http://www.stratfor.com/products/premium/read_article.php?id=272888Lebanon: Turkey, the Potential Peacekeeper
August 17, 2006 21 56 GMTSummary
Turkey is likely to play a major role in the multinational force to be deployed in Lebanon to ensure Hezbollah does not threaten Israel. The projection of Turkish power into an Arab state is unsettling for many Arabs, who have not forgotten the long period of Ottoman colonialism. For most Arab countries, a Turkish presence in Lebanon will largely carry only a psychological impact. For Syria, however, the concerns are very real, since Turkish troops will threaten Damascus' political, military and economic arrangements in Lebanon.
Analysis
The Turkish media was buzzing Aug. 17 with reports of Ankara's potential dispatch of Turkish troops to Lebanon as part of the peacekeeping force authorized by U.N. Security Council Resolution 1701. Since France has now limited its offer of additional troops to 200, Turkey could wind up leading the international force.
Like other nations, Turkey fears the possibility that its troops could get caught in the crossfire of resumed Israeli-Hezbollah clashes in Lebanon. While a consensus within Turkey regarding this mission has yet to emerge, there are indications the government is interested in sending troops to Lebanon.
A Turkish deployment to Lebanon would mark the first time Turkish soldiers have been in the Levant since the World War I defeat of the Ottoman Empire, the predecessor of the modern Turkish republic. Given that the Ottoman Empire once dominated most of the Arab world, the deployment of a significant number of Turkish soldiers into an Arab nation will carry a psychological impact for Arabs, who are still trying to deal with the recently strengthened Iranian geopolitical incursion into their domain. For Syria, however, a Turkish military entry into Lebanon has more tangible implications.
The Arab states are not in a position to commit troops to the mission in Lebanon due to economic, military and political limitations. Egypt has said it will not contribute troops to the U.N. force, and Jordan and Saudi Arabia lack the ability to do so. Assuming they did have the resources, the countries would face numerous hurdles, such as the complications of their relations with Israel -- and potential outright Israeli opposition to such a deployment. Thus, the major Arab states lack a choice in the matter.
Most Western powers do not want to send their forces to Lebanon either. Even France appears to be backing away from its earlier position that it would be leading the U.N. force, possibly making Turkish troops the best option for the major Arab states. In the absence of a Western power leading the Lebanese deployment, Turkey could end up playing that role.
Turkey's relations with Israel and Iran are such that Israel would be happy to see Ankara managing the confessional state more efficiently than Syria's Alawite government, while Iran would not harbor too many objections to Turkish troop deployment in Lebanon because of Ankara's statement that it will not be involved in disarming Hezbollah.
This means the only problem Turkey could run into is Syria, given that to deploy a Turkish military force in Lebanon successfully would demand that Turkey develop a robust intelligence capacity throughout Lebanon, as well as establish links with of all of the country's sectarian groups. Damascus would interpret this alone as a threat to its interests in Lebanon -- not to mention that a Turkish deployment to Lebanon would mean Turkish troops would have Syria surrounded to the north and southwest.
The Syrians have not forgotten Turkey's 1998 threat to invade if Damascus did not surrender Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) leader Abdullah Ocalan. After an initial Syrian refusal, Turkey rolled tanks to the nations' shared border -- after which Syria expelled Ocalan.
Damascus is already coping with the pullout of its forces from Lebanon, which has made conducting its business in Lebanon quite difficult. Turkish troops trying to run the peacekeeping operation will become entangled with Syrians pursuing their interests in the country, which will put Syria in a very tight spot.
For Turkey, this is a major opportunity to assume a leadership role in the region. Ankara is fully prepared for this task militarily and geopolitically, given its generally good relations with all parties involved in the Israeli-Hezbollah conflict. Should Ankara assume the role of peacekeeper, it will enhance its status as an international player, considering that it has forces to its north in Georgia too. An entry into Lebanon would give Turkey a much stronger negotiating position with the United States with regard to PKK guerilla operations out of Iraq.
Ultimately, a Turkish military presence in Lebanon -- coming as Iran expands its influence beyond the Persian Gulf into the Levant -- is a sign of the weakening of Arab states, which have long had to deal with Israel on their own turf. Thus, the predominantly Arab Middle East increasingly will be dominated by non-Arab powers.