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Geopolitical Diary: The Terror Potential and War
August 11, 2006 07 58  GMT
 

The British opened the day on Thursday by announcing the discovery of a
plot to blow up at least nine airliners using liquid explosives --
possibly disguised as sports drinks. Technically, this is a pretty
ingenious move. After we, as airline passengers, have finished taking off
our shoes and our belts, holding up our trousers while someone pats us
down, we have depended on Gatorade to lift our spirits. There goes that
comfort. But then, Gatorade's colors always did remind us of something
fatal.

As technically ingenious as the plot may have been, we are struck again
that a plot was thwarted. Assuming that Tony Blair didn't stage the whole
affair in order to boost his poll numbers -- a view some of our readers
urged on us during the day -- it does indicate that Western intelligence
services are becoming fairly effective in detecting and thwarting attacks.
If it was an al Qaeda plot, actually tracking back to Osama bin Laden's
staff, it indicates that the network is pretty well penetrated. If it is a
group of al Qaeda imitators in Londonistan, it shows bin Laden is not
operating there and the Islamist radicals in London are fairly well
penetrated as well.

It also indicates that there were at least nine jihadists ready to go on a
suicide attack -- and where there are nine, there may well be more. Given
their technical creativity, the odds still favor the idea that they will
come up with something that is technically feasible and won't be caught by
security services. That, plus the increasingly non-trivial difficulties
that air travel imposes in order to maintain security, are significant
problems. At a certain point, security will paralyze the system.

Since the subject of paralysis of systems has come up, reports seem to
indicate that the U.N. Security Council has reached an agreement on a
cease-fire in Lebanon. The details are murky -- and as with all
cease-fires, this agreement would assume that both sides in the war agree
to it and that they actually adhere to it. Reports out of Hezbollah
indicate its forces don't intend to agree to a cease-fire that would
involve disarming them, and logic tells us that the Israelis will not
agree to a cease-fire that leaves Hezbollah armed. Moreover, the
transition from war to peace assumes a level of trust between the two
sides that doesn't exist. We simply don't see how a cease-fire could be
implemented in the Israel-Hezbollah conflict.

But the war in Lebanon and the threat in London do remind us that the best
terrorist organization around in the 1980s was Hezbollah. From suicide
bombings to blowing up jets to kidnapping hostages and assassinating
people, Hezbollah was the best. And they operated from Argentina to the
Middle East. These were extraordinarily capable covert operatives. Their
children are fighting in Lebanon right now.

Whether Hezbollah is defeated militarily or it is actually disarmed by
some peacekeeping force, it has a history of dealing with defeat by
lashing out with terrorist tactics. We must bear in mind that while
Hezbollah is focused on military operations and building international
credibility, it is probably not going to initiate terrorist attacks.
However, if it suffers a crushing defeat, its only options will be to go
quietly into that good night or else lash out once again. Going quietly is
not Hezbollah's style.

It is a thought to be considered carefully.