http://www.stratfor.com/products/premium/read_article.php?id=272534Lebanon: Nasrallah on Victory and Disarmament
August 14, 2006 18 44 GMT
Hezbollah media outlet Al Manar Television aired Aug. 14 a taped speech
delivered by Hezbollah leader Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah. Appearing physically
exhausted, Nasrallah declared a major strategic win for Lebanon and the
resistance against Israel. He also said that, beginning Aug. 15, Hezbollah
will send members to begin rebuilding the south and compensate families
whose homes were destroyed by Israeli warplanes.The critical portion of Nasrallah's speech centered on the issue of
disarming Hezbollah. Nasrallah said it was unethical for the Lebanese
government to put the question of disarming Hezbollah to the public,
particularly as Hezbollah fighters battled Israel while government
ministers sat comfortably in their air-conditioned offices. The
government's Christian faction has been the most vocal in its debate over
whether Hezbollah should be disarmed.Nasrallah delivered an important message to the Lebanese army: Think twice
before attempting to disarm Hezbollah forcefully. He also said others
should not use harsh or threatening language in discussions of the issue.
Nasrallah said the Lebanese army is incapable of confronting the Israeli
army and reiterated the necessity of keeping the resistance movement in
Lebanon alive to stand up to Israel should the need arise. He went on to
reaffirm Hezbollah's political legitimacy, claiming that criticism of
Hezbollah's takeover of Lebanon is unfounded since Hezbollah is part of the
government.It is clear from Nasrallah's speech that Hezbollah does not intend to
disarm fully in the near future. The leader has emphasized that Hezbollah
will absolutely retain arms in its territory north of the Litani River, and
that any disarmament discussions should be strictly confined to Hezbollah
positions south of the Litani.Nasrallah said he is open to discussing the issue of disarming within the
National Dialogue -- a series of meetings held in Beirut between the major
leaders of Lebanon's main Shiite, Christian and Sunni factions. The
National Dialogue meetings, however, repeatedly have been used by Hezbollah
as vehicles to stifle serious discussion of disarming militias in Lebanon
in accordance with U.N. Resolution 1559.Hezbollah's presence in the government has enabled the group to paralyze
the Lebanese political system whenever it feels its interests are
threatened. A return to the National Dialogue will not offer a resolution
to the crisis or add weight to the current cease-fire. Sunni and Christian
leaders in particular will be reluctant to join these talks, now that the
conflict has put them in weaker positions compared to Hezbollah. Any
discussion on disarming Hezbollah now will be on Nasrallah's terms.