Dear John and Fivedoves,
for prayer purposes and information.
Be strong in Him brethren and stand,
Justin.
 
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Health Officials Fear Flu Pandemic

Asian avian strain may be mutating
 
 

August 27, 2004
By M.A.J. McKENNA
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution

International health officials are increasingly concerned that the elements giving rise to a long-feared international epidemic of influenza are falling into place in Asia, piece by piece.

The disclosure this week that pigs in China are infected with avian flu virus has fed worries that were already raised by the persistence of the current Asian bird flu outbreak and by research findings that the virus is mutating and becoming more virulent in several species.

China is trying to defuse international reaction to disclosure that it knew in 2003 that pigs were infected with avian flu. The animals pictures are in Hebei, China.

"We are looking perhaps at the evolution of a picture in slow motion," Dr. Klaus Stohr, coordinator of the World Health Organization's global influenza program, said from Geneva. "Perhaps we now have a unique opportunity to see how a pandemic unfolds."

Contingency plan

The concerns came on the same day that the United States released a draft of its plan for combating an influenza pandemic within its borders. The plan sets out guidelines for producing vaccines in an emergency, distributing antiviral drugs, rationing health care and potentially restricting gatherings and travel. The suggestions require more debate.

The government projected that a pandemic could kill up to 207,000 U.S. residents, hospitalize another 733,000 and sicken 42 million.

Release of the plan, which was begun in 1993, was accelerated by last year's SARS epidemic and by fears that this year's bird flu outbreaks could presage a pandemic. In the last century there were three pandemics, epidemics that are caused by the same organism and arise simultaneously around the globe. Each caused millions of illnesses and deaths; the worst, in 1918, is believed to have killed 675,000 Americans and 40 million others around the world.

Scientists believe all three pandemics were caused by a bird flu that jumped to humans. Pigs are also suspected of playing a role, because they can be infected with both human and bird flu viruses, allowing formation of new strains that could more easily infect humans and pass person-to-person.

On Thursday, the Chinese government sought to defuse international reaction to the news that it knew in 2003 that pigs were infected with avian flu. The disclosure, apparently not approved by authorities, was made by a Chinese researcher who told a scientific conference that samples taken from pigs in 2001 and 2003 harbored the H5N1 strain of avian flu.

China was under no obligation to disclose the infections because the animals were not sick, chief veterinary official Jia Youling said Thursday at a Beijing press conference.

The WHO called on the Chinese government to further research the spread of H5N1 and other flu viruses.

"The findings could be significant, but we need more details," Roy Wadia, a WHO spokesman, said from Beijing. "We are trying to answer at this point what the implications are."

China at focus

China has been one focus in the ongoing epidemic, which began in late 2003, spread across Southeast Asia, lapsed in April, and then surged again in July.

This summer, there have been flare-ups in China, Thailand, Vietnam and Indonesia, which all had outbreaks last winter. Last week, Malaysia recorded its first outbreak of H5N1, in chickens in a remote village, and a Vietnamese woman and two children were confirmed by lab analysis to have died of H5N1.

So far this year, 39 people in Thailand and Vietnam are known to have been sickened and 26 have died. About 200 million chickens have died of avian flu or been slaughtered to prevent its spread. International trade in poultry has been disrupted; some countries have refused to buy chicken from areas where bird flu has broken out, while others such as the European Union have threatened to cancel trade if affected countries begin to vaccinate chickens against the disease.

In Thailand, where avian flu has been found in 98 locations since July, the disease's resurgence has prompted government action.

A newly formed public-private group called the Influenza Foundation of Thailand ended a two-day meeting Wednesday by calling for vaccination of the entire Thai population against common strains of flu — a huge step in Thailand, where less that 1 percent of the population now receives flu shots.

There are currently no vaccines to protect humans against avian flu. Earlier this year, teams at St. Jude Children's Research Hospital in Memphis and at a government facility in London developed seed strains of vaccine for the WHO, which is distributing them to pharmaceutical companies for clinical trials. Researchers have not said how soon a vaccine could be commercially available.

http://www.ajc.com/news/content/news/science/0804/27birdflu.html?UrAuth=%60NYNUOaN[UbTTUWUXUUUZT[UcUWUcUcUZU]U%60UcTYWYWZV