Jovial (30 Aug 2015)
"The Market Collapse and Predictions for next Jubilee Year"


At http://www.fivedoves.com/letters/feb2015/jovial21-2.htm I talked about how I thought that this year's Shmitta erasure of debt would be driven by Quantitative Easing.  I was right.  The stock market crased as I predicted, it crashed in the month of Elul as I expected it to follow history, and it crashed because of the exact treason I said it would, which was Quantitative Easing (QE).

Since this usually happens in the month of Elul during a Shmitta year, I decided on August 14th that the month of Elul was almost here so I moved all my 401K money out of the stock market and into the bond market.  I wanted to move it into gold, but didn't have that option.  But the bond market can't go down.  I put in the order to do that Aug 14.  The next business day was the start of the stock market slide caused by QE in China.  So I avoided a 15% loss of money that would have happened had I left my money in the stock market.

The other day, most people came to work talking about how much money they had lost in the stock market.  I was able to tell everyone I had avoided the loss they experienced because I understood God's calendar of things.

I said in January in the above link...

"Greece is threatening to defaut on its debt, and Russia basically already has as they went from surplus to debt and the rubble began devaluating on its own.... Japan decided to use Quantatative Easy (QE) to devalue their own currency, and Europe followed suit a few weeks later.... China is threatening to follow suit. If the whole world does it....could we get some sort of collapse based on a currency erasure of debt? Maybe. The ingredients are ripe for that to happen. If it does, gold and silver might skyrocket in value, and that's not a bad place to move your 401K until the storm blows over. "

As soon as China went to QE, their market crashed heavy; lost over 40% of its value.  We crashed over a two week period.  Gold went up 10% in value as the market went down, so had I had the option of buying gold, I not only would have saved 15%, but gained 10%.  I just did not have that option and went with the bond market as a save haven.

The worse case scenario did not happen but Greece got a last minute dose of reality and came to a deal and did not default.  Otherwise, it would have been a bad collapse.

The USA has actually benefited from everything that has gone over the past year.  It rose as most other currencies went down.

We are not out of the month of Elul yet, so I would not necessary pronounce us on the road to recovery yet.  But it is looking up, and if the last two weeks are it, this wasn't so bad this year.

I think the powers that be saw this happening too.  They don't like God's Laws, but they know it is there and that may be why the IMF announced earlier in the year that they would introduce a new reserve currency.  My guess is that won't happen now.  There were 3 options being considered

  • The Chinese currency
  • A currency based on the Chinese currency
  • A new currency

Neither of the first two options is likely to happen.  With the Chinese Yuan crashing, no one has faith in it or anything based on it.  And I really think it would be too risky for the IMF to introduce something new.  If no one bites, the IMF comes off looking bad and losing stature in the world.  A new currency would have only worked if all major currencies went south, which is what they were probably planning for.  Instead, the US dollar held strong as the currency people shifted to as they dumped their yuans and euros.

But we may have another year of being on "alarm status".  The Jubilee year starts on Rosh Hashanah and while the Jubilee year does not involve a release of debt, it does involve 2 other things;

  • return of land
  • freedom for slaves

Basically freedom for land and people.

Because it is a year to return land,  I would not be surprised if Satan's crowd tries to grab land away from Israel, but they will fail.  Could there be a real estate collapse in 2015-2016?  Maybe.

The Mortgage market collapse under the weight of over-valued houses in 2008.  Refinances were being approved for $100,000 houses valude at $150,000 because appraisers were directed to appraise high to get around the rules.  Since then it has over-leveraged itself in a new direction - raising the cap on how much they will lend people for a house.  It used to be people could not be loaned more than 38% of their income for their house payments.  Today they will go up to 44% easy and often up to 50% or more under the right conditions.  People are being approved for home loans they never would have been approved for in 2008 as lender sought to increase their profit margins by letting the loaner get over-extended instead of over-extending themselves.

But I am concerned for this situation in 2015-2016.  Why?  Because the burden of over-extending mortgages was shifted to people, and Jubilee is about freedom for both people and land.  What would freedom for people of their land entail?  Potentially a mortgage market collapse for people who bought too big of a house than they could afford.  I am not saying that is going to happen, just that I see it as a reason why we might not be out of the woods yet.

Shalom,

Joe