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Geopolitical Diary: A Window for Syrian-Israeli Dialogue
August 16, 2006 01 25 GMT
At the start of Israel's military campaign against Hezbollah in Lebanon, we discussed Syria's role in the conflict. Though labeled a Hezbollah sponsor, Damascus had no intention of getting militarily involved in Lebanon and inviting Israeli airstrikes on Syrian soil. Indeed, Syrian President Bashar al Assad's objective was to reinforce the idea that the Western powers would have to end their diplomatic isolation campaign against Syria and include it in negotiations to effect a political resolution in Lebanon. As a result, Syria hoped to recover its losses and re-consolidate its position as Lebanon's main power broker.
It appears that Syria is getting what it wished for. Israeli Defense Minister Amir Peretz said Tuesday, "Every war creates an opportunity for a new political process, and I am sure our enemies understand today they cannot defeat us by force ... we must hold a dialogue with Lebanon, and we should create the conditions for dialogue also with Syria."
Israel has long turned a cold shoulder to the Syrian regime. As far as the Israelis were concerned, the al Assad regime was a nuisance, but there existed no viable alternative worth the instability that would result from encouraging regime change. Israel and Syria had a mutual understanding that a direct military conflict between them would end in favor of Israel, and that Syria was better off sticking to rhetoric than making any serious provocations against Israel. In return, Israel maintained its silence following the February 2005 assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik al-Hariri when an ideal opportunity arose to destabilize the Syrian regime.
The conflict in Lebanon, however, has provided Syria with the ideal diplomatic opening. The issue of retaking the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights has haunted Syria for decades, and has remained almost an obsession for al Assad. His father, former Syrian President Hafez al Assad, laid a heavy burden on Bashar before his death, expecting him to maintain Syria's influence in the region and bring the Golan Heights back to the negotiating table.
In the spring of 2005, Syria was humiliated when its troops were forced to withdraw from Lebanon -- essentially leaving Iran (via Hezbollah) to defend Syria's interests there. Now that Hezbollah has claimed victory against Israel and Israel's reputation for military invincibility has been penetrated, Syria is brimming with confidence. That confidence was clearly conveyed in al Assad's speech Tuesday, in which he said, "We tell them [Israelis] that after tasting humiliation in the latest battles, your weapons are not going to protect you -- not your planes, or missiles or even your nuclear bombs... They [Israel] should know that they are before a historic crossroads. Either they move toward peace and the return of [Arab] rights or they move in the direction of continued instability until one generation decides the matter." Just as Hezbollah leader Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah said Monday that Hezbollah will be disarmed only on its own terms, al Assad is proclaiming that any peace negotiations will now be made on Syria's terms.
The Syrian regime is scared to death of finding itself in a situation in which Lebanon negotiates its own peace deal with Israel. Syria views Lebanon as its proxy, in which the economy, government and military institutions operate in tune with Syrian interests. Even after the fallout from the al-Hariri assassination and the so-called Cedar Revolution that swept through Beirut, the Syrian regime kept Lebanon in its grasp to ensure that a separate peace treaty with Israel would not be signed. Damascus knows that if Lebanon follows its own road to peace, Syria's chances of reaching a political resolution will be severely hampered. As the Syrians say, the road to peace between Israel and Lebanon and Syria must run through Damascus.
Syria must move quickly to reap the benefits of this conflict. Though Israel is now publicly considering holding a dialogue with the Syrians, the Israeli official who made the statement, Peretz, is not exactly the most popular figure in Israel at the moment. A political time-bomb is ticking in Israel: The government of Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert is under attack for its mismanagement of the war. Should the government come under the rule of a hardliner figure such as former Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Syria's reservation at the negotiating table could be revoked.