reforms in a front page ad in Palestinian newspapers on Sunday.

"We reaffirm our legitimate right to confront occupation, but call for restoring the popular character of our intifada and ceasing actions that reduce the range of [international] support for our cause and harm the credibility of our struggle," said the group, which included senior PLO officials, cabinet ministers, lawmakers and intellectuals.

They also echoed Abbas' sentiments, calling on whoever will succeed Arafat to insist on Palestinian statehood in all the West Bank and Gaza, with Jerusalem as its capital and a "fair solution" for Palestinian refugees.

Speaking in response to Abbas' speech, Dr. Dore Gold -- who heads the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs and has served as an advisor to the prime minister's office -- said that while Abbas has denounced violence, his political positions are as radical as Arafat's ever were.

"Abu Mazen at least believes that Arafat's legacy of violence did not serve Palestinian interests, Gold told the Cybercast News Service. "That doesn't mean that Abu Mazen is in principle against armed struggle; it just means that tactically, he thinks it's self-defeating."

The Israeli military said that the past four years of violence and terrorism were not an intifada (popular uprising), but rather an armed conflict short of war.

Long before Arafat's death, Abbas, who was Arafat's right-hand man in the PLO for decades, had said publicly that militarizing what they call a popular uprising had been a mistake.

"In terms of his political positions, however, Mahmoud Abbas has as radical a line on issues such as borders, Jerusalem and Palestinian refugees as did Yasser Arafat, and it is important to keep that in mind in order to create a realistic strategy for the future," Gold said.

"It is more likely that we will be able to create the conditions for an Israeli-Palestinian cease-fire than we will be able to create the conditions for a full-blown peace treaty," Gold added.

"Those who recall his positions at Camp David in the year 2000 remember he was very hard line on the issue of right of return," said Gold.

The right of return refers to the Palestinian demand that several hundred thousand Palestinian refugees and millions of their descendants who have remained refugees in camps in Jordan, Lebanon, Syria, the West Bank and Gaza for decades be allowed to return to homes within Israel, most of which no longer exist.

Israel says this position is a non-starter since it would necessarily mean the soon of end of Israel as a Jewish state.

Israel also considers all of Jerusalem to be its eternal, undivided capital.

Electoral strategy

Israeli officials have expressed concern over Abbas' speech.

Israeli Vice Prime Minister Ehud Olmert linked Abbas' strong statements to his political campaign, saying that hardening his message on topics that are "particularly sensitive" issues for Israel was part of his "electoral strategy."

But he cautioned that Abbas could become a "prisoner of his own rhetoric."

Israeli Foreign Minister Silvan Shalom said that at a time when there was a "great atmosphere of hope" in the region and worldwide, "harsh statements such as these are not encouraging.

"You cannot speak of 'continuing the struggle in all forms' or to sell the illusion of the refugees, nor speak of Jerusalem in that manner," Shalom said in a radio interview.

Shalom cited what he called "a very extreme, very forceful speech" that Arafat delivered at the 1993 signing ceremony of the Oslo Accords between Israel and the PLO.

At the time, Israeli government spokesmen explained this speech as Arafat's "opening position," Shalom said, but it never changed throughout the negotiating process and "perhaps became more extreme."

Meanwhile, the Israeli cabinet approved procedures for Palestinian elections.

"The PA elections are very important in creating a leadership with which we hope it
will be possible to make progress in the road map process," Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon said before the cabinet meeting.

The road map process refers to the U.S.-backed peace plan, the first phase of which calls on Palestinians to dismantle the terrorist infrastructure before there can be political negotiations.