http://www.stratfor.com/products/premium/read_article.php?id=272558

Geopolitical Diary: Implications of a Shaky Cease-Fire
August 15, 2006 02 57  GMT
 

The past 34 days of fighting in Lebanon has set off a chain of
unprecedented events. Hezbollah declared a "strategic, historic victory"
against Israel on Monday, and rightfully so; the invincibility of Israel's
military might has come into question. The importance of this reality
cannot be overestimated.

Hezbollah has gotten exactly what it was aiming for. As we have stated
throughout the conflict, an imminent cease-fire allows Hezbollah to emerge
effectively victorious. It hardwires the perception throughout the region
that a nonstate militant actor has defeated Israel (by fighting it to a
draw) in a conventional war. Regardless of what Israel states it
accomplished on the ground in Lebanon, Hezbollah has sustained itself as a
viable fighting force.

The battle of perception is what Hezbollah's patron, Iran, values most.
Iran has used its influence in Iraq, in concert with its nuclear gambit, to
reclaim its position as the regional hegemon. Activating Hezbollah in
Lebanon and exposing Israel's weakness -- when no Arab state dared to
confront the Jewish state militarily -- has only reinforced Iran's ability
to reconfigure the balance of power in the Middle East in favor of the Shia.

While Hezbollah, Iran and Syria are celebrating, the Arab regimes
surrounding Israel are beginning to reconsider the Israeli military
deterrent. Meanwhile, a tenuous cease-fire is hanging over Lebanon, with
enough caveats in place to make the entire agreement fall apart. If the
cease-fire does actually fall through -- which is extremely likely -- it
will probably not be due to a conscious decision by one side or the other
to breach it. Rather, it will be the inevitability of events that will lead
to its collapse.

The cease-fire is fraught with Catch-22's: Israel will not withdraw until
the Lebanese army deploys to the south, the Lebanese army won't deploy to
the south until Hezbollah disarms on its own, and Hezbollah says it will
not disarm, period. At the same time, Israel and Hezbollah have each
reserved the right to resume hostilities they feel threatened.

Hezbollah's leader, Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah, delivered a very telling
speech Monday, in which he essentially told the Lebanese army to think
twice before attempting to disarm Hezbollah south of the Litani River.
Nasrallah welcomed the return of National Dialogue talks with the leaders
of Lebanon's major factions, shedding light on Hezbollah's intention to use
its political prowess to gridlock the government once again and postpone
the issue of disarmament. Iran is not about to give up its most prized
militant asset in the region, and Hezbollah is feeling confident enough to
deflect any attempts to disarm it.

But Hezbollah has its own share of worries. The Lebanese army will not go
into southern Lebanon unless ordered to deploy there alongside U.N.
peacekeeping forces. If Hezbollah is confronted with a forceful attempt by
the Lebanese army to disarm its fighters, it will face the dilemma of
whether to open fire on its countrymen -- something Hezbollah wants to
avoid at all costs. With much of the country already in ruins, and with
frustration brewing among Lebanese over the conflict provoked by Hezbollah,
going to war against the Lebanese armed forces will only undermine
Hezbollah's position as a resistance movement working on behalf of Lebanon
against Israeli aggression. At the same time, the Lebanese army refuses to
get embroiled in a situation in which it will be forced to open fire on
Hezbollah fighters, especially as the group's success against Israel is
being celebrated by a significant number of Lebanese civilians. The dilemma
on both sides does not bode well for permanence of the cease-fire.

Meanwhile, Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert has to answer to a country
and military that is largely outraged by the results of the fighting. For
Israel, this shaky cease-fire is not the end -- it has maintained the
preponderance of its force and can revisit the issue of breaking
Hezbollah's back once again to reaffirm its military prowess in the region.
Whether Olmert will still be in charge if and when that revisit occurs,
however, is an entirely different question.