January 2006 Prediction by Arab Journalist Raghida Dergham: Iran and Syria Will Try to Use Hizbullah to Draw Israel Into a War
In January 2006, Raghida Dergham, New York bureau chief for the London daily Al-Hayat, published an analysis titled "Various Scenarios That Would Prompt an Israeli Strike on Lebanon and Syria." In one of the scenarios she described, Syria and Iran would try to draw Israel into a war by using Hizbullah and Palestinian factions, with the aim of easing the international pressure on them. [1]
The following are excerpts from the English translation of the article, which was posted on the author's website: [2]
Iran and Syria "Might Consider It in Their Interest to Provoke Israel Through Hizbullah and the Palestinian Factions"
"There is talk within international circles about various scenarios that would influence decisions relating to the existence of Syria and Hizbullah; these international circles also warn that attacking Israeli towns from across the Lebanese border could entail repercussions on all of Syria and Lebanon. This is not random talk, but is based on indications that Syria will most probably resort to measures that would prompt an Israeli attack on Lebanon and Syria. In addition, there are indications that Syria will stir up the Palestinian-Israeli scene by activating and empowering pro-Syrian Palestinian factions.
"When it comes to Lebanon, the most important link through which and on which measures will be taken is Hizbullah, which possesses tools allowing it to implement or disrupt any measures. That's why the responsibility of implicating Lebanon in an Israeli attack or invasion falls on the shoulders of the Hizbullah leadership, which is required to choose today between fortifying Lebanon against being used for revenge or any other reason and between sacrificing it to the benefit of Syria or Iran.
"At this juncture, the leadership in these two countries might consider it in their interest to provoke Israel through Hizbullah and the Palestinian factions, either to divert attention and pressure away from them or to mobilize anti-Israeli sentiment for local and regional consumption. The situations in Syria and Iran are completely different, but the means and tools for effecting change are the same for Damascus and Tehran, namely, [through] Hizbullah and the Palestinian factions present in Lebanon and those that receive money, aid and weapons from Syria and Iran."
"Any Cross-Border Operations That Hizbullah Would Conduct Into Israel Would Be Considered a Calculated Decision Calling for an Israeli Strike on Lebanon"
Full story:
http://memri.org/bin/latestnews.cgi?ID=SD127206
Kay