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Israel, Lebanon: IDF and the Cease-Fire
August 21, 2006 20 06  GMT

Summary

Recent Israel Defense Forces (IDF) activity in Lebanon indicates Israel
will continue to conduct operations it considers necessary during the
cease-fire. IDF's activity also shows its intention to stay in Lebanon
until the United Nations deploys its peacekeeping force.

Analysis

On Aug. 19, Israel Defense Forces (IDF) troops conducted a raid on
Bodai, a town in northern Lebanon near Baalbek. On Aug. 21, an article
in the Arabic online edition of Al Jazeera noted the movement of Israeli
tanks into Marwaheen, a Lebanese village near the Israeli border.

Though this and other recent IDF activity might seem provocative, it is
actually a sign of the status quo that will be in place until the United
Nations assembles and deploys a force to Lebanon.

The tanks moving into Marwaheen were simply reinforcing the Israeli
position in one of several villages very close to the Israeli border
currently occupied by IDF. Israel has always intended to maintain a
military presence, which entails the movement of supplies and rotation
of vehicles, in this buffer area until the U.N. force is in place. This
reinforcement of Marwaheen can certainly be seen as further indication
that IDF intends to stay.

While IDF's Aug. 19 raid in northern Lebanon was not intended to be
discovered, it is a sign that Israel will continue conducting operations
it deems necessary during the cease-fire. However, the importance of
conducting a major military raid deep inside Lebanon was certainly
weighed against the stability of the cease-fire, and not all elements of
the Israeli leadership were convinced of the operation's necessity.

IDF officially denied that the raid was anything more than an
interdiction of arms shipments from Syria and Iran and claims to have
convincing evidence. However, the fact that IDF allowed the alleged
supplies to cross the border into Lebanon and move into and through
Baalbek, Hezbollah's foremost stronghold, before it intercepted them
seems suspect. If the shipment actually contained arms, it would have
been destroyed much earlier and would not have required boots on the
ground. Some sources indicate the raid targeted a major Hezbollah leader.

In addition to the Aug. 19 raid, IDF troops wounded two Hezbollah
fighters Aug. 21 near Shmaa. Initial reports said the militants were
armed; however, they apparently were not engaged until they approached
Israeli troops in what IDF described as "a threatening manner." While
this incident will certainly not help the cease-fire, it is remarkable
that more such incidents have not taken place. This evinces restraint on
both sides.

Israeli air force (IAF) activity is also noteworthy. Along the coast and
the Syrian border, Israel is closely monitoring traffic into Lebanon.
The IAF announced to Turkey and NATO that any aircraft from Iran that
passes through Turkish airspace and enters Lebanon will be shot down.
The IAF also insists that all planes flying into Beirut must first stop
in Jordan to undergo security checks, although this plan has not yet
been implemented.

While the shooting has, for the most part, stopped, Hezbollah and Israel
still have irreconcilable differences. The actual disarmament of
Hezbollah has yet to take shape; Hezbollah is dead-set against it, and
it is a must for Israel. Keeping Hezbollah from replenishing its stock
of arms will be a key part of maintaining the already shaky cease-fire.