Beware the wars of late summer

Historian Barbara Tuchman characterized the events leading up to World War I as the "Guns of August."

While there is no statistical evidence that wars break out any more often in late summer than in other seasons, the world was torn apart twice during the 20th century: in early August 1914, and again on Sept. 1, 1939, when Nazi Germany invaded Poland. We've also seen a lot of late-summer violence the last few decades.

Saddam Hussein invaded Kuwait on Aug. 2, 1990, leading to an American-led air campaign and ground war in early 1991 that demolished the Iraqi army. On 9/11, 19 radical Islamic terrorists took down the World Trade Center complex and hit the Pentagon.

What can we learn from these dog-day cataclysms?

First, for all the rising pre-war tensions, the general slaughter to follow was mostly unforeseen. Experts thought August 1914 would lead only to a war "over by Christmas" -- not 500 miles of trenches from the North Sea to Switzerland, and 8 million combat dead by 1918. Even after Hitler invaded Poland in a lightning strike, no one dreamed that more than 50 million deaths would follow.

Second, these late-summer bloodbaths usually followed from the initial impression of aggressors that they'd face few consequences. After Munich, Hitler had no reason to believe that gobbling up Poland would lead to a world war rather than more of the same appeasement.

Saddam Hussein had no idea that America would react to a far-away border dispute by mobilizing a global coalition against him, and by bombing large swaths of Baghdad. Likewise, few imagined that nine years after 9/11, American troops would still be fighting in Afghanistan to keep the Taliban -- the former hosts of Osama bin Laden and al Qaeda -- from returning to power.

In short, professions of peaceful intent in the face of global tensions, or even noble indifference to dictatorial aggression, instead ensure that war follows.

Finally, in the ensuing wars, the United States lost thousands of soldiers when it was not well prepared -- and far fewer when it was. There was almost no American military in 1914 and little more when we declared war on Germany and Austria-Hungry in 1917.

America was once again woefully unarmed in 1939, when Germany started the European war, and not in much better shape when attacked by the Japanese in December 1941. As a result, in both of its victorious world wars the United States lost tens of thousands of troops.

A fully armed and mobilized volunteer US military forced Iraqi forces out of Kuwait with relatively few losses. Even in the long current slogs in Iraq and Afghanistan, fewer American soldiers have died than in single past battles like the Meuse-Argonne or Iwo-Jima. In short, America never went to war regretting that it was overarmed and overprepared.

We should keep such bothersome late-summer history in mind this August. The world is once again heating up with the weather. Iran boasts of its new nuclear reactor -- with more to come. A nuclear North Korean keeps threatening South Korea. Hezbollah and Syria are arming to the teeth with new missiles. And an assurgent Turkey is seeking an updated version of its Ottoman imperial past.

Meanwhile, America has unsuccessfully reached out to firebrands such as Iran's Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Venezuela's Hugo Chavez and Syria's Bashar Assad, while drifting away from its Indian, Israeli and European allies.

More worrisome, in times of 1939-like recession and staggering deficits, America is understandably talking of massive cutbacks in its military. Nations never reduce defense expenditures because they want smaller militaries, but because in tough times the public shortsightedly thinks that money is better spent on social programs at home.

The combination of provocative rivals abroad, our president's constant assurances that America has been at fault in the past and wants to reach out to enemies, and probable defense reductions should remind us to tread carefully this late summer.

Unfortunately, the past Guns of August teach us that war may be looking for those who are not looking for war.