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The Plot Against German Passenger Trains
August 21, 2006 18 20  GMT

German authorities announced the arrest Aug. 19 of a 21-year-old man of Lebanese origin in connection with a failed attempt to firebomb two passenger trains in western Germany in late July. Rather than an al Qaeda or Hezbollah plot, this appears to be the work of independent actors -- and amateur ones at that. The fact that the plotters succeeded in planting improvised incendiary devices aboard two passenger trains, however, suggests that mass transit in Germany -- and Europe -- continues to be vulnerable to militant attacks.

The investigation into this case began July 31 after authorities discovered a timed incendiary device (TID) inside an abandoned suitcase at Dortmund station. The suitcase had been turned in to the station's lost-and-found department after it was discovered on a train bound for Hamm. In response to the discovery, authorities began searching abandoned luggage at all stations and, on Aug. 1, the second TID was found in a piece of luggage that had been turned in the day before from a train traveling between Monchengladbach and Koblenz.

Both devices appear to have been made by the same bombmaker. Rather than containing explosives, they were made of bottles of gasoline and canisters of an inflammable gas, believed to be propane or butane. The devices, which were to be ignited by timers 10 minutes before the trains arrived at the Hamm and Koblenz stations, were designed to cause huge fires that would spread rapidly through the trains. Both devices, however, failed to function properly due to faulty construction, according to German officials. German police are investigating whether the suspect in custody and an alleged accomplice planted the TIDs on the trains.

TIDs and improvised explosive devices (IED) made by amateur bombmakers often fail to work for a variety of reasons, including the lack of redundant firing systems and poor design. However, a properly constructed TID ignited aboard a packed commuter train or airplane could easily produce a significant number of casualties. In this case, the bombmaker's inexperience probably prevented a potential catastrophe.

The suspect in this case, identified only by the name Youssef Mohammed E., had been under investigation since closed-circuit surveillance footage from the Cologne train station showed him debarking from one of the trains on which the TIDs had been found. German authorities, who posted the footage on the Internet, offered a 50,000 euro reward for information leading to the arrest of Youssef and his alleged accomplice. He was arrested in the Kiel train station, possibly as he was preparing to flee the country. German police also seized his suitcase, but found nothing incriminating. Initial reports on the arrest said Youssef was an engineering student at a Kiel university, but the city's two universities both said Aug. 21 he was not a student at either, though he had been living in a student hostel.

At first glance, the longstanding militant presence in Germany might seem to indicate this plot was connected to a larger organization. The country's Muslim immigrant and university student population has long provided cover for the Palestine Liberation Organization as well as Lebanese and Iranian militant cells. Hezbollah, for example, has long maintained a support structure in Germany, while Iran's Ministry of Intelligence and Security once demonstrated an ability to operate in the country with near impunity.

German authorities said, however, that Youssef claimed to have a brother who was killed during recent Israeli military operations in Lebanon and that his attempted attack might have been motivated by the conflict in that country, rather than by any connection to al Qaeda. Indeed, the relatively simplicity of the TIDs in this case tends to rule out al Qaeda, which prefers complex plots like those seen in the London and Madrid commuter train attacks. The simple nature of the devices indicates that Hezbollah, which has never had problems manufacturing effective IEDs or obtaining explosives in Europe and elsewhere, probably was not involved in the plot either.

The case does demonstrate the continuing militant attraction to this kind of soft target. Passenger trains are easily accessible, difficult to secure and lightly defended. Moreover, a successful attack against a packed train is almost certain to cause a large number of casualties. Although this appears to have been an attempt by amateurs, the threat was serious.